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ORU at St. Mary's Predictions


theeagleman5

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TheEagleman is still studying the numbers and analytics....and waiting for a Vegas Line.....but interested to hear what others think about this game now just 72 hours away.....other than Houston this is surely our most challenging contest of the year and one that could put ORU in the national spotlight if we were to be victorious.....Coach Mills has been preparing the Good Guys physically and mentally for St. Mary's style for the past couple months now.....a very difficult gym in which to play and the home team rarely loses there except to Gonzaga......so let's start the discussion.....:tb-white:

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It is a tough call: St. Mary's is excellent at home (they even beat #1 ranked Gonzaga last year)but has some new faces, while ORU has experience but the defense is always a question.  St. Mary's has had a lot of time to prepare for ORU and their style of play and size usually gives the Eagles problems.  The first half may be about even but the Gaels pull away in the second half by around 10, say 75-65.

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3 hours ago, theeagleman5 said:

TheEagleman is still studying the numbers and analytics....and waiting for a Vegas Line.....but interested to hear what others think about this game now just 72 hours away.....other than Houston this is surely our most challenging contest of the year and one that could put ORU in the national spotlight if we were to be victorious.....Coach Mills has been preparing the Good Guys physically and mentally for St. Mary's style for the past couple months now.....a very difficult gym in which to play and the home team rarely loses there except to Gonzaga......so let's start the discussion.....:tb-white:

Houston will be one heck of a challenge as they are loaded this year. Very athletic and probably the most physical team that ORU will face this year. Their guards really pressure and very good on the defensive side. Tall order but good experience as well. 

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ESPN has St. Mary's as a 10.5 point favorite for Monday night's game.  Sounds about right.

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With the size of St Mary’s and the home court advantage my prediction is our best chance of winning is great shooting and at the very least solid defense. Mills did say at the Courtside Countdown that this team hustles and aggressively goes  for loose balls. Anything short of this will be a L for us

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The Gaels will also benefit from the six exhibition games they played in Australia in August.  This will give them a huge edge in all of their early-season games, while other teams are still working on team chemistry.  83-74 SMC sounds about right, but we also know that if our shooters are hot, it could come down to the final seconds.  And, if our guys are cold from three, no margin of defeat will be too high.

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Saint Mary’s lost several players from last year’s team, including the top two scorers. They added new players, mostly freshmen, including a 6’8” player from Harvard. They play tough, physical defense and normally don’t lose at home. The games they played in Australia over the summer helped them get used to each other and will certainly give them an advantage over opponents early in the season. 

ORU returns a lot of players with several intriguing additions. The loss of Lufile and his imposing presence in the middle, along with his 7.0 rebounds per game, will be hard to replace. The Golden Eagles must exert more effort on the defensive side of the court and eliminate easy buckets. We have the offensive firepower, but can we stop/slow down opposing teams?

Tough first game matchup against a quality opponent. We need to shoot lights out and make them miss.

 

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ORU's website has tomorrow's game with a watch link to the West Coast Channel page.  They kept listing it as watchable on that network even though the West Coast Channel does not list the game and so does St. Mary's website.  Seems odd that both teams have it posted.  Guess we will see at game time if this match up is viewable.

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A win at Saint Mary’s would easily rank as the biggest road win in the Paul Mills era. 

Come to think of it, what IS the biggest road win in the Paul Mills era?

At Arkansas-Little Rock his first season?

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St. Marys returns 4 starters from a team that was ranked top ten in defense last season and held Gonzaga's high powered offense to 57 in a win over the Bulldogs.

If the Gaels can hold Gonzaga to 57 ORU absolutely has to be defending and rebounding to keep it close. I think we may see a repeat of Colorado St. last year where ORU just wasn't ready to match the other team's effort and defense just never showed up.

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Most of you who follow TheEagleman know that I am a student of history and the past can usually be used to help predict the future.....ORU has never done well in road openers and last year was pretty much an embarrassment at Colorado State.....hopefully our coaching staff and returning players have learned a lesson from that butt whipping and have prepared much better for this 2022-23 season opener at St. Mary's because this is an even tougher match up.....I am sorry to see that so many (about 95%) of my fellow board members see this as a resounding defeat for the Good Guys...seems like most of you have little hope for an ORU victory or even a reasonably close game....but not so fast, my friends!....even though history is against our guys and St. Mary has a stellar home record....TheEagleman believes....In Mills We Trust and I think he has been preparing the Golden Eagles for a massive effort on Monday Night....this is a game where a monster performance is needed from our star player Max Abmas and we shall see if he is up to the task.....the supporting cast especially McBride, Weaver and Thompson need to bring their A game and ORU has to play solid defense....we need to coax the Gaels into an uptempo game and can't afford to fall far behind early...otherwise a repeat of Colorado State might be inevitable.....But I have to agree with Bogus that a closer game is expected and the Good Guys will battle to the end....can we win?  sure.....but I have to agree that beating a powerful Top 25 squad like St. Marys on their home floor on opening night is not likely.....but we can and will compete until the final minute.....I would take the visitors and the 10 points and will call the final score..... St. Mary's 79 ORU 75......But let's GO BLUE!!!!   :tb-blue:

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ORU's website says the Eagles beat St. Mary's in 1972 by 110-96.  That was a surprise that the teams had played each other before.  Do any of you history buffs (notice that I did not say old timers) remember that one?

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If ORU is going to defy history this year’s team could be the one to do it. Everyone of our starters are 21years or older with a ton of experience. It sounds like this is a tough minded team that will not be easily intimidated. I have sensed for a while a paradigm shift in ORU basketball. Our fan base like the Eagleman stated so eloquently has a mostly negative expectation in road  openers and tough road games. I believe this is going to change, hopefully  tomorrow night. Coach Mills and staff are doing a good job recruiting guys that are talented and expect to win at a high level. Unfortunately paradigm shifts do not take place over night but they can and do take place quite often.  Every time I am around Coach Mills he speaks and expects to win. I am certain most of us on the message board do not subscribe to the prosperity name and claim it message but let’s not forget that words are powerful, they create life and death. Just like the coaches and players have to do their part let us fans do our part and speak victory over  our team. I have come to know success as 2 steps forward and 1 step back. When this happens we tend to make steady sustained progress. This is where I see ORU at! Go Eagles tomorrow night!

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1 hour ago, Keenan Henderson said:

ORU's website says the Eagles beat St. Mary's in 1972 by 110-96.  That was a surprise that the teams had played each other before.  Do any of you history buffs (notice that I did not say old timers) remember that one?

That would have been one of the first games played in the just-opened Mabee Center.

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