ORU at St. Mary's Predictions

[Keenan Henderson]

Kansas City did this most recently with Arkel Lamar in the spring of 2021.  He was a graduate transfer from UMBC (the old team that upset top ranked Virginia in the tournament).  Not sure about all the rules but think a team can do it with a grad transfer but not with say a non grad player.

In the past ORU has also brought in freshmen, such as K.O., at semester.  Yes he was red shirted.  

[darrenj]

5 hours ago, Keenan Henderson said:

The old saying goes: one game does not make a season.  Hopefully, that was a wake up call for the Eagles.  If not, then the Houston game next week will be.  In the long run I think this opening night will help ORU.  St. Mary's is a tough minded defensive team that the Eagles usually struggle against.  

On a side note: Connor is ranked second in the nation in blocks.  

Houston will definitely be a wake up call for sure. That will be the toughest defensive team they play all year. Much more athletic than St. Mary's team.  

[TrueBlue82]

It was my great pleasure to attend the game in Moraga last night.  I've captured some of my observations below.  

Keenan commented that "It seemed like St. Mary's was bigger and stronger at every position on the floor tonight.  Their team was built like a tank."  Spot on - and this was even more evident in person.  In the first half, every bounce appeared to go the way of the Gaels. Some of this was pure luck, but many times a contested ball in the air was “caught” by an ORU player and then tipped away or stripped by his opponent.  The Gaels advantage in physicality was a key element in the outcome of the game. 

I thought the officiating crew was solid, and didn’t impact the outcome, which is EXACTLY what a good crew will do.  When the refs took the court, my buddy (a former ORU SID and long-time Bay Area basketball nut) immediately recognized their faces and said “oh, we have a good crew tonight”.  He was exactly right.  On two occasions, an official made a call against ORU that I thought was incorrect, and in each case the crew got together and overturned the call.  I was impressed that they had the humility to admit their error, and to not be swayed by the vocal home crowd, which soundly booed both reversals.

Should ORU have called timeout in the middle of the first half, to help quell the Gaels momentum?  In hindsight, absolutely...  Would it have made a difference?  Maybe...  It definitely couldn't have made things worse. 

The team showed a lot of grit to fight back in the second half.  The chemistry on the bench makes me think that this team really likes each other - there was no hanging of heads and everyone was consistent in encouraging each other.  There was no doubt in their minds that they would come back in the second half and make it a game - and they did.  I can tell you that the SMC crowd went into the second half expecting a cakewalk, and were stunned to see ORU take control over the first 10-12 minutes.  There was definitely a nervousness amongst the Gael faithful, and ORU gained a lot of their respect by the end of the night.  

Max was simply not himself.  I kept waiting for Max to “take over” the game (like we all know he can) and it never happened.  Much credit for this goes to the Gael defenders.  I was glad to see that the coaches had Max take a breather around the ten minute mark of each half.  I hope that this approach continues through the season.  As much as I appreciate his “Ironman” mentality/desire to play all 40 minutes, I think this strategy will pay off in the long run. 

Sir Isaac was in street clothes, and could have played a significant role in the game if he had been available.  I was also surprised that Clover didn’t see the court, as his size and girth could have been helpful.  I can only assume that the coaching staff didn’t think that he was “ready” for the moment.  If this is the case, the question remains… if not now, then when???

Coaches went with an eight-man rotation.  It will be interesting to see if/how this changes when Herron returns from injury and Williams shakes off the rust of a redshirt year.  

One funny moment that you probably didn’t see on camera… During the first shot of a Gael 1&1 FT attempt, the players were fighting for a potential rebound of a shot that bounced around, but eventually fell through the cylinder.   The 6-11 Gael winced in pain and complained to the ref that he had been hit in the eye, and motioned that Connor had raised his elbows to intentionally strike him.   Connor looked at him sheepishly, as if to say “dude, I didn’t raise my elbow, your eye just happened to be where my elbow IS”. 

