Old Titan Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Three conferences officially tip-off March Madness today. Here's the breakdown: BIG SOUTH - Winthrop is the heavy favorite here, and a text-book case of a team that might get left out if they lose: they're 25-4 for the year, a media darling with two wins over Top 50 teams, but their RPI is a dangerously-borderline 64 and their Strength of Schedule is only 226. Big South Tournament Preview I think we need Winthrop to go ahead and win this tournament - if they lose, they might steal an at-large bid and bump us down the seed ladder. OHIO VALLEY - It would be great for us if regular-season champ Austin Peay lost in this tournament - they are right there with us in the #14 seed range; anyone else who wins this one-bid league will most likely be a #16 and bump us up the list. Ohio Valley Tournament Preview HORIZON - This could be a two-bid league if Butler makes it to the finals, but loses: Horizon League Tournament Preview Butler and Wright State have byes to the semi's in this bizarre bracket, and Loyola could be a darkhorse. Only Butler has a quality RPI for at-large consideration. We need Butler to win this tournament. That should guarantee this is just a one-bid league, giving us a little wiggle room in the #14 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORU Eli Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 I'm willing to bet Winthrop won't get a bid if they lose the tourney and root for whoever they play. Butler on the other hand definitely needs to win their tourney cause they're going no matter what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTerry Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 As a side note, it is interesting how teams fluctuate during a season. Butler looked to totally dominate the Horizon League after playing so well in their non-conference games, and now will not even win the league championship. Same for Air Force. And it appears that Gonzaga will need to win their conference tournament to make the NCAA's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 I'm willing to bet Winthrop won't get a bid if they lose the tourney and root for whoever they play. Butler on the other hand definitely needs to win their tourney cause they're going no matter what. You're probably right, but I worry that too many people in college basketball's inner circles are looking at Winthrop as "this year's George Mason", and that they might sneak in as an at-large in the #12-to-#13 range. I would feel a lot more comfortable if they just went ahead and won their tournament... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 As a side note, it is interesting how teams fluctuate during a season. Butler looked to totally dominate the Horizon League after playing so well in their non-conference games, and now will not even win the league championship. Same for Air Force. And it appears that Gonzaga will need to win their conference tournament to make the NCAA's. Even worse free-falls: Oklahoma State, Wichita State, and Alabama. Perhaps ORU will look fairly consistent on paper to the selection committee, should they book-end their November win at Kansas with a convincing Mid-Con tournament showing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 As a side note, it is interesting how teams fluctuate during a season. Butler looked to totally dominate the Horizon League after playing so well in their non-conference games, and now will not even win the league championship. Same for Air Force. And it appears that Gonzaga will need to win their conference tournament to make the NCAA's. You've got to add the Cowboys and the Shockers as two other teams that were flying high early but are now struggling. Gonzaga is a great example of how tough it is to stay on top, year in year out, particularly when you're a "mid-major", if they're still even consdered one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTerry Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Thanks guys.... the list of inconsistent teams or squads that have hit the skids is fairly long. You could also add Arkansas and even Kentucky to that list. My customers in the Natural State are rumbling about Heath - not sure how safe his job is especially since Broyles is on his way out. Then again the instability at the top may help him. Could also add Marquette to the teams that have faltered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 You're probably right, but I worry that too many people in college basketball's inner circles are looking at Winthrop as "this year's George Mason", and that they might sneak in as an at-large in the #12-to-#13 range. I would feel a lot more comfortable if they just went ahead and won their tournament... I"m predicting right now (with relatively little risk ) - if Winthrop doesn't win the Big South Tournament they WILL NOT get an at large bid! Of course, they went 14-0 in conference (and won on the road against MO State in the BB) and are unlikely to falter at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djenkins13 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Heath may have to make the tourney to keep his job at Ark.. Also the coach at TCU is getting ready to get the ax!! Does Wichita St make the tourney and how about MoST? Surely they won't get screwed again. Gonzaga has no inside presence with the Mushroom kid out for the rest of the year. Does Tulsa have a chance at the NIT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 I'm predicting right now...if Winthrop doesn't win the Big South Tournament, they WILL NOT get an at-large bid! I honestly wouldn't bet against you. The gambler in me wants to see Winthrop lose, and have High Point or Liberty get their conference's only bid as a #16. The conservative in me wants to see Winthrop win, and eliminate any doubt of them getting in otherwise, on hype... