Jump to content

23-24 Preseason Prognostications


Old Titan

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, TrueBlue82 said:

This team has yet to find its identity.  It has won the games it was supposed to win, and lost the games it was supposed to lose.  It has played better than expected in some losses (A&M, K-State) and worse than expected in some wins (Texas Southern, JBU), but the W-L record has not varied.  The next six games will be very telling - three winnable (but tight) games on the road and three home games that ORU should win, but could easily lose.  And, with the start of Summit play, getting out of the blocks quickly will be very important for tournament seeding.  The REAL season starts now...

Couldn’t agree more

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Old Titan said:

I will be REALLY surprised if ORU wins any of these next three games @ UMKC, @ Denver and @ Montana State.

I think OT may be correct if we play like we have in the past 2 games. However if the team that played K State and Texas Tech show up I like our chances of winning . I pray the latter team show up!!!

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, eagle88 said:

I think OT may be correct if we play like we have in the past 2 games. However if the team that played K State and Texas Tech show up I like our chances of winning . I pray the latter team show up!!!

SImply put, teams that get out-rebounded and don't make their free throws don't win on the road.

As stated in a previous post, until ORU wins a road game, it's hard to pick them to do so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If they are going to win on the road in conference play then ORU needs McBride to be more aggressive.  He is one of the best point guards at driving and finishing thru contact or getting to the free throw line.  Yes he has been trying to get everyone involved and let the game come to him but if he can get going early, then that will open it for the 3s.

Since McBride joined the Eagles, ORU is 16-2 on the road in conference play.  He is the leader and has a lot of experience winning on the road.  Time to carry the Eagles to some road victories!

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

When I was watching McBride last night, he looked like he was breathing really hard. I think this playing 40 minutes is getting exhausting! He needs a break; so does Kareem. But for that to happen, other guys have to step up. 

A work in progress...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/28/2023 at 9:34 AM, TrueBlue82 said:

This team is difficult to evaluate with the portal losses of Max and Connor, and a new coach.  I think the chemistry will come together as the season progresses and that ORU will be a tough opponent in Sioux Falls in March. but the road getting there may be pretty rocky.  

To me, the kenpom analysis of the season is a pretty good place to start.  In his work, 15 of our 29 games should have a margin of more than five points, and in those games, ORU will have a 10-5 record.  Wins include the three non D1's, Tulsa, all Summit home games (6) except the XDSU's.  Losses include the four non-conference road games against power 5 competition and the road game at SDSU.

This leaves 14 games in the toss-up category, of which four are home games and ten are on the road.  Kenpom has ORU favored in nine of those games, but the "ten on the road" is concerning to me.  As a result, I have ORU finishing 7-7 in these toss-up games, which would be a reasonable result IMHO.  We will find out a lot about this team on opening night, as the game at UTA is one of those ten road trip toss-ups.

Final regular season record 17-12; Summit 10-6; Non-Conference 7-6.  ORU reaches the tourney championship game, but falls to the "hometown" Jackrabbits.  Overall record of 19-13, and a likely bid to CIT, if we choose to participate.

Record at end of:

November 3-3

December 7-6

January 12-9

February 16-12

March 19-13, plus CIT

Due to all of the unknowns, I'll likely prepare version 2.0 around Christmas time pre-Summit League.

As "promised" in my October pre-season post above, I've relooked at the season prediction now that we're heading into Summit play.

Version 2.0

Surprisingly, my prediction ends up at the same place that it started, but with a different route.  I was hoping that ORU would "steal" a win at either UTA or MoSt, but that (obviously) didn't happen. The remaining non-con games are against the Big Sky in early January, and I'm still hopeful that we will earn a split in those two games. Both matchups will be tough, but winnable, so I'll flip a coin and say that ORU will pull one of them out.  This will finish our non-conference at 6-7.

The Summit is actually much worse than I thought it would be, with no team in the Top 150 nationally.  As a result, I think the "win at home, split on the road" is very do-able, although I do think it will be tough to sweep at home.  Therefore, I'll go with 7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road for a final record of 11-5, which gets ORU right back to the 17-12 mark.  I do think ORU will be a tough out in March, but SDSU will still prevail in the title game in Sioux Falls to end ORU's season at 19-13, pending a CIT bid.

That said, the Summit has such parity that I wouldn't be shocked to see ORU finish 8-8 in conference play and lose in the first round of the tourney.  Interesting days ahead - and the next four games will lay the foundation for the remainder of the Summit season.

 

  • Upvote 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said:

As "promised" in my October pre-season post above, I've relooked at the season prediction now that we're heading into Summit play.

Version 2.0

Surprisingly, my prediction ends up at the same place that it started, but with a different route.  I was hoping that ORU would "steal" a win at either UTA or MoSt, but that (obviously) didn't happen. The remaining non-con games are against the Big Sky in early January, and I'm still hopeful that we will earn a split in those two games. Both matchups will be tough, but winnable, so I'll flip a coin and say that ORU will pull one of them out.  This will finish our non-conference at 6-7.

