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Summit League 22-23 Predictions/Results


TrueBlue82

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Jacks hold on...beat NDSU...SDSU will be our main competition in Sioux Falls it seems....🤩

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56 minutes ago, ORUalum11 said:

Zeke Mayo is lighting up NDSU right now. 

The next feature in The Mitchell Report. 

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Breaking News:  Zeke Mayo is still inexplicably wide open.

Defense optional today in Brookings.

Stay tuned for the "Zeke Mayo for Player Of The Year" campaign this coming week from Greg Mitchell, the Reaching The Summit podcast homers, and the clowns-in-ties at Midco Sports.

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Western Illinois stages a comeback to beat Omaha 75 to 72. They were down by 12 at halftime. Massner scored 26 points. 

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Road wins were the name of the game in the Summit today, as the visiting team won four of the five games, causing a significant shift in the +/- analysis.  ORU extends its lead further, and Western and St. Thomas made their claim for the upper tier of the conference.  But, the Necks and Tommies ascendance into 'Plus" territory may be short-lived, as they will be challenged to hold their home court advantage during next week's action against KC and ORU.

Meanwhile, is there a wilder roller coaster ride than the "USD Coyote experience" over the past ten days?  USD loses by 3 at Western, breaks St. Thomas' home winning streak, is pummeled in historic fashion at ORU, knocks off NDSU at home, then falls to Summit league bottom feeder North Dakota.  Crazy... 

ORU +4

SDSU +1

Western +1

St Thomas +1

NDSU - even

KC - 1

Denver -2

USD -2

Omaha -4

UND - 10 seed

 

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Our average margin of victory in the Summit this season is 22.16 points. Over the last 4 games it's 33. 
 

According to the announcer, the 2nd best team in the Summit (coming in to tonight) was UMKC at like 3.5 points. I wonder if there will be anyone left with a margin of victory. 

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With UND surprisingly pulling off their third conference win of the year, I have been forced to switch the running tabulation to a straight "win on the road is a plus, loss at home is a minus".  Omaha now needs a road win at UND on Saturday to move out of last place.

Travel partners ORU and KC pull off nice road victories tonight.

ORU +6

SDSU +3

NDSU +1

KC - even

Western - even

St Thomas - even

USD -1

Denver -2

UND - 3

Omaha -4

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Only one road team won today - I wonder who that was! 🤩

ORU +7 (SDSU can only tie ORU now, with four games left)

SDSU +3

NDSU +1

KC - even

St Thomas - even

USD -1

Western -1

Denver -2

UND - 3

Omaha -4

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12 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said:

ORU +7 (SDSU can only tie ORU now, with four games left)

.....and a total collapse of ORU during that four game span.  Ain't gonna happen!! 🤨

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Based on the current Summit standings and a projection of the outcome of future games, the Summit tournament seeding breaks down into four categories:

Champion (1 seed): ORU

Runner-up (2 seed) SDSU

Parity (seeds 3-7): NDSU, Western, UST, KC, USD

Play on Friday (seeds 8-10):  Denver, UND, Omaha

So, here are today's questions... Since ORU will play the winner of the 8/9 game, of the three "play on Friday" teams, which matchup would be best/worst for ORU?

And then, on Monday, ORU would play the winner of the 4/5 game, which will include two teams from the "parity" group.  Which of these teams would you want ORU to play, and which ones cause the greatest concern?

For me, the best Saturday match-up for ORU (in order) would be:

1 UND

2 Denver

3 Omaha

Omaha has played us tough twice, Denver has no outside shooting (and we have the Condor to protect the inside), and while UND has been on a roll lately, it's been mainly against weaker competition.  So, I'd love to see UND and Denver play in the 8/9 game.

Of the 5 parity teams, I think ORU matches up best against:

1. USD

2. KC

3. Western

4. UST

5. NDSU  

USD has been up and down all season, but as we saw in Tulsa, Plitzuweit is a shadow of his former self, and the Coyotes' fortunes run through him.  KC peaked earlier this year at Mabee Center, but have been 5-5 since, and ORU dominated the Roos in KC.  Western and UST both have very good outside shooters that can cause significant damage when they get hot, which is the best way for an underdog team to pull an upset in Sioux Falls.  Finally, NDSU has the best all-around team of the parity group, and a lot of experience.  Based on today's standings, NDSU will probably get the 3 seed, and USD the 7th, leaving the 4/5 game to feature two of KC, Western, UST, but a lot can move in two weeks.

