ORU vs. Duke

[Ting]

15 minutes ago, ORUalum11 said:

Can Demari play in March and keep his [assumed] redshirt? 

Demari played in the conference tournament, I don’t think he is being redshirted? Your may be thinking of Herron

[Eaglefan 21]

Below is Jay Bilas's section about ORU and Duke where he picks how every team could win or lose. It's behind an ESPN+paywall but I still have my subscription for a few more days.

No. 5 DUKE vs. No. 12 ORAL ROBERTS

Why Duke can win: Rebounding, defense, elite size. Duke is a very young team that has been getting better and healthier over time. Jon Scheyer has guided this team to the best record of any first year head coach in Duke history, and he is now coaching the team he expected at the start of the season. The two most reliable and consistent players have been freshman Kyle Filipowski and veteran Jeremy Roach, both of whom have carried a significant scoring and rebounding load all season. A key for Duke has been the recent availability of shot blocker Dereck Lively II and bucket getting wing Dariq Whitehead. Lively is a shot-blocker and shot changer, and he is an active lob threat. The biggest key has been the emergence of freshman point guard Tyrese Proctor, who took over duties with the ball, and allows Roach to play off the ball and serve as more of a scoring and attacking guard. Proctor is an outstanding defender, as is Roach and Mark Mitchell. Duke blocks shots and gets second shots, but the Blue Devils do not force turnovers, sporting just a -1.1 turnover margin, 14th in the ACC. This is a gap protection and rim protection team that does not create a margin with offense or turnover generation.

Why Duke can lose: Perimeter shooting, youth, turnover margin. Duke gets second chance points, but does not generate easy baskets off of its defense. And, with an unbeaten home record of 16-0, the youth of Duke has shown up on the road. Duke is just 7-8 away from Cameron Indoor Stadium, with losses to Kansas, Purdue, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Miami...a few of those by 19 points or more. The Blue Devils are an inconsistent shooting team, hitting only 32% from behind the arc, 13th in the ACC and in the bottom third of Division I. But, Duke's offensive explosion in the ACC tournament was truly impressive. Proctor's improvement, Whitehead's development, and more spread floor spacing have made Duke harder to guard. Duke's defense has carried the team all season, and it will have to carry the team in the NCAA tournament.

Best win: Best then No. 17 Miami (68-66).

Worst loss: Blown out at NC State (84-60, they didn't score in the first 7.5 minutes and never made it close despite being a 5-point favorite).

Standout player: 7'0" Freshman Center Kyle Filipowski (3 double doubles to open his collegiate career and hasn't slowed since. 5-star prospect that was the No. 4 recruit).

Rebounding: The list of teams that are better on the offensive glass than the Blue Devils is a short one, with a 38% offensive rebound rate, 6th in the nation.

High scoring game: Kyle Filipowski led this team in scoring in 12 of their first 21 games, (dropped 29 at Virginia Tech on January 23) but Jeremy Roach has been the catalyst over the past month. Those two average over 35% of Duke's points this season.

Nugget: Duke has 0 NCAA tournament wins -- ever -- when seeded 6 or worse. They are 0-2 in such spots (losing in the first round as a 6-seed in 2007 and as an 8-seed in 1996).

How Oral Roberts can win: Turnover margin, 3-point shooting, high tempo offense, experience, fearlessness. Remember when Oral Roberts beat Ohio State in the NCAA tournament behind Max Abmas and current Texas Tech star Kevin Obanor? Well, this version of ORU is a better team. The Golden Eagles...(I miss the Titans...The Golden Eagles mascot was hatched from a paper mache egg and his name, "Eli," is an acronym for "education, life skills, integrity." Wait, wouldn't that be "Elsi?" But, I digress...anyway, the Golden Eagles have the nation's longest win streak and can really score, averaging 84 points per game, third in the nation. Behind Abmas, now a senior that has scored over 2,500 career points, ORU hits 11 3-point field goals per game, second in the nation, and ORU is sixth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio. Abmas has put up 22 points per game, with a high of 36, and has hit over 114 3-point field goals and 147 free throws. Abmas is a flamethrower that also leads ORU in assists. Connor Vanover, a transfer from Cal and Arkansas, is a skilled big man that has hit 97 career 3-point field goals, 45 of them this year. Vanover averages 13 points, 7 rebounds and 3 blocks, while Issac McBride, a transfer from Vanderbilt, adds 12 points per game and has hit 60 3-point field goals at a 41% clip. This is a low turnover team that has a star in Abmas that can carry the team.

