Old Titan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Prove me wrong (and, who ya got?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Although there are only two weekends left in the Summit season, there's still a lot of basketball left to be played (with half of the "Top Four vs. Top Four" matchups remaining on the schedule) - and a logjam at the top of the standings. For starters, I would agree with you that if ORU is swept in Vermillion, then the #4 seed is ORU's most likely finish - and UND is the probable #5. One fly in the ointment of that scenario could be if pesky UMKC (whose style of play can drive any opponent crazy) pulls off a split in Brookings the following weekend and finishes at 8-6, percentage points above UND's likely 9-7. Or, if NDSU is swept by either SDSU or USD (and splits the other), it would place ORU and the Bison into a tie-breaker. However, let's assume for a minute that each of the three remaining "Top Four" matchups are splits (since the first three have all been splits) and that the "Top Four" vs. the rest are all sweeps by the contenders (the Top Four are currently 36-12 against the rest). In this scenario, the world gets a little crazy. SDSU 9-3 NDSU 11-5 USD 11-5 ORU 11-5 UND 9-7 KC 8-6 In the three way tie for second, the head-to-head matchups would all be splits (eliminating head-to-head as a tie breaker), and each team's losses against the "non-Top Four" would be NDSU (KC and UND), ORU (KC and UND), and USD (UND and UND). So, SDSU would be the top seed, ORU and NDSU would tie for second (and I don't know how this tie-breaker would be broken, since their losses were to the exact same teams - anyone have the answer?***) and USD would fall to fourth (due to their two losses to the #5 seed) and would play UND. Now, just for fun, let's throw the fly back into the ointment - and assume that pesky UMKC wins one in Brookings. In that case, SDSU would finish 8-4, and fall all the way from first to fourth. UMKC would jump UND for the fifth seed, and the three-way tie for first would go to USD, since they swept UMKC while ORU and NDSU both lost one to the Roos. The ORU/NDSU tie for second would be be broken (somehow), with ORU possibly playing UND in the 3/6 game if NDSU wins the tie-breaker. In summary, I think that if someone was to run a mathematical probability scenario, UND would be ORU's most likely opponent in the first round. But, with all of the permutations and possibilities, I still think that the chances of facing UND are 50% or less, with the "field" comprising the other 50%. However, if ORU is swept this weekend, the UND chances increase significantly. ***After posting, I found the some dated Summit tie-breaker information, which suggested that the tie-breaker would be broken by RPI rating at end of season. I don't know if this would now be RPI or the NET rating. In any case, the current NET rating is NDSU 185/ORU 186 (wow!), and the RPI is ORU 200/NDSU 231.    1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrsSmith Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I love it when you do the analysis for me!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keenan Henderson Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Even Western Illinois might factor into this. They have won five in a row and have really good size. ORU is going to have there hands full with them in a couple of weeks. No guarantee the Eagles will beat WIU in back to back games. The league is really becoming very even 1-7 (Denver and Omaha still have work to do).  It should be an interesting conference tournament! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 Man, has THIS post not aged well! LOL Looks like ORU will still finish 4th as predicted, but how about those 'Roos of UMKC? They're making a solid push for 5th place and a first round match-up with the Golden Eagles. In fact, having avoided probably two losses by not playing SDSU due to COVID issues, UMKC could even pass ORU for 4th place once it's all said and done (the two teams are even in the loss column today going into ORU's second game with USD). 4 vs. 5; 5 vs. 4 - all it means is which color uniforms the two teams will wear... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 KC will need to pull off a win in Brookings (or have at least one game cancelled) to capture the #5 seed.  If SDSU sweeps, UND and KC will tie, with UND likely earning the #5 seed by virtue of their sweep of USD.  So, the likelihood of an ORU-UND first round matchup has actually INCREASED since last week.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, TrueBlue82 said: KC will need to pull off a win in Brookings (or have at least one game cancelled) to capture the #5 seed.  If SDSU sweeps, UND and KC will tie, with UND likely earning the #5 seed by virtue of their sweep of USD.  So, the likelihood of an ORU-UND first round matchup has actually INCREASED since last week.  Yeah, I keep looking at the loss column instead of the percentages, forgetting that UMKC playing two less games is a double-edged sword for them (wins and losses both magnified with fewer games played). I'm reminded once again why I don't bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Cornelius Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 45 minutes ago, TrueBlue82 said: So, the likelihood of an ORU-UND first round matchup has actually INCREASED since last week. Both are tough draws but I would rather play UND. UMKC's defense and long guards can slow Max down considerably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 "NEVER A DOUBT!!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Cornelius Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Two ESPN College Basketball writers picking ORU in the conference tournament. Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 If the first round follows form, then the SDSU-ORU semifinal on Monday night will be the crucial game of the tourney.   All I know is... 1) on any given night, ORU can beat or lose to ANY team in this tourney, and 2) with no fans and a quality team, this is ORU’s best chance to steal a tournament championship in the Dakotas.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Dr. Cornelius said: Two ESPN College Basketball writers picking ORU in the conference tournament. Â Â Interesting... At the bracket project website, the 100 listed "bracketologists" have the Summit automatic bid going to:Â USD 55 SDSU 44 NDSU 1 No mention of the #4 seed... Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Myron Medcalf (one of the ESPN analysts who chose ORU) is from the Twin Cities area and as a result should have a decent familiarity level with men’s basketball in the Summit League. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 USD's chances of winning the Tournament has dropped from 55% to 2%.....stick a fork in 'em......and the cancellation of that 2nd game in Vermillion may have cost ORU the 3rd seed and a semifinal match up vs. the Coyotes.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 1, 2021 Author Share Posted March 1, 2021 Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted March 1, 2021 Author Share Posted March 1, 2021 5 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said: with no fans and a quality team, this is ORU’s best chance to steal a tournament championship in the Dakotas.  BOLD PREDICTION: Dozens - if not hundreds - of SDSU fans will "surprisingly" find their way into the building for their games. And, commissioner Tom Douple won't do a darn thing about it. #SanfordHealth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keenan Henderson Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Good call OT on the first round matchup for ORU. The Eagles may have to beat North Dakota, South Dakota State, and North Dakota State to win the tournament! That is why very few are picking them to win. As we say every year: you have to beat the Dakota teams to win the Summit League (no matter who the coach or what players ORU has). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakesbison Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 Gonna be a weird tourney SDSU has choked a few years now which was hilarious! NDSU always won it with a Star PG (dont have that) ORU has 2 great players but after that meh USD has Umude then nothing UMKC has an annoying defense the rest is trash.  id say SDSU ORU 50/50 to win, NDSU can only do it if they shoot lights out for 3 games  ps State of SD is WIDE OPEN. never masks nor business retrictions.... SO THERE SHOULD BE FANS.  but the Summit League had too many colleges in other states whining. grrr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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