Expectations for upcoming season

[ORU40]

On 10/4/2022 at 7:54 PM, Mr_TwoFive said:

This is true but philosophy plays a big role as well. Sutton’s prime teams, defended. They may or may not out score you, but they could shut your water off.

Saying that, there’s no doubt that the current staff focuses and puts time into the defensive end - schemes, rotations, etc. I’ve seen it. But that’s not their identity. They pride themselves on playing extremely hard with multiple efforts, limiting turnovers, PPP, shooting the 3 ball, and ultimately going through Max. With their style of play, they can’t be great at both. They need those legs for the offensive end.

It’s not a bad thing, they just have to find a way to get stops when needed. Whatever that looks like. They found ways to get the job done during their historic run. It can be done. 

I have to respectfully disagree with you on this 25. Good teams always place a primary emphasis on tough D, that has to be the foundation of your team, your program, your culture. I don't agree that you can win consistently just trying to outscore teams and saving your legs for offense and getting stops when needed. You can't just turn on being a good defensive team when you want to. I think we proved that last year.

Looking back at our historic sweet 16 run, in those 3 NCAA games we played our best defensive team, the rotation was basically reduced to 6 players, Max and KO played 45,40 and 40 minutes in those 3 games,  Kareem played 44,34 and 37 and Carlos played 42, 35 and 35 and Francis started a played significant minutes and DJ came off the bench for good minutes, those were the only players that got any real time, Stevens got about 6 per game.  Looking at that rotation KO and Lacis were both TOUGH inside defenders and good rebounders, Carlos and Kareem are probably our 2 best perimeter defenders. The regular season we were not a great team, but they won those big games with defense and our 1-2 punch of Max coming off KO's screen up top to get his own shot or kick it back to KO for the 3 that was run to perfection.

Last season we reduced Carlos and Kareem down to about 22 mpg each and gave a lot of those perimeter minutes to our 2 new guards, we scored a lot of points, but fell short because we could not stop good teams. We need to make D the way to earn minutes, play tough D every possession and if a guy wants to take a play off do it on the offensive end, we have plenty of guys that will shoot the ball.

In my opinion, teams that have an offensive based philosophy don't win the close games when needed, like in the conference tourney when games slow down and you have to play good sound tough defense. If we want to win our conf. and get back into the tourney it has to start on the defensive end of the court!!!      

[Keenan Henderson]

Looking at those two wins against Ohio State and Florida and ORU had an average of 11 steals in those games!  Talk about defense, that is twice as much as they averaged per game last year (5.5 steals).  Carlos was a big part of that success but last year he only averaged 0.5 steals per game.  The key to the defense is forcing turnovers that then lead to easy points and break the morale of the other team.  Patrick should help in that department.

[Keenan Henderson]

How do you like Max and McBride as a 1-2 scoring punch?  The main issue is that they are very similar players: smaller guards, like to shoot the three and drive the ball to the basket but struggle on defense.  Usually, the more effective top scorers are a combo of a guard and an inside guy.  More of an inside/outside combination.  Not sure if ORU has that this year.  How will Max and Connor work together?  Any expectations?

[Mr_TwoFive]

On 10/6/2022 at 1:20 PM, ORU40 said:

I have to respectfully disagree with you on this 25. Good teams always place a primary emphasis on tough D, that has to be the foundation of your team, your program, your culture. I don't agree that you can win consistently just trying to outscore teams and saving your legs for offense and getting stops when needed. You can't just turn on being a good defensive team when you want to. I think we proved that last year.

Looking back at our historic sweet 16 run, in those 3 NCAA games we played our best defensive team, the rotation was basically reduced to 6 players, Max and KO played 45,40 and 40 minutes in those 3 games,  Kareem played 44,34 and 37 and Carlos played 42, 35 and 35 and Francis started a played significant minutes and DJ came off the bench for good minutes, those were the only players that got any real time, Stevens got about 6 per game.  Looking at that rotation KO and Lacis were both TOUGH inside defenders and good rebounders, Carlos and Kareem are probably our 2 best perimeter defenders. The regular season we were not a great team, but they won those big games with defense and our 1-2 punch of Max coming off KO's screen up top to get his own shot or kick it back to KO for the 3 that was run to perfection.