How Oral Roberts can lose: Defense, rebounding. While ORU can really score, it is not a lockdown defensive team and can give up open looks from deep. But, in the NCAA tournament, this team can be another darling. Just don't be surprised. ORU has only four losses: Houston by 38, Saint Mary's by 8, Utah State by 10, and New Mexico by 7.

Best win: February 25 at South Dakota State (69-65, impressive win despite a 2-10 FG day from Max Abmas). Worst loss: No bad losses, but did lose to Houston by 38 points on November 14.

Standout player: Senior guard Max Abmas (top-10 scorer in each of the past 3 seasons, career best FT% this season, over 36% from 3 in all 4 of his collegiate seasons)

Efficiency: A top-20 team in both turnovers committed per game and assist-to-turnover rate.

High scoring game: Abmas is the first and second option on this offense, but 7-5 Senior Connor Vanover (transfer from Arkansas) double-doubled in both the Summit semis and finals.

Nugget: Their top-3 scorers all shot over 80% from the FT line. Flaw: Despite the height of Vanover, this team was outrebounded for the season.

Winner: Duke. Rebounding will be the difference. Duke is young, which is an issue, but they are bigger and better protecting the rim.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper. Abmas has been there before. Duke's young guys haven't.

[ORUalum11]

19 minutes ago, Ting said:

Demari played in the conference tournament, I don’t think he is being redshirted? Your may be thinking of Herron

I know. For some reason I thought you could play limited minutes and retain a redshirt. 

[Dr. Cornelius]

On 3/13/2023 at 10:10 AM, darrenj said:

Connor can't get in foul trouble and also if he can step out and hit 1 or 2 threes early that will open everything for the guards to get in the lane a bit. Just stay close in 2nd half and a young team like Duke will start to feel the pressure. 

I think the longer media timeouts will help Vanover's stamina but he has to stay out of foul trouble.

Without Connor guarding Duke's two 7 footers will be a huge challenge. Maybe use speed to run them a bit?

[SpaceManSpiff]

Statistical Scouting Report -

Bucketing Torkvik’s ‘Team View’ Comparison Results:

https://barttorvik.com/team-view.php?show=1&dots=1&zoom=1&tvalue=Oral+Roberts&year=2023&sort=&t2value=Duke&conlimit=All&toprk=0&scode=1111111111

The measures are offensive and defensive z-scores – i.e. the difference between statistical category actuals and statistical category means (college basketball national average) in standard deviations.

 ORU Offense:

Above -

• +2.55 - Turnovers
• +2.00 - 2pt%
• +2.07 - Eff. FG % (adjusts field goal percentage to account for 2 & 3 point shots)
• +1.68 - 3pt rate (percentage of fields goals attempted behind the arc)
• +1.29 - 3pt%

~Average -

• +0.69 - Block % (percentage of field goal attempts blocked)
• -0.57 - Assist rate (percentage of field goal makes that were assisted)

Below -

• -1.56 - FT Rate (i.e. free throws / FG attempts)
• -0.97 - Rebounding

 ORU Defense:

Above -

• +1.93 - Block % (percentage of field goal attempts blocked)
• +1.86 - FT Rate (i.e. free throws / FG attempts)
• +1.23 - 2pt%
• +0.87 - Assist rate (percentage of field goal makes that were assisted)
• +0.75 - Eff. FG % (adjusts field goal percentage to account for 2 & 3 point shots)

~Average -

• +0.39 - Rebounding
• -0.07 - 3pt%
• -0.62 - 3pt rate (percentage of fields goals attempted behind the arc)
• -0.27 - Turnovers

Below -

• None

 Summary for ORU:

 Offense

• ORU 1) does not turn the ball over, 2) shoots the ball well, and 3) takes more threes than most teams. ORU does not get to the foul-line and is not a good offensive rebounding team. (Not surprising because our big men often shoot from the outside.)