I was impressed by the SMC crowd.  I have attended multiple ORU road games over the past 25 years, and heard many derogatory statements and chants, usually invoking some perverse derivative of “oral” to the delight of the student section.  I heard NOTHING negative from the Gael crowd.  In fact, all the cheers were FOR their team rather than against the opponent, with the one exception being the benign “you can’t do that” chant from the students after an ORU turnover.  They are a program that is used to winning (except against Gonzaga), and know how to win the right way.  Respect to SMC.  

From a box score perspective, the outcome of the game (IMHO) was decided by three factors: turnovers (12-5), rebounds (36-31), and two missed front ends of 1&1 FT opportunities.  Giving the Gaels extra possessions, and missing four “free” points from the charity stripe were a dagger to any chance at an upset win.  

I’m generally a glass half-full guy (a counter-balance to my good friend Old Titan), but my biggest concern for this team is our three-point shooting defense.  A freshman guard coming off the bench to score 25 won’t happen every night, but much of this was self-inflicted, as several of his shots were uncontested.  As the Summit League is a three-point emphasis conference, we MUST improve this area of the game by mid-December, or we will create many opportunities for dead-eye shooters to find their groove for a career night against us. 

Once again, like it or not, ORU will live or die from beyond the three-point line this year.  In fact, I think that the emphasis on the 3-pointer will actually INCREASE over previous years, since we have little post-up presence.  I know that some will complain that “we have a 7-5 guy, and we aren’t using him to our advantage”.  I have resigned myself to the thought that Connor came to ORU because he wanted to play HIS style, which is to be a three-point threat on offense and a rim defender on defense.  He is a legitimate three-point shooter, and will score almost all of his points from beyond the arc or on dunks.  He is not (in any sense of the word) a power rebounder, especially on the offensive end.  But, he was definitely a presence on the defensive end, with SIX blocked shots and forcing the Gaels to change their normal trajectory on every interior shot.  This is who he is - and we shouldn’t expect any more (or less) from him. 

Eagleman5, I was thinking of you when Connor went to center court for the opening tip.  Ringing in my head was your pre-season quote of: "If Vanover starts any game in November then TheEagleman is prepared to spend the Holidays drinking nothing but Iced Tea and Cherry Dr. Pepper Zero Sugar...also nary a wager will be placed....and if Vanover becomes a regular staple in the starting lineup then i will continue all of that for the entire season...as Vito Corleone said in The Godfather...I promise on the souls of my grandchildren".  You will need to post your address, so all of us can send you crates of Arizona Iced Tea and Cherry Dr. Pepper to stock your fridge for the upcoming season.  Stay thirsty, my friend.  

All in all, I left the arena feeling disappointed, but generally optimistic for the season ahead.  ORU took a shot to the mouth in the first half, but showed its mettle by counter-punching in the second half.  An eight point loss to a top 50 team on the road is not devastating.  Was it a missed opportunity for a statement win early in the season?  Absolutely.  Do we have the potential for a “special” season?  Definitely.  Do we have significant gaps that need to be filled to be successful?  Without a doubt. 

So excited that the season has FINALLY begun!  

[theeagleman5]

TheEagleman is a man of honor....I am enjoying an Iced Tea and will place no further wagers til 2023....I will have to live off my winnings from last night with ORU +9.5.....personally I do not think Vanover will be starting by the time we start the Summit schedule...but let's see how it plays out....did not count on the Lufile drop out and the Herron injury but won't whine about it....

[tmh8286]

Enjoyed your synopsis of the game, Blue. I found your comments about the crowd interesting - I thought the same thing about their broadcast announcers. I just listened to the first half, but I thought they were the most even-keeled home announcers I've ever listened to - at least in that half!  They even made an effort to point out the strengths of our players - whether or not they were on display last night! I didn't get the sense of much homerism from them at all.

Glad you were able to represent us at the game!