Last season we reduced Carlos and Kareem down to about 22 mpg each and gave a lot of those perimeter minutes to our 2 new guards, we scored a lot of points, but fell short because we could not stop good teams. We need to make D the way to earn minutes, play tough D every possession and if a guy wants to take a play off do it on the offensive end, we have plenty of guys that will shoot the ball.

In my opinion, teams that have an offensive based philosophy don't win the close games when needed, like in the conference tourney when games slow down and you have to play good sound tough defense. If we want to win our conf. and get back into the tourney it has to start on the defensive end of the court!!!      

Not sure what you’re disagreeing with. I did not advocate for the out-scoring philosophy. Just stating what it appears to be.

I agree. You want to play, then DEFEND! But that’s not this teams philosophy. Well I don’t think it is. I like how they get up and down and all of them have the green light from 3. It can really boost everyone’s confidence. It’s fun to watch — when shots are falling…  It’s unrealistic to think they will come out this year and be the defensive-minded team you guys want them to be. IMO, that would require a pretty big shift in philosophy and personnel.

I’m sure this staff has been hard at work to improve in the areas that needed improvement. 

[Keenan Henderson]

Hoping that Coach Mills does not just use Max and Connor in a pick and pop role all season.  The guy is 7'5 it only makes sense to roll him to the rim at least once and awhile.  Also, McBride and Connor are old teammates from high school, so we should see some chemistry/understanding between them.  Maybe some lob passes to the big guy at the rim.  How many teams can defend that? Very few.

 

[ORob2]

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/34651536/mid-major-2022-23-conference-predictions-gonzaga-win-national-championship

 

LOTS of ORU shout outs in this article!  All 4 of the guys in this article voted ORU as the likely Summit League Champs too!

[eagle88]

Great to see the love they are showing for ORU! Lunardi is really showing love for Max! I have been hearing that practices are going well and they are working a lot more on defense and that aspect should be considerably better this year. Our offense needless to say will be potent with shooters  at most positions.

[Old Titan]

On the heels of the conference preseason poll, here's my Bold Prediction for Summit League play in 2022-23:

1.  SDSU (15-3)
2.  USD (13-5)
3.  ORU (12-6)
4.  NDSU (10-8)
5.  Denver (9-9)
6.  Western lllinois (8-10)
7.  UMKC (8-10)
8.  St. Thomas (6-12)
9.  Omaha (5-13)
10.  UND (4-14)

(and yes, unlike some of the so-called national experts, the wins & losses add up properly to 90 per side...)

[oruvoice]

6 minutes ago, Old Titan said:

On the heels of the conference preseason poll, here's my Bold Prediction for Summit League play in 2022-23:

1.  SDSU (15-3)
2.  USD (13-5)
3.  ORU (12-6)
4.  NDSU (10-8)
5.  Denver (9-9)
6.  Western lllinois (8-10)
7.  UMKC (8-10)
8.  St. Thomas (6-12)
9.  Omaha (5-13)
10.  UND (4-14)

(and yes, unlike some of the so-called national experts, the wins & losses add up properly to 90 per side...)

3rd place and 3 full games out of first place? You definitely can't be accused of being a homer. 

[ORUFan2009]

22 hours ago, Old Titan said:

On the heels of the conference preseason poll, here's my Bold Prediction for Summit League play in 2022-23:

1.  SDSU (15-3)
2.  USD (13-5)
3.  ORU (12-6)
4.  NDSU (10-8)
5.  Denver (9-9)
6.  Western lllinois (8-10)
7.  UMKC (8-10)
8.  St. Thomas (6-12)
9.  Omaha (5-13)
10.  UND (4-14)

(and yes, unlike some of the so-called national experts, the wins & losses add up properly to 90 per side...)

What???

