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BracketBusters: The Final Showdown


Old Titan

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ORUBlue82, as he's prone to do, touched on an interesting theme in the Sam Houston State thread, worthy of it's own topic.  Here's what he said:

 

".....we have only three games until the Bracketbuster selection.  Our current RPI ranks in the top ten of the 61 Home teams, increasing the prospect of a good match-up and a potential TV game for the Mabee Center.  A loss today would definitely damage those hopes.

 

As of now, a list of likely opponents would be:

Evansville

Weber State

Iona*

Denver

Ohio*

South Dakota State*

 

Lots of potential story lines there.  Three of those teams (*) made it to the Dance last season, with Ohio storming into the Sweet Sixteen and Iona taking one of the final at-large berths (leaving ORU on the outside looking in).  And, I never considered that we might have a rematch with a former Summit nemesis in the final Bracketbuster.  All in all, it could be interesting...."

 

Always fun to predict the BracketBuster opponent; there used to be a website that projected the match-ups.  Some interesting angles for this year include ORU getting yet another home game (due to switching conferences), and with ESPN announcing this as the last year of the event, it begs the question:  will some of the home teams in this year's version fail to honor the return game in two seasons?

 

It would be a hoot if they send South Dakota State down here this year to play ORU, only to see Scott Sutton and MC politely decline the return trip to Brookings in 2014...

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thanks OT for making this it's own thread.

 

another school might be Detroit...a throw back battle of Titans would be interesting.

 

on the list above, Denver seems the most likely.

 

 

Here are Forecasts of what the RPI/Records will be on Monday, January 28, 2013 for all 122 BracketBuster teams.
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Our current RPI on CBSSports.com is 90.....not likely to improve much with Lamar and McNeese St. coming up next weekend......in fact, it will likely go down....wouldn't mind seeing ORU vs. Evansville....Denver, Weber St. or E. Kentucky also very possible...... :nerd:

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Actually I'm pretty amazed that we're sub-100 this season. I wonder where we would be if we'd won a couple more of those close games.

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Should have beaten OU and TU for sure....and could have taken Belmont which is one of the top mid majors in the RPI in the top 25.....SFA is around 65-70....so we could be higher than that because our SOS is 86 and theirs is 315....If ORU had won those 3 games and was 13-5.....we could be around 50 RPI for sure....but....could woulda shoulda.....we are what our record says we are..... :nerd:

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If anyone with a sub-100 RPI gets sent to play ORU, they will be howling that the match-up is an "everything-to-lose-nothing-to-gain" scenario, and they would be right.

 

Time for me to haul out my annual rant on why BracketBusters is actually "BracketEliminators" for many bubble-worthy teams (excerpt from last February's BracketBuster thread):

 

---

The middle of this previous thread contains a debate regarding the merits - and ultimately, the intent - of BracketBusters.

This weekend, I came upon an article by Andy Glockner of SI.com (written at the time the selections came out) that perfectly sums up what I was struggling to communicate. Here's the first paragraph:

"My biggest annual complaint with BracketBusters is that the games between the best teams are set for TV purposes and/or geography rather than what most helps the teams in their quest for NCAA tournament bids. Generally speaking, the games become net losses for the mid-majors, with the losing team often being hurt (or completely KO'd) more than the winning team gains in profile cred."

He goes on to label the event "BracketEliminators", which refers to a Tweet of his that Mike Brown quoted in today's Tulsa World: "In the last three years, no team that has lost a BracketBuster game has been awarded an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament".

Which is preposterous on its face: suppose suddenly-streaking Wichita State, a veritable lock for an at-large bid right now, stumbles at dangerous-but-not-highly-regarded Davidson in their BracketBuster game, and then loses to nationally-ranked Creighton in the Missouri Valley tournament final. Will that loss to Davidson be used as an excuse to keep the Shockers out of the NCAA tournament?

If that's the case, mid-majors should boycott the entire BracketBuster process from now on. It just does more bad than good for teams like ORU that have already earned a spot on the bubble.


BracketBusters Cause Trouble For Mid-Majors (Andy Glockner, SI.com)
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I made an effort to predict the top 15 games, considering conference affiliation, RPI, TV ratings, location, and no previous meetings this season.  We'll see if any of these match up tomorrow...if 50% are correct, I'd be shocked.  I think we stand a very good chance at landing an ESPN2 or ESPNU game.

 

Creighton (MVC) at St. Mary's (WCC)

NDSU (Summ) at Wichita State (MVC)

SFA (Slnd) at Belmont (OVC)

E Kentucky (OVC) at Akron (MAC)

SDSU (Sum) at Indiana St (MVC)

Detroit (Horz) at Northern Iowa (MVC)

Evansville (MVC) at Valpo (Horz)

Loyola MD (MAAC) at Tenn St (OVC)

Ohio (MAC) at Murray State (OVC)

Canisius (MAAC) at Western Michigan (MAC)

Iona (MAAC) at ORU (Slnd)

Denver (WAC) at Long Beach (BW)

Northwestern St (Slnd) at Wright State (Horz)

Utah State (WAC) at Pacific (BW)

Illinois St (MVC) at Illinois-Chicago (Horz)

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here is what rpiforecast has as of this afternoon

 