The ideal scenario is for UST to fall into the 6 seed, then knock off the three seed and two seed in consecutive nights, leaving ORU to play UST in the championship game with the automatic bid already secured.  Not likely, but we can dream!

 

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3 minutes ago, TrueBlue82 said:

Based on today's standings, NDSU will probably get the 3 seed, and USD the 7th, leaving the 4/5 game to feature two of KC, Western, UST, but a lot can move in two weeks.

NDSU in the 3rd seed is what I am hoping for. SDSU and NDSU both on the opposite side of the bracket.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Cornelius said:

NDSU in the 3rd seed is what I am hoping for. SDSU and NDSU both on the opposite side of the bracket.

Came to say exactly this. I was also still hoping St. Thomas might fall to #6 but looks like they end up in the 4/5 game. Can't ask for too much though! 😄

Is this the first Summit tournament ORU would be on the opposite side of both Dakota States? 

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1 hour ago, ManiacAlum said:

Is this the first Summit tournament ORU would be on the opposite side of both Dakota States? 

To answer my own question- In the 12 Summit League tournaments that ORU, NDSU, and SDSU have shared (2009-2012; 2015-2022), ORU has had at least one of them in the same half of the bracket every year but once- 2018, the 1st round 2-OT loss to Denver where they banked in an off-balance 3 at the end of regulation.

In 2012, ORU actually avoided a semifinal matchup against NDSU when the Bison were upset by Obi Emegano and WIU. Unfortunately so was ORU in the next round.

I guess I shouldn't worry quite so much about it given that ORU beat both en route to our first tourney title in the Dakotas. Survive and advance!

 

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44 minutes ago, ManiacAlum said:

To answer my own question- In the 12 Summit League tournaments that ORU, NDSU, and SDSU have shared (2009-2012; 2015-2022), ORU has had at least one of them in the same half of the bracket every year but once- 2018, the 1st round 2-OT loss to Denver where they banked in an off-balance 3 at the end of regulation.

In 2012, ORU actually avoided a semifinal matchup against NDSU when the Bison were upset by Obi Emegano and WIU. Unfortunately so was ORU in the next round.

I guess I shouldn't worry quite so much about it given that ORU beat both en route to our first tourney title in the Dakotas. Survive and advance!

 

Playing NDSU in Sioux Falls is not as penal in terms of potential "home crowd" advantage:  Fargo is 250 miles north of the tournament site in sometimes dicey road conditions, and the SDSU, USD and UND fans in attendance are all typically anti-Bison vs. whoever.

Of course, that may change this year:  the main reason those fan bases cheered against NDSU in previous seasons is the same reason they might feel antagonistic toward ORU this year:  those Bison teams were really good, and nobody wanted to play them in the next round(s).  As the No. 1 Seed, ORU will likely incur the same animosity from all attendees in every game, including vs. NDSU.

(Except from Jackrabbits fans - I'm not sure there are ANY circumstances where they might pull for NDSU).

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51 minutes ago, Old Titan said:

Playing NDSU in Sioux Falls is not as penal in terms of potential "home crowd" advantage:  Fargo is 250 miles north of the tournament site in sometimes dicey road conditions, and the SDSU, USD and UND fans in attendance are all typically anti-Bison vs. whoever.

Of course, that may change this year:  the main reason those fan bases cheered against NDSU in previous seasons is the same reason they might feel antagonistic toward ORU this year:  those Bison teams were really good, and nobody wanted to play them in the next round(s).  As the No. 1 Seed, ORU will likely incur the same animosity from all attendees in every game, including vs. NDSU.

(Except from Jackrabbits fans - I'm not sure there are ANY circumstances where they might pull for NDSU).

Those are good points. Maybe I'm still thinking about the first few years up there and how raucous the SDSU and NDSU fans were. ORU still had some recent NCAA tourney shine to make us a team to root against. Even in the 2 years that Oakland won and IUPUI was the next best team, I don't feel like ORU had the neutral crowd on its side and most certainly will be the villain this year.

The XDSU's are still the 2 best traveling fanbases in the league even if their home game attendance numbers have been down. I wonder if the novelty of Division I basketball has worn off?

I would prefer ORU to play 3 games in a mostly empty arena against teams not named NDSU and SDSU, but I am a bit more confident in this ORU team than I would have been with teams under the previous regime. 

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College basketball is so strange, SDSU trailed Denver by 59-41 with 12:30 left to go and they came back and won.  No lead is safe in this league.  Never easy to finish games.

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