Guest Blevins Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 I would expect a couple defections (nobody that got many minutes this year) and a couple recruiting surprises, with at least one JUCO. Make no mistake however that next year will be a rebuilding year, ORU does not have the budget to buy home wins like TU had this year. I would say ORU should hope to be above .500 and compete for the mid-con but getting 20 wins and being the prohibitive favorite is probably a couple years and a couple great recruits away. ORU's run is over, the key now is to keep momentum and not let things slip so that a new run is possible in the next couple years. ash =o) Somebody let me know when TU's run begins! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 I would expect a couple defections (nobody that got many minutes this year) and a couple recruiting surprises, with at least one JUCO. Make no mistake however that next year will be a rebuilding year, ORU does not have the budget to buy home wins like TU had this year. I would say ORU should hope to be above .500 and compete for the mid-con but getting 20 wins and being the prohibitive favorite is probably a couple years and a couple great recruits away. ORU's run is over, the key now is to keep momentum and not let things slip so that a new run is possible in the next couple years. ash =o) This is wishful thinking, pure and simple. It may end up being TRUE, but still - it smacks of similar "Oh, yeah - I'm an ORU fan, BUT..." posts that we see from suspect sources every spring. Here are the facts: ORU's combination of coaching experience, returning talent, and incoming prospects will make the Golden Eagles a contender once again in the Mid-Con. ORU has three starters returning, three key reserves who saw significant action last year, and two talented players with D-1 experience who have been on campus for over a year that should figure IMMEDIATELY into the mix (think Adam Liberty, or Rod Earls at TU). Conversely, three Mid-Con schools will have new coaches (Southern Utah, Nothr Dakota State & UMKC), and three schools (SDSU, NDSU and IPFW) are new to the vagaries of Mid-Con venues, travel, officials, etc. Plus, as Terry's excellent research indicates, several league schools have even more to replace than ORU does. With the new league lineup, ORU will now play 18 conference games. Let's say ORU goes 8-1 in home games, and 4-5 on the road. That's 12-6 right there, probably good enough for second or third place in the league. Throw in two non D-1 home games, tallying up to 14 wins. That means ORU needs 6 more wins to get 20 for the year, which could come from either the non-conference schedule or the Mid-Con tournament. So, something in the neighborhood of 20 wins is feasible. And so is winning the Mid-Con tournament at the always-freindly UMAC in March, when all the new parts of this team should be meshing. Which means another NCAA berth, most likely as a #16 or #15 seed due to the conference RPI being down and depending on how many non-conference games we win. So, let's see: around 20 wins, upper echelon of the Mid-Con, a Mid-Con tournament championship at the UMAC, and a third-straight NCAA tournament berth. Now, what exactly is this so-called "run" - and where in this scenario is it "over"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prezalum 05/06 Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 Good post OT, and to be honest, it's probably a little bit of a pessimistic post in some respects... WE WILL BE FINE NEXT YEAR!!! Lot's of talent left, solid coaching, and of course the maniacs We may not be knocking off Kansas next year, but I'd say we have a better chance of winning 20 than we do of not, and being anything below 3rd in the conference regular season would be a serious letdown. Here's to 3 straight years of dancing!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashVID Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 I am not a suspect source, ORU is my second favorite team in the country and I have been going to games for almost 30 years. Go look at my rivals bracket, I picked ORU to go to the sweet 16. I said the same thing to my fellow TU fans when we lost those seniors a couple years back and was treated rudely. The schedule will soften up so ORU still has a chance to win 17 games but look at the last couple years when it took half a season to adjust to losing LSG and Bluitt/Owens. ORU just lost a tandem that ranks in the top 10 in NCAA HISTORY, I actually think they are 7th. It is an insult to Tutt and Green to say or think ORU wont miss them painfully. ORU will be down, that is just reality. I dont expect the die-hards to accept that reality, but be patient, it is going to take a while to bounce back especially given the recruiting situation this last year when ORU unfortunately and somewhat unexpectedly missed out on those guys who most thought would qualify. I say above .500 next year is a success for ORU. ash =o) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Minyard Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 Somebody let me know when TU's run begins! Seriously... we only have to hear from these guys because we didn't get it done at their place this year. What a terrible loss, but still a very good season. I sure hope our guys circle the TU game on the calendar this off season. Four out of five wouldn't be so bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Rob Marshall Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 This is wishful thinking, pure and simple. It may end up being TRUE, but still - it smacks of similar "Oh, yeah - I'm an ORU fan, BUT..." posts that we see from suspect sources every spring. Here are the facts: ORU's combination of coaching experience, returning talent, and incoming prospects will make the Golden Eagles a contender once again in the Mid-Con. ORU has three starters returning, three key reserves who saw significant action last year, and two talented players with D-1 experience who have been on campus for over a year that should figure IMMEDIATELY into the mix (think Adam Liberty, or Rod Earls at TU). Conversely, three Mid-Con schools will have new coaches (Southern Utah, Nothr Dakota State & UMKC), and three schools (SDSU, NDSU and IPFW) are new to the vagaries of Mid-Con venues, travel, officials, etc. Plus, as Terry's excellent research indicates, several league schools have even more to replace than ORU does. With the new league lineup, ORU will now play 18 conference games. Let's say ORU goes 8-1 in home games, and 4-5 on the road. That's 12-6 right there, probably good enough for second or third place in the league. Throw in two non D-1 home games, tallying up to 14 wins. That means ORU needs 6 more wins to get 20 for the year, which could come from either the non-conference schedule or the Mid-Con tournament. So, something in the neighborhood of 20 wins is feasible. And so is winning the Mid-Con tournament at the always-freindly UMAC in March, when all the new parts of this team should be meshing. Which means another NCAA berth, most likely as a #16 or #15 seed due to the conference RPI being down and depending on how many non-conference games we win. So, let's see: around 20 wins, upper echelon of the Mid-Con, a Mid-Con tournament championship at the UMAC, and a third-straight NCAA tournament berth. Now, what exactly is this so-called "run" - and where in this scenario is it "over"? Actually, HERE is THE only fact that matters ... ORU is still in the MID CON (should be good for 13 regular season wins) and the conference tournament will once again be played right here at home ... in Tulsa!!! IF ORU only wins four (4) non-conference games, they still win twenty (20) and punch their dance ticket once again next March! Three (3) straight NCAA tournament appearances!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texasgrip Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Actually, HERE is THE only fact that matters ... ORU is still in the MID CON (should be good for 13 regular season wins) and the conference tournament will once again be played right here at home ... in Tulsa!!! IF ORU only wins four (4) non-conference games, they still win twenty (20) and punch their dance ticket once again next March! Three (3) straight NCAA tournament appearances!!! Rob, is that you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 I am not a suspect source, ORU is my second favorite team in the country and I have been going to games for almost 30 years. Go look at my rivals bracket, I picked ORU to go to the sweet 16. I said the same thing to my fellow TU fans when we lost those seniors a couple years back and was treated rudely. The schedule will soften up so ORU still has a chance to win 17 games but look at the last couple years when it took half a season to adjust to losing LSG and Bluitt/Owens. ORU just lost a tandem that ranks in the top 10 in NCAA HISTORY, I actually think they are 7th. It is an insult to Tutt and Green to say or think ORU wont miss them painfully. ORU will be down, that is just reality. I dont expect the die-hards to accept that reality, but be patient, it is going to take a while to bounce back especially given the recruiting situation this last year when ORU unfortunately and somewhat unexpectedly missed out on those guys who most thought would qualify. I say above .500 next year is a success for ORU. ash =o) Dude, you are the EPITOME of a suspect source! Look, congrats on attending the occasional ORU game every now and then, just to kick the tires for comparison's sake. I do the same with TU. And it's really impressive that you keep tabs on the team - just like a lot of us do with TU, OU, OSU and Arkansas. But that hardly makes you a FAN - it merely makes you a better-informed CRITIC. Your posts over the years are pretty obvious in that regard. And the fact you picked ORU in your bracket makes you a fan? It just shows you don;t know much basketball - NEVER take a #14 over a #3 when the underdog traveled TWO TIME ZONES to