HOME TEAMS

14....Belmont---------OVC        
17....Wichita St.-----MVC        
51....Indiana St.-----MVC        
60....St. Mary's------WCC        
69....Akron-----------MAC        
85....Valparaiso------Horz        
93....Western Mich----MAC        
96....Murray St.------OVC        
98....Tennessee St.---OVC        
99....Oral Roberts----Slnd        
100...Northern Iowa---MVC        
102...Ill Chicago-----Horz        
104...Long Beach St.--BW        
114...Davidson--------SC        
132...Vermont---------AE

 

AWAY TEAMS
29....Creighton-------MVC        
58....N Dakota St.----Sum        
59....S Dakota St.----Sum        
76....East Kentucky---OVC        
77....SFA-------------Slnd        
86....Detroit---------Horz        
97....Ohio------------MAC        
101...Northwstern St.-Slnd        
103...Loyola MD-------MAAC        
106...Iona------------MAAC        
110...Evansville------MVC        
113...Montana---------BSky        
111...Pacific---------BW        
124...Canisius--------MAAC        
121...Denver----------WAC

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TheEagleman would love that matchup with Iona....saw them up close and personal last Sunday in a tough 5 pt loss at Rider.....the Gaels are similar to ORU in height and love to push to ball up the court averaging over 80 per game.....but Rider slowed them down and pulled the game out late....Iona has a little guard who can score....also a center who averages 14 and 10.....similar to DBH at 6-8.....the Gaels rebounded from the loss last week to score impressive wins over St. Peter's and Loyola MD. this weekend.....they are now 14-7 and would be a tough match up for ORU...... :nerd:

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My gut feeling, for no particular reason (in order of gut-feely-ness):

 

1.  Denver

2.  Evansville

3.  Ohio

4.  Montana

5.  South Dakota State

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I know that we've often been given a western opponent (Montana, Pacific, Utah State) in previous years of Bracketbuster match-up, which makes Denver stand out for me, too.  But, there are three MAAC schools in the lower third of the road  list, and no Eastern schools on the home list, which directed me to the Iona pick.  It could be a "made-for-TV" event for ESPN2 of the theoretical "last team in" and "first team out" of the 2012 NCAA tourney.

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There seems to be some confusion on Twitter tonight about whether or not ESPN has pushed the announcement day of the 13 TV games from this Monday, January 28th (as announced on their website in November) to NEXT Monday, February 4th.

 

I will say this:  when I tried to program my Cox DVR to record the announcement show on ESPNU, it does, in fact, show the date and time as 5:30 p.m. next Monday, February 4th.....

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For personal reasons I would love to see Ohio come to the Mabee.  All my undergrad work was done there.  It would be an interesting matchup.  We have two (2) common opponents being OU and Memphis.  Ohio played OU in Norman and lost 74-63 the day after the Bobcat football team took UL Monroe to the woodshed in the Indy Bowl.  They also lost earlier in December at Memphis 84-58.  Their other loses were as follows:  @Robert Morris University 84-76 in November, @UMass 85-76 in early December, and to Winthrop 50-49 two days before Winthrop went to Columbus and almost knocked-off Ohio State.  Some of their OOC wins were as follows:  Oakland 78-61, Richmond 73-48, St. Bonaventure 69-64 and Marshall 94-56.  They are also currently 7-0 in the MAC, face Eastern Michigan in Athens Wednesday night and then go to the JAR Arena at Akron for a nationally televised game (ESPNU) this Saturday.  They made it to the Sweet 16 last spring knocking off Michigan and USF before losing to UNC by a basket.  That team basically is still intact and some of their loses this year can be attributed to the fact that Jim Groce left for Illinois and they brought in Jim Christian from TCU to head the program.  It took a while for them to finally start to jell under his system.  However, all that being said I would still take ORU to win but it would be a good game.  DJ Cooper is one of the top assist leaders in the nation right now.  I do not believe the two schools have ever played each other in any sport.  I may be wrong.

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There seems to be some confusion on Twitter tonight about whether or not ESPN has pushed the announcement day of the 13 TV games from this Monday, January 28th (as announced on their website in November) to NEXT Monday, February 4th.

 

I will say this:  when I tried to program my Cox DVR to record the announcement show on ESPNU, it does, in fact, show the date and time as 5:30 p.m. next Monday, February 4th.....

just guessing that ESPN must not have liked the potential matchups and are hoping another week might create better games for TV

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I say bring on the Jackrabbits.

 

Anyone else notice the Summit standings? Western Illinois in first place. Oakland struggling in a watered down conference. And, IUPUI is HORRIBLE, last place at 1-9 or similar.

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By all indications, the announcement date for the 13 TV games has indeed been pushed to Monday, February 4th, at 5:30 p.m Central time.

 

No official word from ESPN as to why, but ORUalum probably hit the nail on the head.

 

If it seems like ESPN is treating BracketBusters like a red-headed stepchild this last go-around, it's only because they are. :doh:

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If that is the case, look for ESPN to make the brackets based on the lowest travel costs to save money.

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TheEagleman watched the last 10 minutes of Western Illinois at Oakland on Saturday prior to the ORU broadcast.....don't get how WIU is winning...they looked very mediocre....Oakland ended up pulling away at the end after being tied with just 5 minutes left....hard to believe that either SDSU or NDSU won't win the tournament.....I wouldn't mind seeing ORU play the Jacks again.....of course, the downside is that all those goofballs from the frozen tundra will come back to the board for a week or so...... :puke:

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