The Summit is actually much worse than I thought it would be, with no team in the Top 150 nationally.  As a result, I think the "win at home, split on the road" is very do-able, although I do think it will be tough to sweep at home.  Therefore, I'll go with 7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road for a final record of 11-5, which gets ORU right back to the 17-12 mark.  I do think ORU will be a tough out in March, but SDSU will still prevail in the title game in Sioux Falls to end ORU's season at 19-13, pending a CIT bid.

That said, the Summit has such parity that I wouldn't be shocked to see ORU finish 8-8 in conference play and lose in the first round of the tourney.  Interesting days ahead - and the next four games will lay the foundation for the remainder of the Summit season.

 

Typically more optimistic than my outlook. 

Which is:  there’s no one in the league incapable of beating ORU at home or away. 

And I’m hard-pressed to think of any guaranteed road wins for ORU in league play. 

8-8 sounds about right; though who knows where or when the W/L’s will occur. 

Buckle in; it’s going to be a bumpy ride. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Old Titan said:

Typically more optimistic than my outlook. 

Which is:  there’s no one in the league incapable of beating ORU at home or away. 

And I’m hard-pressed to think of any guaranteed road wins for ORU in league play. 

8-8 sounds about right; though who knows where or when the W/L’s will occur. 

Buckle in; it’s going to be a bumpy ride. 

You could definitely be right. Winning games is hard. However, I don’t think there’s anyone in the conference that ORU can’t beat. I still think this team has a really high ceiling and will end up playing to their potential by the end of the year. I think 11-5 or even 12-4 in conference is reasonable and is what I actually think they will do. Although I think the potential of this team is high enough that they could make it through conference play with only one or two losses. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Idig32 said:

You could definitely be right. Winning games is hard. However, I don’t think there’s anyone in the conference that ORU can’t beat. I still think this team has a really high ceiling and will end up playing to their potential by the end of the year. I think 11-5 or even 12-4 in conference is reasonable and is what I actually think they will do. Although I think the potential of this team is high enough that they could make it through conference play with only one or two losses. 

I think 12-4 wins the regular season this year; 11-5 could be a tie for the regular season championship as well with tie-breakers determining the seeding.  No game should be overlooked - home or away - in order to have a successful season.

The question is.....which game(s) will be the most challenging to attempt to break the home court winning streak???  🤔

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Bogus Smith said:

The question is.....which game(s) will be the most challenging to attempt to break the home court winning streak???  🤔

Weber State next week.

(while we're thinking about it, here's hoping Adam figures out it's "wee-bur", not "webber" some time before tip-off on the 6th...)

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weber St. will be a tall task at home....they are 8-4 and playing well...beat Montana by 30 last night.....image.png.f3a38006daada4873dd1f299f5ffa4c7.png

PS...tomorrow night Weber St hosts Montana St...will be interesting since ORU plays both teams next week......:tb-white:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Old Titan said:

Weber State next week.

(while we're thinking about it, here's hoping Adam figures out it's "wee-bur", not "webber" some time before tip-off on the 6th...)

All right friends, without doing an internet search, who can give me the name of the NBA championship coach that got his start at Weber St?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dillon Jones from Weber State is a monster and will be a tough cover. He’s an undersized forward but a double-double machine. Closest comp I can think of is current Memphis Grizzlies role player David Roddy, who ORU saw two years ago at Colorado state. I’m guessing Kareem gets the assignment, will be fun to watch.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Otis 83 said:

All right friends, without doing an internet search, who can give me the name of the NBA championship coach that got his start at Weber St?

I thought it might be Nick Nurse, current 76ers head coach who won an NBA championship with Kawhi Leonard at Toronto in 2019, but when I looked it up, I was surprised that I was WAY off, at least chronologically.

The irony is that the NBA champion that our Weber State mystery man coached was one of my favorite NBA teams of all time - they were tough as nails! 💪

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Old Titan said:

I thought it might be Nick Nurse, current 76ers head coach who won an NBA championship with Kawhi Leonard at Toronto in 2019, but when I looked it up, I was surprised that I was WAY off, at least chronologically.

The irony is that the NBA champion that our Weber State mystery man coached was one of my favorite NBA teams of all time - they were tough as nails! 💪

Yes they were! I have a small home field advantage on this trivia question.

This former coach is also the answer to one of my other favorite trivia questions. 

Which coach saw his first NBA game the same night he coaches his first NBA game?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Otis 83 said:

Yes they were! I have a small home field advantage on this trivia question.

This former coach is also the answer to one of my other favorite trivia questions. 

Which coach saw his first NBA game the same night he coaches his first NBA game?

Resisting the temptation to mention his favorite quote re: the opera and corpulent women. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...