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ORU vs. Duke


ORUSwagger

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1 hour ago, RandomDukeFan said:

With apologies in advance for the length… thought I’d share an insiders Duke view while I’m waiting for 7 PM to get here.

Thank you for sharing this on our board. It's great to have your insider thoughts. You are always welcome here. Im sure on any night other than tonight, we could be good friends 🙂 

The amount of talent that your team has is incredible. The thing we ORU fans have going for us is that your talented guys are young and maybe not as seasoned as our squad. Will be a great test for our guys trying to prove their mettle against 5 NBA talent level players after dismantling the one Grant Nelson in the conference finals. I think our ORU guys have an amazing opportunity tonight to showcase their games on the biggest stage ever, and I don't think they will be nervous. This is Kareems opportunity to show his skills. I think Max will be in more of a killer mentality, and hopefully he is on his deadly shooting game. If he is, he can go full scorer mode, Mcbride needs to be in dribble penetration attack mode, and Kareem can play facilitator.

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The defense has improved throughout the season and will need to be solid tonight.  If Duke is forced to shoot three's or mid range jumpers then ORU can live with that.  We just don't want to turn the game into a layup line or dunk fest.  Make the Blue Devils take tough shots and then the Eagles rebound the ball.  

It may not be a race to 80 game, more like late 60s or early 70s in terms of points scored.

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As we get closer to game time, just wanted to take a moment to reflect on what a special season its been no matter what happens tonight. @Old Titan asked if this season was more satisfying than the 2021 run to the Sweet Sixteen. Im not sure if it would have been at 18-0 with a loss in Sioux Falls but winning big in the championship was a great moment for ORU basketball. Can't remember a game like that for ORU that wasn't a nailbiter or a heartbreaker and gave us a chance to appreciate the guys who got us there.

Now ORU gets a chance to take the floor in prime time against DUKE, the winningest team in NCAA tournament history. This is how you build a program beyond a one year Cinderella tourney run.

Having said that, here are some things I like about ORU's matchup against the Blue Devils:

  • Defensively, Duke is a known quantity. Tough, half court man defense, nothing exotic. Hopefully ORU can take advantage of the switches, defending under screens, and aggressive play in the passing lanes to create scoring opportunities. Duke plays hard on defense but doesn't create a lot of turnovers, ORU doesn't give away a lot of turnovers so hopefully we can limit easy buckets.
  • Vanover. Vanover. Vanover. I know this is obvious but how they defend Conner is important to how long he is on the floor on the defensive end. Also, 7'5 is a difference, no matter how many talented 7 footers they have. Two random tourney games, UC-Irvine vs Louisville in 2015(?) with Mamdou Ndiaye and 2019 with UCF featuring Tacko Fall vs Duke show this. These teams lost in one possession games but nearly pulled off upsets with big guys patrolling the paint. 
  • Defensive rebounding. There seems to be a narrative that ORU is a bad rebounding team that will get owned on the glass (and maybe we will) but ORU ranks in the top 30 of defensive rebounding, although our porous numbers on the offensive end have hurt. I trust that Mills has a plan to keep their guys off the boards much like we did vs NDSU. I realize NDSU isn't Duke but they killed us on the glass in Tulsa and Nelson destroyed SDSU before ORU made the necessary adjustments in the championship.
  • Experience. Duke has been a trendy Final Four pick in the East and most things I have seen speculate about how Duke will deal with Edey and Purdue. Surprisingly to me, ORU hasn't got much run as an upset pick. But this team has shown they won't be overwhelmed by the moment.

My prediction: ORU 78-73. WAR (GOLDEN) EAGLES 

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What, you think I'm gonna jinx us, buying into the "5/12 upset" rat poison?

Duke 82, ORU 74.  #HappyPappy?  #TrustTheProcess 

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They're selling 2023 "Road to the Final Four" T-shirts in the bookstore. I didn't buy one today. It felt presumptuous.

Here's hoping I can go back and buy one tomorrow ...

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In my defense, I picked ORU to lose in my official bracket (just like 2 years ago) but I picked a win on the board in this year's conference final. That's my logic 😄

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Duke is an elite defensive team and average offensive team.

Best case scenario would be for ORU to make a couple threes early and put the pressure on Duke to score.

Defensive rebounds to end their possession is key. Everyone has to put max effort to box out.

ORU by 5 - 76-71.

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FWIW:  the late money in Vegas is coming in on ORU; the line at some books has dropped to Duke (-5.5).

A case of "smart money", or "follow the leader"?

Time will tell...

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There were 200 FANS at the pre-game dinner in Orlando!! The cafe held 300.

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The dinner. Not sure at what point this was taken.

Orlandodinner.thumb.jpg.901f878f6b1744047294f05401483eeb.jpg

 

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