Old Titan Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 A place for all bracketology, watch party announcement, and related news leading up to Selection Sunday. What's the general consensus on ORU's seed: a 15? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texasgrip Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/ They currently have ORU as a 16 facing Michigan in the Midwest bracket. I still think the committee will bump us to a 15... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 ORU's NCAA NET Ranking (the replacement index for RPI) has ORU a fairly respectable 158: 2020-21 NCAA Division 1 NET Rankings I wonder if the committee will place much (if any) emphasis on where schools (particularly automatic qualifiers) were seeded in their respective conference tournaments, with COVID wreaking havoc on league rankings & "who-played-who" within a conference. Winning the Summit as a 4-seed may not hurt ORU this year as it might otherwise under normal circumstances. I would be very surprised to see ORU as a 16; I think a 15 is much more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 TheEagleman agrees based on our 5 game winning streak and good non conference schedule I would say 15 at worst....if another upset or two we could move up to 14.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keenan Henderson Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 ESPN has ORU playing Houston, which would be a good matchup. Houston lost to Tulsa and East Carolina. So I think the Eagles could give them a good game! Just remembered that K.O., DJ, and Clover are from the Houston area, so they would be pumped to play the Cougars! Plus Coach Mills is from Houston Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, theeagleman5 said: TheEagleman agrees based on our 5 game winning streak and good non conference schedule I would say 15 at worst....if another upset or two we could move up to 14.... Not all upsets are the same: any low-&-mid-major leagues with an outlier champion might scoot ORU favorably up the list, but a surprise tournament champion in a major conference will claim an unexpected 12 or 13 seed, and might actually push ORU back down the seed list. It can get really murky in that 11, 12, and 13 range between mid-major automatic qualifiers and at-large teams, vs. at-large bubble teams and upset champions from the power leagues. Hard to predict the ripple effects, if any, down the line. Generally though, ORU wants upsets in any low-major tournaments still to be decided, few at-large candidates from the marginally-multiple bid mid-major leagues, and "chalk" for the big boys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texasgrip Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 I wonder if Max's D-1 top-scorer stat holds any weight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, Texasgrip said: I wonder if Max's D-1 top-scorer stat holds any weight? That might lead the committee to match us up against Iowa and Luka Garza, which would probably fall right into that 14/15 range... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 Someone on another message board (TU maybe?) suggested the committee might drop ORU all the way to a #16 play-in game just to hype that the nation's No. 1 scorer would be playing that night, but I would like to think the committee has better things to worry about than cable TV viewership for a 16-vs.-16 match-up on a Tuesday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTerry Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Athletic Department sent out an email that they will be welcoming the Men’s Basketball team back today between 5:30 and 6:00 in the Mabee Center parking lot. The plan is to line the entrance off 81st street directly south of the Mabee Center Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTerry Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Got this notice via email: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 Very cool! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 6 hours ago, Old Titan said: Not all upsets are the same: any low-&-mid-major leagues with an outlier champion might scoot ORU favorably up the list, but a surprise tournament champion in a major conference will claim an unexpected 12 or 13 seed, and might actually push ORU back down the seed list. It can get really murky in that 11, 12, and 13 range between mid-major automatic qualifiers and at-large teams, vs. at-large bubble teams and upset champions from the power leagues. Hard to predict the ripple effects, if any, down the line. Generally though, ORU wants upsets in any low-major tournaments still to be decided, few at-large candidates from the marginally-multiple bid mid-major leagues, and "chalk" for the big boys. We've had this conversation on the message board before, but it's been 13 years since it was relevant to ORU, so I don't expect anyone to remember it... At this stage, ORU's seeding can only improve from the low 15/high 16. Most bracket projections already assume that the top-ranked school remaining in each mid-major tournament will earn the trip to the Dance. If there's an upset in these one-bid mid-major conferences, and a team ranked lower than ORU steals a bid from a conference team ranked higher than ORU, ORU moves up a spot on the ladder. If a few of those upsets occur, the Golden Eagles could get a surprise 14 instead of the projected 15. But, a surprise tournament champion in a major conference can do nothing to lower ORU's seed, it simply bumps a team from the "last four in" to the "first four out". For example, Duke and Vanderbilt are currently not included in the field of 68, but are still alive (as of this moment) in their respective conference tournaments. If they both run the table and win their conference championship, they will each "steal a bid" from another at-large school. Currently, on Lunardi's projected bracket, Colorado State and Xavier are slated to play each other in the 12/12 game, and are considered the "last two in". If one of Duke/Vandy win the AQ, Xavier would be out of the tourney, and another school would drop down into the 12/12 game. If both