I'm all for looking at things from an impartial perspective but 3rd in conference play? Really? That kind of prediction says we're closer to winning a bid to the CBI than NCAA.  

Anything less than 15-3 would be disappointing. However, this squad could very well run the table in conference play. My prediction is 16-2

[Old Titan]

2 hours ago, ORUFan2009 said:

What???

I'm all for looking at things from an impartial perspective but 3rd in conference play? Really? That kind of prediction says we're closer to winning a bid to the CBI than NCAA.  

Anything less than 15-3 would be disappointing. However, this squad could very well run the table in conference play. My prediction is 16-2

I'm inclined to ride historic trends until they change.

Since rejoining the Summit League for the 2014-15 season, here is ORU's W-L record against perennial "top half" dwellers SDSU, NDSU, and USD:

• SDSU:  3-15 (0-7 away, 2-7 home, 1-1 neutral)
• NDSU:  6-15 (1-8 away, 4-3 home, 1-4 neutral)
• USD:  6-9 (3-5 away, 3-4 home, 0-0 neutral)

All three of those teams are predicted to finish in the top four of the league again this year.

You're saying ORU will have only two losses for the entire regular season, including 6 home-and-away games vs. that trio?

Sorry, not seeing it:  I think ORU will lose all the road games vs. those three, and probably one of the return games in Tulsa. 

That's four losses right there, plus in my mind two more road losses:  Denver, and either Western or UMKC. 

That spells 12-6, and a third place finish again.

But, as always, I would be thrilled to be proven wrong!

 

[RiderJake]

On 10/6/2022 at 9:20 PM, ORU40 said:

I have to respectfully disagree with you on this 25. Good teams always place a primary emphasis on tough D, that has to be the foundation of your team, your program, your culture. I don't agree that you can win consistently just trying to outscore teams and saving your legs for offense and getting stops when needed. You can't just turn on being a good defensive team when you want to. I think we proved that last year.

Looking back at our historic sweet 16 run, in those 3 NCAA games we played our best defensive team, the rotation was basically reduced to 6 players, Max and KO played 45,40 and 40 minutes in those 3 games,  Kareem played 44,34 and 37 and Carlos played 42, 35 and 35 and Francis started a played significant minutes and DJ came off the bench for good minutes, those were the only players that got any real time, Stevens got about 6 per game.  Looking at that rotation KO and Lacis were both TOUGH inside defenders and good rebounders, Carlos and Kareem are probably our 2 best perimeter defenders. The regular season we were not a great team, but they won those big games with defense and our 1-2 punch of Max coming off KO's screen up top to get his own shot or kick it back to KO for the 3 that was run to perfection.

Last season we reduced Carlos and Kareem down to about 22 mpg each and gave a lot of those perimeter minutes to our 2 new guards, we scored a lot of points, but fell short because we could not stop good teams. We need to make D the way to earn minutes, play tough D every possession and if a guy wants to take a play off do it on the offensive end, we have plenty of guys that will shoot the ball.

In my opinion, teams that have an offensive based philosophy don't win the close games when needed, like in the conference tourney when games slow down and you have to play good sound tough defense. If we want to win our conf. and get back into the tourney it has to start on the defensive end of the court!!!      

Defense is important. But without offense, there is no victory. No game ends 0-0, does it? It's not soccer
But I agree with the fact that you need to start with the defense - that's the most important thing. After all, conceded points = defeat.

[ORob2]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-predict-schedule?team=Oral-Roberts

 

This feels like a worst case scenario predictions for our guys, including only winning 2 non-conference D1 games

[ORob1]

Wow...That's a grim outlook.  I suppose this guy is from somewhere in the Dakotas.  I've never heard of the site.

[TrueBlue82]

4 minutes ago, ORob1 said:

Wow...That's a grim outlook.  I suppose this guy is from somewhere in the Dakotas.  I've never heard of the site.

Actually, Warren Nolan is a really good site - I'd say that he is slightly below Ken Pomeroy, but not far.  However, in this case, I think that he is likely just using historical data.  This site will become much more interesting (and accurate) by early December, once early season game results have been loaded.