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 Heath may have to make the tourney to keep his job at Ark.. Also the coach at TCU is getting ready to get the ax!! Does Wichita St make the tourney and how about MoST? Surely they won't get screwed again. Gonzaga has no inside presence with the Mushroom kid out for the rest of the year. Does Tulsa have a chance at the NIT. Gonzaga: With RPI of 69, appears they must win conference tournament for NCAA; NIT guaranteed since they clinched their conference regular season last night. Wichita State: Must win conference tournament for NCAA, virtual lock for NIT otherwise. Missouri State: Should be in NCAA regardless of what happens from here on out, but a couple of wins in the MVC tourney wouldn't hurt. Tulsa: Longshot at best for NIT; RPI is in the 120's. Of course, they could always just upset Memphis and win the C-USA tournament, if they choose. OSU: Probably needs to win out AND advance to AT LEAST the semi-finals of Big XII tourney for an at-large look from NCAA; a lock for the NIT - if they want it. OU - Only chance at NCAA is winning Big XII tournament. On the NIT bubble with RPI over 100, but 25-year streak of postseason play may help them in NIT selection committee's eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 IF Winthrop does NOT win the Big South Tourney, then it won't matter to ORU if Winthrop gets an at-large bid or not, because our seeding will be determined from the bottom up, not from the top down. For ORU, it would be better for Winthrop to lose, because then the Big South tourney winner would get a 16 seed, and that pushes us up toward the 14 seed. In the scenario where Winthrop loses in the Big South Tourney, but still gets an at-large bid (would probably have to make it to the conference final for that to even be a remote possibility), they would probably get a 12 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 28, 2007 Author Share Posted February 28, 2007 In the scenario where Winthrop loses in the Big South Tourney, but still gets an at-large bid (would probably have to make it to the conference final for that to even be a remote possibility), they would probably get a 12 seed. ...which might produce a trickle DOWN effect that impacts ORU. For example, if Wright State wins the Horizon tournament: they should get a #13 seed, but an at-large Winthrop at #12 could bump some other #12 down to #13, moving a #13 Wright State down to a #14, which might in turn bump an otherwise #14 ORU down to a #15. We basically want the #12, #13, and #14 slots to remain as unpopulated as possible, leaving room for ORU to move up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted February 28, 2007 Share Posted February 28, 2007 Actually, OT, I think what Jason is saying is that Winthrop's inclusion in the tourney (in the case of a Big South loss) would not impact ORU's seeding, because if Winthrop is NOT included, another at-large team would take its place as a 11/12, which is generally where the last "at-large" bid falls. So, a Winthrop inclusion in the field might have an impact on Missouri State's (and other bubble teams) chances of making the field, but not ORU's seeding. Although it took me awhile to think this through, I tend to agree with Jason's analysis of the "bottom-up" approach - the more teams that make the field below us, the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 28, 2007 Author Share Posted February 28, 2007 No upsets of No. 1 seeds in tonight's conference tournaments, though Austin Peay was pushed to overtime by bottom seed Tennessee State in the Ohio Valley. Here are the tournaments that begin on Wednesday: PATRIOT: Holy Cross is the favorite here, and is bracketed in the #13 neighborhood right now - anyone else winning this tournament, with the possible exception of #84 RPI Bucknell, would be seeded lower that ORU, and would help bump us up. So a Holy Cross loss (pun intended) might be....boss? (ouch!) Patriot League Tournament Preview SUN BELT: This is not your father's Sun Belt: the regular season champ and tournament favorite South Alabama has a 119 RPI and is projected as a #15 seed in this one-bidder: Sun Belt Tournament Preview Probably doesn't affect ORU either way, but a win from a darkhorse in this league couldn't hurt. Is anyone else surprised how far this former multi-bid conference has slipped? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stl VU Fan Posted February 28, 2007 Share Posted February 28, 2007 I'm willing to bet Winthrop won't get a bid if they lose the tourney and root for whoever they play. Butler on the other hand definitely needs to win their tourney cause they're going no matter what. OK, I need help here. I was with ya on the first sentence until "and root for whoever they play", at which point I punted. The second sentence is either sarcasm or there's a word missing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EagleFanatic Posted February 28, 2007 Share Posted February 28, 2007 He meant that Butler needs to win theyre tournament, because if they dont, they will be an at-large, and the team that won the conference tourny will be in as an automatic. So in that scenario there would be two teams instead of only one from that conference. Make any better sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 28, 2007 Author Share Posted February 28, 2007 He meant that Butler needs to win theyre tournament, because if they dont, they will be an at-large, and the team that won the conference tourny will be in as an automatic. So in that scenario there would be two teams instead of only one from that conference. Make any better sense? Just barely! ("win theyre tournament"?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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