 Defense

• ORU 1) blocks a fair number of FG attempts, 2) does not send the other team to the free throw line, and 3) defends the field well from inside the arc. (Connor's blocks + altered attempts probably doing some heavy lifting on opponent 2pt%.)
• ORU does not force turnovers or rebound especially well.

 

Duke Offense:

Above –

• +1.94 - Rebounding
• +1.11 - Assist rate (percentage of field goal makes that were assisted)

~Average -

• +0.25 - Eff. FG % (adjusts field goal percentage to account for 2 & 3 point shots)
• +0.40 - 2pt%
• +0.03 - Turnovers
• -0.44 - Block % (percentage of field goal attempts blocked)
• -0.39 - 3pt rate (percentage of fields goals attempted behind the arc)
• -0.20 - FT Rate (i.e. free throws / FG attempts)
• -0.15 - 3pt%

Below -

• None

 Duke Defense:

Above –

• +1.58 - 3pt%
• +1.57 - Eff. FG % (adjusts field goal percentage to account for 2 & 3 point shots)
• +1.47 - FT Rate (i.e. free throws / FG attempts)
• +1.31 - Block % (percentage of field goal attempts blocked)
• +1.20 - 2pt%
• +0.90 - Rebounding

~Average –

• +0.56 - 3pt rate (percentage of fields goals attempted behind the arc)
• +0.56 - Assist rate (percentage of field goal makes that were assisted)
• -0.70 - Turnovers

Below -

• None

 Summary for Duke:

Offense

• Duke dominates the offensive glass and appears to hit the open man well. Otherwise, they seem to be a middling offense as their statistics are not far from the mean.

Defense

• Duke appears to be a great defensive team. Duke 1) forces poor three-point shooting, 2) does not send the other team to the free throw line, 3) blocks a fair number of FG attempts, 4) forces poor two-point shooting, and 5) rebounds well.
• Duke does not force turnovers. Thus, it's not something they’ve relied on to generate points.

 

Final Thoughts:

Duke does not send their opponents to the free-throw line. However, ORU does not rely on getting to the foul-line to win.

The statistics also indicate that Duke does not get to the line much different than average. I’m curious if bully-ball could cause our typical game flow to be off. ORU needs their experience to keep a level head if officials give Duke some calls – since it would be non-typical for this ORU team.

It would be great to force turnovers in March, but this is not something we can reasonably expect from this ORU team. And Duke does not seem to turn the ball over more than average.

In addition to shooting well and limiting turnovers, ORU needs to focus on getting defensive rebounds. If ORU rebounds well, they have a chance to win.

 

[ORU40]

20 minutes ago, Eaglefan 21 said:

How Oral Roberts can lose: Defense, rebounding. While ORU can really score, it is not a lockdown defensive team and can give up open looks from deep. But, in the NCAA tournament, this team can be another darling. Just don't be surprised. ORU has only four losses: Houston by 38, Saint Mary's by 8, Utah State by 10, and New Mexico by 7.

Best win: February 25 at South Dakota State (69-65, impressive win despite a 2-10 FG day from Max Abmas). Worst loss: No bad losses, but did lose to Houston by 38 points on November 14.

Standout player: Senior guard Max Abmas (top-10 scorer in each of the past 3 seasons, career best FT% this season, over 36% from 3 in all 4 of his collegiate seasons)

Efficiency: A top-20 team in both turnovers committed per game and assist-to-turnover rate.

High scoring game: Abmas is the first and second option on this offense, but 7-5 Senior Connor Vanover (transfer from Arkansas) double-doubled in both the Summit semis and finals.

I was looking at our stats earlier this morning, and IMHO think Jay hits the nail on the head, "Max is our first and second option on offense."  Max has to shoot well for us to beat a quality team like Duke! In our 4 losses (all to good teams on the road) he didn't shoot well; 4-11 FG & 2-6 3fg at St Mary's, 1-13 FG & 1-9 3fg at Houston, 5-12 FG & 1-6 3fg at Utah St. and 10-22 FG & 3-13 3fg at New Mexico.