[TrueBlue82]

On 10/2/2022 at 7:21 PM, Old Titan said:

You go first.

Then, I'll wait till the very end, where TrueBlue82 will tell us all what's really gonna happen. 

I've waited (and avoided this) for three weeks, hoping for more information on this team, but we're probably not going to know anything further until the Eagles actually take the court two weeks from tonight.  And so, I'll make my pre-season prediction, knowing that I'll have a chance to reconsider and recalibrate in mid-December before the conference season begins...

I highly value the kenpom dataset, and have used it extensively in my prediction preparation.  There are 16 of the 30 regular season games that kenpom rates as "80% likely outcome", and in those games ORU is projected to go 14-2.  This includes losses at St. Mary's and Houston, and wins in the four non-D1 home games, UCA at home, six Summit League home games and three conference road games.  I'll stick with the 80/20 rule - and agree with the 14-2 record in those games.

The non-conference "toss-ups" (less than 80% chance) include road games at Texas Southern, Utah State, and Tulsa - and home games with Mo State and Liberty.  I'll project 2-3 in these five games, since three are on the road.  I would probably predict 3-2 if we weren't playing Texas Southern the day after playing Houston, as that has "trap game" written all over it.  To me, TU on the road and Liberty at home are both coin flips, and the overall 2-3 record reflects this.

Conference "toss-ups" include two home games with the South Dakota schools (the opening weekend), and seven road games with Denver, Western, St Thomas, KC, NDSU. SDSU and USD.  Even though kenpom has these all at less than 80% probability, the model also has ORU favored in six of those nine games, going 6-3.  I'm predicting 5-4 (4-3 on the road and 1-1 at home) simply because I find it hard to believe that we will sweep the Summit at home, based on recent experience.  

In summary, with a non-conference record of 7-5 and a Summit finish at 14-4, ORU would close the regular season at 21-9, which should earn the Eagles at least a share of the Summit title and a 1 or 2 seed.

For post-season, ORU wins two to reach the tournament title game, but falls in the championship game against one of the Dakota schools with a huge "neutral court" advantage.  By virtue of winning the regular season, ORU advances to the NIT with a 23-10 record.

Obviously, I hope that I am wrong, and that Max gets another chance for some "Midcourt Magic" at the Big Dance, but it's a tall order to predict that at this point.  I see the ceiling on this team at 26-7, and the floor at 19-13 (losing in the Summit semis).

Can't wait for the opener two weeks from tonight in the Bay Area against St. Mary's - and I'll be there cheering the Eagles on for the rest of you! 

   

  

 

[Keenan Henderson]

That is the key: winning the conference tournament in South Dakota.  Every year, no matter the coach or players, ORU will have to beat two or even three Dakota teams, in basically road type games.  Not easy for any school, which is why the Dakota teams have dominated the tournament the last ten years.  Even when the Eagles won it in 2021, it was on a neutral floor because no fans were allowed during Covid.

Losing Lufile was huge because now the Eagles are back to being mainly a three point shooting or guard heavy team.  He was the only muscle inside that could take over the offensive glass.  That is just not how Connor or Herron are built.  They are long stretch fours that have to defend the post.  

When the three point shots are hitting, then the Eagles are tough to beat but otherwise they will struggle.  Still no post up players on the roster and when Connor is out, ORU will most likely go back to the small ball style of play.  Get ready for DJ to have to guard the center spot at times again this year.  Nothing agaisnt DJ but that is not a good look defensively.

[Old Titan]

The reason the Dakota schools have dominated the tournament in Sioux Falls is because they have been the best teams in the league over that span.

If they were finishing in the lower half in the regular season and then riding a wave of upsets to steal an NCAA bid, then I could buy the home court advantage argument.  But that simply has not been the case.

In fact, SDSU has suffered a number of first-round and semi-final upsets as a top seed in Sioux Falls with all their fans in attendance, and NDSU winning a couple of titles while not being a favorite can hardly be attributed to any home court advantage:  Fargo is 250 miles away from Sioux Falls.