play the game! Now, where did I say we wouldn't miss Caleb and Ken? Please, show me the quote - I can't seem to find it. And did I not say this team might struggle early, and finish second or third in conference? Did I not say we might not jell until conference tournament time? I never said next year would be easy. I simply am taking issue with your "ORU's run is over, they're gonna miss Caleb like we missed KJ, it will take them years to rebuild, yada, yada, yada" crap that you been spewing for about a YEAR now. Here - AGAIN - is what I said: with lots of experience and talent back, both on the floor AND on the sidelines, in a weakened Mid-Con, with more games against possibly weaker conference teams, and having the Mid-Con tournament at the UMAC, where ORU's men have never failed to make the finals, that ORU has a better-than-decent chance to have the same sort of TEAM success this next year as the last two seasons. That's it. No "dissing" Ken and Caleb. No rose-colored glasses, or even navy-and-vegas-gold ones. Just good ol' fashioned conjecture, based on the FACTS. And for the record: your problem a few years back wasn't simply that you graduated a couple of good players. Your problem was John Phillips. TU's fall-off needn't have been a total face-plant - and neither does ours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashVID Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 ORU needs to draw more fans, not insult professed ones. I have taken a lot of heat over the years on the TU board, I have picked the winner of the ORU/TU game for the last 4 years, 3 of those being ORU. Just because you dont welcome objectivity does not make me less of a fan. Now that I have a family I make less games (only made about 5 this year) but I listen on the radio or follow on the internet. There was a lot of "we will miss Ken and Caleb...but..." talk in this thread, it was not pointed at you personally but my comment was meant to emphasize, there is no "but" ORU loses their top 2 options and unquestionable leaders. I personally hope ORU loses the TU game and wins every other game, I dont like it when they lose and I most certainly dont delight in it. I never said ORU will fall as far as TU did, I said their run is over. I consider "run" meaning that they are the dominant team in the mid-con and everyone else is playing for second. If ORU finishes 3rd in the 30th ranked conference, in my eyes, that would mean the run is over. As Rob pointed out, the tourny is still here which gives ORU a great chance to still sneak in. If for no other reason than conf affiliation, ORU should be able to bounce back quicker than TU. Rob, if ORU wins 20 games next year I will buy you dinner. At that dinner we can talk about which job Scott Sutton is going to take and how good Hankins will be as new head coach =o) ash =o) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Just because you don't welcome objectivity does not make me less of a fan. objective |?b?jektiv| adjective 1 (of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts. Contrasted with subjective. DERIVATIVES objectivity |??bjek?tivit?| noun impartiality, absence/lack of bias, absence/lack of prejudice, fairness, fair-mindedness, neutrality, evenhandedness, justice, open-mindedness, disinterest, detachment, dispassion, neutrality. Now, would someone please explain to me how, in MARCH, flatly saying that "ORU's run is over" is an objective statement? Who knows if it's over - yet? Opine all you like; but "objective" it ain't! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTerry Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 It's hard to get a read on what next year will be like. Losing two dominant (understatement) players like Green and Tutt will obviously impact the team. We have been used to relying on those two for the last four years.... it will be difficult to adjust to them not being there. We will have to rely on our defense - and find out what player combinations work to score points. The good thing is that we have some tools to work with. I expect that we might struggle a bit early as we work to develop our line up. It appears that Vealy & Lewis will come in to replace Green and Ehambe & Lewis will take Tutt's place. Those are different players with different skills sets. The team will have to get used to new dynamics. I think we have the players to be reasonably successful next year. As my analysis of leaving players shows, most of the other Mid-Con schools are also losing a portion of their scoring and rebounding. We are not the only school trying to rebuild/recover from lineup changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Rob Marshall Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Rob, is that you? Of course it's me. It's an honest and fair balanced point detailing very reasonable expectations for next season. That is my point on why ORU should be grateful for their membership in the Mid Con, because it presents the Golden Eagles with arguably one of the easiest paths to the NCAA tournament every season, especially when the conference tournament will be played a 4th straight season "at home" in Tulsa! If ORU doesn't win at least four (4) non-conference games, thirteen (13) plus regular season Mid Con match-ups and then three (3) more in the conference tournament (i.e., 20 wins and another automatic NCAA tournament bid), then ORU will NOT have met my expectations in 2007-08. I will be disappointed, and you should be too. See what happens when your program experiences a little success, the fans start having "unrealistic expecations." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Rob Marshall Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 ORU needs to draw more fans, not insult professed ones. I have taken a lot of heat over the years on the TU board, I have picked the winner of the ORU/TU game for the last 4 years, 3 of those being ORU. Just because you dont welcome objectivity does not make me less of a fan. Now that I have a family I make less games (only made about 5 this year) but I listen on the radio or follow on the internet. There was a lot of "we will miss Ken and Caleb...but..." talk in this thread, it was not pointed at you personally but my comment was meant to emphasize, there is no "but" ORU loses their top 2 options and unquestionable leaders. I personally hope ORU loses the TU game and wins every other game, I dont like it when they lose and I most certainly dont delight in it. I never said ORU will fall as far as TU did, I said their run is over. I consider "run" meaning that they are the dominant team in the mid-con and everyone else is playing for second. If ORU finishes 3rd in the 30th ranked conference, in my eyes, that would mean the run is over. As Rob pointed out, the tourny is still here which gives ORU a great chance to still sneak in. If for no other reason than conf affiliation, ORU should be able to bounce back quicker than TU. Rob, if ORU wins 20 games next year I will buy you dinner. At that dinner we can talk about which job Scott Sutton is going to take and how good Hankins will be as new head coach =o) ash =o) ash, as has become my expectation for you, once again you delivered several solid points. And, you're on for the dinner bet. I'll even reciprocate IF ORU does NOT win 20 games next season. Their pre-conference schedule will be pretty weak so four (4) plus wins SHOULD BE a lock. The Mid Con is STILL the Mid Con, and with the schedule expanding to eighteen (18) regular season league games, winning thirteen (13) plus is reasonable too. Throw in three (3) wins at the Mid Con tournament, and you've got a smooth twenty (20) wins bro. Bottom line, there is no question, ORU will have their hands full replacing Green and Tutt, but the Golden Eagles don't play in the Big 12, the Valley or even C-USA for that matter, so it will be more easily done at ORU than a school in one of the before mentioned leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Would someone please enlighten me on this "weak" non-conference schedule we supposedly have in place already? As of last week, I was told the only definite games so far are hosting TU, visiting Utah State (with senior Jaycee Carroll), and an exempt 3-game holiday tournament that will include the usual assortment of mid-majors and BCS schools. Where's the weak part? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Minyard Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 ORU needs to draw more fans, not insult professed ones. I have taken a lot of heat over the years on the TU board, I have picked the winner of the ORU/TU game for the last 4 years, 3 of those being ORU. Just because you dont welcome objectivity does not make me less of a fan. Now that I have a family I make less games (only made about 5 this year) but I listen on the radio or follow on the internet. There was a lot of "we will miss Ken and Caleb...but..." talk in this thread, it was not pointed at you personally but my comment was meant to emphasize, there is no "but" ORU loses their top 2 options and unquestionable leaders. I personally hope ORU loses the TU game and wins every other game, I dont like it when they lose and I most certainly dont delight in it. I never said ORU will fall as far as TU did, I said their run is over. I consider "run" meaning that they are the dominant team in the mid-con and everyone else is playing for second. If ORU finishes 3rd in the 30th ranked conference, in my eyes, that would mean the run is over. As Rob pointed out, the tourny is still here which gives ORU a great chance to still sneak in. If for no other reason than conf affiliation, ORU should be able to bounce back quicker than TU. Rob, if ORU wins 20 games next year I will buy you dinner. At that dinner we can talk about which job Scott Sutton is going to take and how good Hankins will be as new head coach =o) ash =o) Ash, I've always enjoyed your posts. I give you a lot more credit as an educated basketball fan than most the people on this board. First