We can beat less talented teams when Max has an off night. And please don't get me wrong, our role players will need to play well also, we'll need the entire team to play at their best, but most importantly we need Max at his best. Max has to be our leader and have a huge game for us to beat Duke!!

 

 

[Keenan Henderson]

This is a match up of classic differences: youth vs experience, size vs shooting, and blue blood vs mid major.  Which style will win?   How does ORU force turnovers and speed up the game?  How can the Eagles keep Duke off the offensive boards? Key questions.

[theeagleman5]

ORU will need to run Duke into the ground and make this a high scoring affair....MUST hit our open 3 point shots and it's likely going to take Max and at least one other player having a monster game.....Vanover is likely going to be pushed around inside....if he gets into foul trouble ORU is in BIG trouble....we need 30 strong minutes from our big guy.....

[ron]

I don't know how our players sleep at night right now or our coach for that matter. I can't even keep it together to fill out the whole bracket. Honestly, who cares about the rest of it. I'm more of an ORU fan than a basketball guy. All I can maintain focus on is how ORU could do. We basically need everyone to play like they can. On a good day, we have got these guys! We need a good day!

[Keenan Henderson]

Anybody know when the team leaves for Orlando?  Maybe tonight

[darrenj]

54 minutes ago, Dr. Cornelius said:

I think the longer media timeouts will help Vanover's stamina but he has to stay out of foul trouble.

Without Connor guarding Duke's two 7 footers will be a huge challenge. Maybe use speed to run them a bit?

Can't get caught up in half court game. Even on made baskets have to get the ball in and push the pace. If there is an open 3 just have to take it as buckets near the goal will be very hard to get. 

If Vanover gets pinned down low he can't pick up unnecessary fouls. 

They will try to be very physical and turn it into a Houston type of game. It will be interesting to see what conference the refs come from. 

As long as not Big 12 refs who basically let games turn into football. 

[dbl78]

23 minutes ago, Keenan Henderson said:

Anybody know when the team leaves for Orlando?  Maybe tonight

This afternoon.

[Old Titan]

Observations:

• I'm guessing Duke will make every effort to restrict Max and force the other 4 to beat them instead.  Max is familiar with that approach, but not from such talented players since the Houston debacle.  How he handles the pressure is paramount.
• Kareem and Carlos will not be able to take the ball and "back down" the taller Duke defenders and must instead rely on slashing to the basket and shooting pull-ups if they can't get to the rim.
• ORU's active hands on defense may cause problems for Duke's young guards, who can be turnover-prone.
• There is a thin line between spreading out a defense when running your offense, as opposed to the defense pushing you out of your sets while trying to run your offense.  ORU must make sure they are only as far away from the basket as they want/need to be with the ball, and not playing into Duke's hands literally and figuratively.
• ORU's offense is tailor-made to upset a team like Duke by simply shooting over them.  The key is getting open looks and knocking down a decent percentage.
• For the first time since Houston, Connor may find someone in his face at the arc who can contest his 3-point shot.  Hoping he can surprise his defender with some of those mid-range shots he's been effectively knocking down of late and that they may not be expecting.
• First team to 12 three-pointers wins.

Extra Thought:  cracks me up how most every "expert" uses the same reason why a P5 team is going to win over a low-to-mid-major team - "They're taller and more athletic".

Well, duh - when was the last time you saw a P5 team that WASN'T taller and more athletic than a low-to-mid-major team?

And yet, they lose EVERY YEAR when they are (quote/unquote) "not supposed to" (at least on that day) to smaller, less-athletic teams.

That's because it's hard-to-impossible for these prognosticators to quantify experience, and execution, and heart on squads they've rarely watch play.

THOSE are the reasons little guys beat the big guys whenever they do - NEVER becuase they themselves are taller and more-athletic.

[ORUIllini]

For me, something to watch for early is Vanover shooting and making his 3's. If he takes em early and is making them, I like ORU's chances.