[Keenan Henderson]

Max led ORU in points, rebounds, and assists and he had an off night!  I thought he showed some maturity versus St. Mary's, in that the Gaels had him cornered on the offense end but he went out and rebounded and got his teammates involved.  In the past we have seen Max just continue to fire up 20 plus shots, even when he is struggling.  

[Idig32]

I’m late posting here, and someone may have already posted this, but I thought this game could have easily turned out like the Colorado State game last year. Instead, we came out and fought back into the game. Also, while I can see that the defense still has issues, I think that it is better than last year. They still didn’t play 40 minutes of consistent defense, but there were stretches in the game where Saint Mary’s had some real trouble scoring the ball. If we can keep improving on defense, it will really help the offense get more 2-point opportunities as we’ll be able to get out in transition more. 

[Old Titan]

23 hours ago, Keenan Henderson said:

Max led ORU in points, rebounds, and assists and he had an off night!  I thought he showed some maturity versus St. Mary's, in that the Gaels had him cornered on the offense end but he went out and rebounded and got his teammates involved.  In the past we have seen Max just continue to fire up 20 plus shots, even when he is struggling.  

I like it when Max fires up 20 plus shots, preferably all from behind the arc.

Max is an ELITE 3-point shooter.  So much so that every team ORU plays has this written at the top of their white board during pregame in the locker room:

1.  PICK-UP #3 (ABMAS) AT HALF COURT.

And underneath that is written:

2.  MAKE #3 (ABMAS) DRIVE THE BALL.

Because when he tries to finish at the rim, Max is merely average-to-good for a 5'10", whatever-pound guard.

Bottom Line:  you wanna know what every coach on ORU's schedule thinks to himself each time Max eschews a three-pointer for a drive down the lane?

"Oh, thank God!"

[Dr. Cornelius]

Gaels currently beating America East favorite Vermont 64-46...

[Keenan Henderson]

St. Mary blows out Vermont by 26.  Vermont is a high mid major, as they have won six straight America East Conference Championships.  The Gaels are a tough team and they play Houston later in the season.  That should be an interesting game.

[Ting]

On 11/9/2022 at 9:17 PM, Old Titan said:

I like it when Max fires up 20 plus shots, preferably all from behind the arc.

Max is an ELITE 3-point shooter.  So much so that every team ORU plays has this written at the top of their white board during pregame in the locker room:

1.  PICK-UP #3 (ABMAS) AT HALF COURT.

And underneath that is written:

2.  MAKE #3 (ABMAS) DRIVE THE BALL.

Because when he tries to finish at the rim, Max is merely average-to-good for a 5'10", whatever-pound guard.

Bottom Line:  you wanna know what every coach on ORU's schedule thinks to himself each time Max eschews a three-pointer for a drive down the lane?

"Oh, thank God!"

This is why I’d like to see more action with max at the 2 and McBride getting PG duties. Mcbride is also a good 3 pt shooter, but also a good lane penetrator. If max can roam free, I think we can run more off the ball plays to get him free and open looks. He doesn’t need much time for a good look, but he still needs a little time. This is something I do not need to see against a john brown or the likes, but trying it occasionally would be nice to see if it works…

[ORob2]

10 hours ago, Keenan Henderson said:

St. Mary blows out Vermont by 26.  Vermont is a high mid major, as they have won six straight America East Conference Championships.  The Gaels are a tough team and they play Houston later in the season.  That should be an interesting game.

Some more on that game.  Vs ORU, Mahaney played 26 minutes and scored 25 points.  Vs Vermont, he played 21 minutes, and scored 3 points.  Everyone has their career high game against us it seems🫠

 

Also, KenPom ranks Vermont at 112, *barely* above ORU’s 119 position.  Lastly, in the same gym, Vermont loses by 26, ORU by 8

[Old Titan]

5 hours ago, ORob2 said:

Lastly, in the same gym, Vermont loses by 26, ORU by 8

Give me five more games of comparative scores in college basketball, and I can make a case for Bellarmine making the Final Four.

[GoldenEagleFan]

North Texas goes into St Mary’s and loses 63-33. Woof!