Duke and Vandy win, then Colorado State and Xavier would both be out of the tourney, and two new at-large teams (currently projected as 12 or 11) would fall into the 12/12 game. But, it's only REPLACING one team above ORU with another team, so the number of higher teams stays the same. And, yes, while it does get "murky" in the 11/12/13 range with AQs and at-large teams, this still doesn't impact ORU's seeding. It just means that the at-large teams in that range are at risk (of either dropping to the First Four, or out of the tournament altogether) while the AQs can only experience a drop in seeding. Theoretically, a surprise major conference champion could actually IMPROVE ORU's seed. As an example, if either Iowa State (current NET of 223) or K-State (208) pull a HUGE upset and win the Big 12, they could conceivably end up with a worse seed than ORU (although running the table in the tournament would significantly improve their NET, and probably end up better than ORU's). But, again, their upset win would knock out another "Last Four In" at-large team, and have no negative impact to ORU. So, bubble teams are hoping for chalk in the major conferences, but care very little about the results of a one-bid mid major conference tourney. Whereas ORU (and other teams in the 13-16 range) are hoping for big upsets in the one-bid mid major tourneys, but are not negatively impacted by the outcome of major conference tournaments. If anyone has a scenario that blows up this theory, go for it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 11, 2021 Author Share Posted March 11, 2021 “Nobody said there would be math.” Seriously, though, that’s great stuff JB, but in terms of ORU getting pushed down the list, I was really only thinking about any particular case where a normally 1-bid league might end up with two teams in the field in the event of a really strong regular season champion getting upset in the final by an outlier who might get a 14, 15, or 16 seed that would never be given to ANY Power 5 team. I have never seen an automatic qualifier from a Power 5 school get a seed worse than a 13, but I have seen an upset winner of a low or mid major get anywhere from a 14 to a play-in 16. In that event, if the regular season champ of that league was strong enough to still get an at-large bid worse than a typical “bubble” 12 or 11 seed, I still think it could bump ORU down a notch. Unlikely, but conceivable. But, now my head is starting to hurt; I think I’ll go read some contract law or the Book of Leviticus, just to wind down... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTex Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Good analysis TrueBlue. I agree that the only upsets likely to affect ORU's seed are those that bring in a team ranked below us. The Bracket Matrix is a great resource that compares projections from 113 different prognosticators, from Lunardi at ESPN to some very obscure ones. It's now updated to show 105 of those that have updated their projected bracket to include ORU as the Summit representative, and we're now a 15 seed there (based on the average - there are plenty of 16's and currently three 14's thrown in there). That should only improve if and when any lower-ranked teams steal bids from current projected champs in other conferences. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTex Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 54 minutes ago, Old Titan said: I have never seen an automatic qualifier from a Power 5 school get a seed worse than a 13 This intrigued me, and I couldn't think of one offhand either. But Google found at least one example: In 2008, Georgia went on a surprise run through the SEC tournament to finish 17-16 (including 4-12 in the SEC regular season) and got a 14 seed. ORU was actually seeded ahead of them, at 13 that year. Not that we're in that same range this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texasgrip Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 23 hours ago, Texasgrip said: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/ They currently have ORU as a 16 facing Michigan in the Midwest bracket. I still think the committee will bump us to a 15... As of today, CBS has now moved ORU to the East Regional, still as a #16 vs. #1 Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 11, 2021 Author Share Posted March 11, 2021 13 hours ago, ORUTex said: Good analysis TrueBlue. I agree that the only upsets likely to affect ORU's seed are those that bring in a team ranked below us. The Bracket Matrix is a great resource that compares projections from 113 different prognosticators, from Lunardi at ESPN to some very obscure ones. It's now updated to show 105 of those that have updated their projected bracket to include ORU as the Summit representative, and we're now a 15 seed there (based on the average - there are plenty of 16's and currently three 14's thrown in there). That should only improve if and when any lower-ranked teams steal bids from current projected champs in other conferences. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ OK, somebody explain to me then why ORU, who was the lowest-regarded 15-Seed last night in The Bracket Matrix, is today one slot lower as the highest-regarded 16-Seed, based apparently on outlier Iona defeating top-seeded Siena in the Metro Atlantic Conference quarterfinals, putting them into ORU's previous 15 slot? Could be due to the strange case to be made by the Gaels, coached by the always-controversial Rick Pitino. They finished the season 10-5 overall and just 6-3 in league play due to COVID cancellations. Since the MAAC based their tournament seeding based on total wins instead of winning percentage, Iona was relegated to a 9-seed even though they tied for second place based on percentages. Now they've knocked off the 1-seed and are the favorite to advance. No telling where the NCAA committee might slot a team like that in the NCAA bracket in this crazy pandemic season, but the popular consensus appears to be ABOVE ORU, knocking them down a spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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