[SonofaLegend]

One of the reasons I was hoping for Duke, is the belief that it's hard for their players to take ORU seriously. I saw a quote from one of their players that said something like "Yeah, well obviously we are not over looking them, but we should be able to handle them." And then going on to discuss second and third round matchups. Their mentality is probably something like ours is going in to Sioux Falls. The more big name analysts that predict an upset, will only give them bulletin board material, and focus their expectations. 

[SpaceManSpiff]

Another thing that national media keeps bringing up is Duke's size… NDSU plays a 6'10" (Morgan) and 6'11" (Nelson). This is not completely unfamiliar territory going up against a sizable opponent.

I dug into some individual stats, and Nelson is the better offensive player than Filipowksi statistically.
 

Name	FGA	FGA Per Game	TS%	eFG%	FTA/FGA	FT%
Filipowski, Kyle	406	11.94	0.541%	48.90%	40.40%	77.40%
Nelson, Grant	382	11.58	0.587%	55.40%	41.10%	72.00%

Better shooting stats.

Shot Positioning	% shots at rim	% shots 2pt J	%of shots 3pt
Filipowski, Kyle	52.20%	18.70%	29.10%
Nelson, Grant	45.00%	30.60%	24.30%

More diversified shot selection. (Keeps the defender guessing.)

FG% by Position	FG% at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers	3FG%
Filipowski, Kyle	57.10%	32.90%	29.70%
Nelson, Grant	69.20%	47.00%	26.90%

Better at the rim and on jumpers.

Assist% by Position	%assisted at rim	%assisted 2pt J	%assisted 3s
Filipowski, Kyle	50.40%	56.00%	91.40%
Nelson, Grant	26.10%	12.70%	80.00%

Filipowski relies on teammates passing more than Nelson. Nelson seems to be able to create his own shot more.

Thompson did a good job on the ball against Nelson - I am assuming we put him on Filipowski and Vanover shifts on help to hopefully block a few shots.

Possession level data pulled from:

https://hoop-math.com/Duke2023.php

https://hoop-math.com/NorthDakotaSt.2023.php

[ttowncount]

19 minutes ago, SpaceManSpiff said:

Another thing that national media keeps bringing up is Duke's size… NDSU plays a 6'10" (Morgan) and 6'11" (Nelson). This is not completely unfamiliar territory going up against a sizable opponent.

I dug into some individual stats, and Nelson is the better offensive player than Filipowksi statistically.
 

Name	FGA	FGA Per Game	TS%	eFG%	FTA/FGA	FT%
Filipowski, Kyle	406	11.94	0.541%	48.90%	40.40%	77.40%
Nelson, Grant	382	11.58	0.587%	55.40%	41.10%	72.00%

Better shooting stats.

Shot Positioning	% shots at rim	% shots 2pt J	%of shots 3pt
Filipowski, Kyle	52.20%	18.70%	29.10%
Nelson, Grant	45.00%	30.60%	24.30%

More diversified shot selection. (Keeps the defender guessing.)

FG% by Position	FG% at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers	3FG%
Filipowski, Kyle	57.10%	32.90%	29.70%
Nelson, Grant	69.20%	47.00%	26.90%

Better at the rim and on jumpers.

Assist% by Position	%assisted at rim	%assisted 2pt J	%assisted 3s
Filipowski, Kyle	50.40%	56.00%	91.40%
Nelson, Grant	26.10%	12.70%	80.00%

Filipowski relies on teammates passing more than Nelson. Nelson seems to be able to create his own shot more.

Thompson did a good job on the ball against Nelson - I am assuming we put him on Filipowski and Vanover shifts on help to hopefully block a few shots.

Possession level data pulled from:

https://hoop-math.com/Duke2023.php

https://hoop-math.com/NorthDakotaSt.2023.php

Good stuff, SpaceMan!  Thanks for sharing. 

[Dr. Cornelius]

44 minutes ago, SpaceManSpiff said:

Thompson did a good job on the ball against Nelson - I am assuming we put him on Filipowski and Vanover shifts on help to hopefully block a few shots.

I agree that Kareem/Pat are key as initial defenders.

But in all the national talk about Duke's size there's one thing to remember... there's a big difference between 7' and 7'5"!!

Have Lively and Filipowski  EVER gone up against a player taller than them? Could take some adjustment.