NormanDale Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 This may not interest anyone else ... but I thought it was worth a post. I'm always intrigued by the ISR (Iterative Strength Ratings) rankings from Boyd's World. He believes it's a better judge of team ranking than RPI. According to these probabilities, OU has the third lowest chance of any #1 seed to win their regional (54.5%). All but two #1's are given at least a 50% chance of holding serve - Louisville (47.3%) and TCU (48.4%). These rankings aren't all that kind to ORU. Giving us a mere 3.6% chance of winning the Tempe Regional, a 1.2% chance of winning a super regional, a 0.1% chance at making the final, and a 0.0% chance at bringing home a title. Cal-Poly (7.6%) is actually given a higher probability of making the Super Regionals than we are. These rankings LOVE Fullerton, giving the Titans a 32.6% chance to win it all. Three teams have better than a 10% probability of taking the crown, with the other two being Arizona State (19.2%) and Texas (13.2%). Below are the Tempe and Norman Regional probabilities. The complete list can be found at http://boydsworld.com/data/fieldprobs2009.html. Norman Regional Reg Super Final Champ Team 54.5 34.6 5.5 2.2 Oklahoma 32.0 13.8 1.7 0.5 Arkansas 11.3 3.9 0.3 0.1 Washington State 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Wichita State Tempe Regional Reg Super Final Champ Team 88.6 78.2 34.1 19.2 Arizona State 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 Oral Roberts 7.6 3.0 0.4 0.1 Cal Poly 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kent State Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 where did u find the old stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormanDale Posted May 28, 2009 Author Share Posted May 28, 2009 None of these stats are old ... they're all probabilities from the current field of 64. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 These rankings LOVE Fullerton, giving the Titans a 32.6% chance to win it all ... more than two and a half times more than Texas (the 2nd highest probability) at 13.2%. Those are the only two teams given higher than a 10% chance to win it all. Actually, it would appear our very own host Arizona State is given the second-best chance to win it all at 19.2%, with Texas the third favorite. Interesting stuff, though - especially the #4 Seeds given a 0.0% chance of winning their regionals. That sort of absolute denial is likely to get Mr. Boyd burned one of these days. He should take a moment to remember these are not just theoretical algorithms in a computer simulation; they're 18-and-19-year-old boys playing a game in the dirt. And stranger things have happened... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 It burned him last year when no. 4 Fresno won it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormanDale Posted May 28, 2009 Author Share Posted May 28, 2009 Actually, it would appear our very own host Arizona State is given the second-best chance to win it all at 19.2%, with Texas the third favorite. Good catch ... I've made the change to reflect it above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bogus Smith Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 These rankings LOVE Fullerton, giving the Titans a 32.6% chance to win it all. Three teams have better than a 10% probability of taking the crown, with the other two being Arizona State (19.2%) and Texas (13.2%). I have to agree. I have the Titans taking the Championship game, too. They showed me a lot when they took it to us in March; however, I'd love to meet up with them in the CWS and see where we stand today!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted May 29, 2009 Share Posted May 29, 2009 Cal-Fullerton vs. ORU in the CWS Final....sounds good to TheEagleman!... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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