thing though, when has the Mid-Con been ranked 30th? CUSA was terrible this year. Better than the Mid-Con, but still terrible. Two years ago ORU started out slow because they played seven straight road games in December. It was a bad schedule, and it didn't help that the team was struggling during that span. You can look at the ORU roster and see quality talent. Those players just haven't been ask to have much of a role with Ken and Caleb playing 35 minutes each night. I think ORU will struggle in the first 10 games, but will come around when it matters. I'm really looking forward to seeing Ehambe get more shot attempts. I'm also looking forward to seeing Vealy get some consistent minutes. You can't replace Ken or Caleb, but you hope that multiple players will step up to the challenge to fill those roles. Most of us wondered if ORU could get any better without Tim and Rocky. The good thing this time around is that it appears we will have the same coaching staff to get us back on our feet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Minyard Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Would someone please enlighten me on this "weak" non-conference schedule we supposedly have in place already? As of last week, I was told the only definite games so far are hosting TU, visiting Utah State (with senior Jaycee Carroll), and an exempt 3-game holiday tournament that will include the usual assortment of mid-majors and BCS schools. Where's the weak part? Well you can probably count on two non-D1 games at home. The season opener will be a non-D1 probably. I know we have to play Louisiana-Lafayette again. Not sure, but I'd imagine we have to return a game to Lamar. I doubt that was just a one game deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 You can't replace Ken or Caleb, but you hope that multiple players will step up to the challenge to fill those roles. Most of us wondered if ORU could get any better without Tim and Rocky. March, 2003 - "We sure are going to miss Reggie Borges. He had really come into his own as a scorer and rebounder. Hopefully, those incoming freshmen Tutt and Green can contribute." March, 2005 - "We sure are going to miss Luke Spencer-Gardner's leadership and toughness. Hope Jonathan can stay healthy running the point all year". March, 2006 - "How are we going to win without Larry Owens? He did so many things well. The roster sure does look thin after losing six seniors and those three freshmen recruits not panning out." March, 2007 - "How will we ever replace Ken and Caleb? They were the heart and soul of this team for four years. Who's going to step up in their place?" Right now, all we can see is what we've lost. By end of the summer, we'll have a better idea of what we have. Could be worse than this year... Might be better... Definitely will be different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FargoBison Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Here is a schedule showing the conference teams and the players each one loses to graduation - and the corresponding loss of points & rebounding on a per game basis, as well as minutes played. I used conference numbers to make the numbers consistent. ORU Pts Reb Min Green 20.4 9.5 34.2 Tutt 14.9 3.4 35.7 Total 35.3 12.9 Team Total 75.9 36.6 46.5% 35.2% IUPUI Pts Reb Min Montgomery 13.6 5.1 34.9 Barlow 11.4 4.5 38.2 Smith 9.6 5.9 30.5 Burks 2.5 1.1 8.6 Total 37.1 16.6 Team Total 67.9 32.2 54.6% 51.6% UMKC Pts Reb Min Ayuba 13.4 5.0 28.5 Day 14.7 4.5 37.7 Crawford 2.5 3.0 11.7 Spears 0.0 0.0 3.0 Total 30.6 12.5 Team Total 71.6 32.7 42.7% 38.2% Centenary Pts Reb Min Starr 17.1 6.4 33.7 Logan 9.0 5.2 23.0 Total 26.1 11.6 Team Total 64.4 31.5 40.5% 36.8% SUU Pts Reb Min Barnes 11.9 3.4 38.0 Allen 9.9 3.6 34.1 Abrahao 1.3 0.9 5.6 Total 23.1 7.9 Team Total 65.2 31.4 35.4% 25.2% WIU Pts Reb Min Hunter 9.5 2.8 30.0 Okeson 7.2 1.3 28.8 Total 16.7 4.1 Team Total 57.3 27.7 29.1% 14.8% Oakland Pts Reb Min Billings 5.2 2.8 15.6 Severovas 16.0 6.4 36.6 Total 21.2 9.2 Team Total 73.9 34.8 28.7% 26.4% Hopes is listed as a senior on some rosters but a junior on others. If he leaves, he would take 12.0 ppg and 4.9 rpg - with 27.4 mpg NDSU Pts Reb Min Smith 17 9.1 31.7 Team Total 76.5 37 22.3% 24.6% Andre Smith(PF) is the only player NDSU will lose off last years team. He was the Indy player of the year and was part of NDSU's fab 4 that averaged over 15 pts per game. NDSU's will definately miss Smith, he was an outstanding rebounder and defensive player. NDSU does have a freshman that looks like he will be talented enough to replace the offense NDSU lost but it is going to be tough to replace what Andre did defensively and on the boards. NDSU may also lose the often injured Tom Lunde who has had a lot of concussion problems if he isn't cleared by a docter. Of course NDSU also loses their coach but no players will transfer, not even our one incoming recruit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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