TrueBlue82 Posted December 26, 2005 Share Posted December 26, 2005 As has been my ritual for the past five years during the Christmas vacation, I've used the Sagarin ratings to predict the final Mid-Con standings. Amazingly, this same procedure in previous years has predicted over 70% of the games right (although some were played two months after the prediction!) While Tony Mejia of CBS.Sportsline generally picks winners with 72-74% percent accuracy, his are all game-day picks. Frankly, I'm more impressed with picking all the games of the conference season in advance of the season with a 70% accuracy. In other words, history has proven that the year-end standings will look pretty close to this: Valpo 15-1 ORU 14-2 IUPUI 11-5 Chi St 8-8 Oak 8-8 UMKC 5-11 WIU 5-11 SUU 3-13 Cent 3-13 It looks like a two-horse race (no big surprise!) Valpo's only projected loss is in Tulsa, while ORU is picked to post losses at Valpo and in Indy. Personally, I believe 13-3 will win the conference title (or at least a share of it), that ORU, VU, IUPUI will finish 1-2-3, in that order, and that no other team will be close to the top three. So, who will win the regular season conference title, and with what final W-L record? Conference play begins Tuesday night! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EagleFanatic Posted December 26, 2005 Share Posted December 26, 2005 I do believe ORU will be able to put it all together and win the conference. A record of 14-2. My geuss we lose to 2 teams we didnt expect to lose to on the road. I think ORU values the Valpo game and will really gear themselves up for that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted December 26, 2005 Share Posted December 26, 2005 While Tony Mejia of CBS.Sportsline generally picks winners with 72-74% percent accuracy, his are all game-day picks. Frankly, I'm more impressed with picking all the games of the conference season in advance of the season with a 70% accuracy. You better be careful there, Blue, or ESPN is going to be after you, like they were Ken Pomeroy and Kyle Whellliston. You up for a move to Connecticut? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadAdder Posted December 26, 2005 Share Posted December 26, 2005 I think you place too much faith in Centenary... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUIsbig Posted December 26, 2005 Share Posted December 26, 2005 Eagles have to show me something first. ORU does not defend home court. We drop two at home, two on the road. 12-4. Not sure who they will lose to, but my prediction is we will loose at home in overtime. Suttons OT win % is dismal. 1-8 at home i think? (TMH would know) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted December 26, 2005 Author Share Posted December 26, 2005 TMH - It's not me that has to worry about life in Connecticut, it's Jeff Sagarin - although I was one of the first paid employees of ESPN (but that's another story). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted December 26, 2005 Share Posted December 26, 2005 Talk about leaving one hanging, Blue - that's a story I don't think I've heard yet - you need to fill me in sometime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTerry Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 Does this mean that Valpo will win 15 in a row now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashVID Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 This is a down year for the mid-con... out of 31 conferences, they are ranked 29.. YIKES! The bottom is so horrific there is no way to cancel them out. The bottom 4 teams have 4 TOTAL D1 WINS against 30 losses. Side note... does anyone know why Chicago St. plays ALL their non-conf games away from home? ash =o) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 $$$$$$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 This is a down year for the mid-con... out of 31 conferences, they are ranked 29.. YIKES! ash =o) While I realize that the college basketball world revolves around RPI, and have for the most part quit tracking the other ranking systems, I take small comfort in the fact that Ken Pomeroy's ranking has the Mid-Con at 23 - still not good, but better than RPI. As of this AM, his RPI site has the Mid-Con ranking at #30. YIKES is right! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashVID Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 Yup and C-USA is #20... RPI now at least factors home vs away which is good. RPI is really the only thing that matters to the NCAA. I know a lot of people want point differential but it is not that easy. Lets say ORU is blowing out Centenary by 30 the entire game... Sutton clears the bench the last 5 minutes and the final margin is only 15. Let's say Valpo is losing at half to Centenary by 1. The game remains tight with Valpo ahead only 5 with 4 minutes left. Centenary goes cold and fouls to extend the game... Valpo makes all their FTs and the winning margin is 15. The computer would see both these games the exact same... ash =o) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stl VU Fan Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 While I realize that the college basketball world revolves around RPI, and have for the most part quit tracking the other ranking systems, I take small comfort in the fact that Ken Pomeroy's ranking has the Mid-Con at 23 - still not good, but better than RPI. As of this AM, his RPI site has the Mid-Con ranking at #30. YIKES is right! To a great degree, my world revolves around the Mid-Con, and I could care less about the rest of the NCAA. I find RPI interesting and worth paying some attention to for obvious reasons (March), but the pinnacle of the basketball season for me is the Mid-Con tourney. YMMV, of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted January 15, 2006 Author Share Posted January 15, 2006 Update on the pre-season Mid-Con predictions. After Saturday's games, we're 23 games into the Mid-Con season. Every team has at least one win, and at least one loss. The Sagarin pre-season selection described above has picked 19 of the 23 games correctly for 83%. Current prediction calls for ORU and Valpo to finish tied for first, with IUPUI third and UMKC a distant fourth. I still don't know what to make of UMKC... a huge road win at Valpo at huge road loss at SUU? Tonight, they blow a 22 point halftime lead - give up 60 points in the 2nd half - and hold on to beat Oakland by 2. I think they could be a tough draw in the tourney, but who knows what team will show up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valpower Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Side note... does anyone know why Chicago St. plays ALL their non-conf games away from home? Specifically, it is because they are building a new multi-million dollar convocation center which will be the team's new home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUTerry Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Does it seat 250? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 260. They're planning for growth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadAdder Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 For concerts it can accomodate about 300. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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