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ORU, Arkansas favorites - Tulsa World (5-29-2007)


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ORU, Arkansas favorites

by JOHN E. HOOVER World Sports Writer

5/29/2007

Tulsa World Link

Monday's NCAA Tournament bracket announcement affords us a chance to look into the future at the Wichita Regional and the Fayetteville Regional and see which teams have a good shot at coming out on top.

Fayetteville Regional breakdown

The Razorbacks are easily the favorite. Monday they were awarded one of eight national seeds. Arkansas clearly has the top team, particularly with how the pitching rotation of Nick Schmidt (complete game shutout), Jess Todd (17 strikeouts in eight innings) and Duke Welker (one run and eight Ks in seven innings) performed in the SEC Tournament. Also, senior Danny Hamblin replaced Norman product Ryan Lundquist as the Hog home run champ (57, including 22 this year).

Creighton is dangerous, with four players named first-team All-Missouri Valley. Sophomore 1B Darin Ruf (.377 batting average, 56 RBIs) was named Joe Carter MVC Player of the Year, while junior left hander Ben Macuso (10-2, 2.28) was named MVC pitcher of the year. The bullpen has two stars in Andy Masten (4-3, 1.74 ERA, 16 saves) and Pat Venditte (8-2, 1.83 ERA, 4 saves).

Oklahoma State has ridden one of college baseball's top overall bullpens and one of the nation's most prolific offenses all season, but has been cursed by inadequate starting pitching (which was reversed in the Big 12 Tournament). OSU has lost its last six games, but a lineup that includes Ty Wright (34-game hitting streak, .417 average), Tyler Mach (.410, 15 HRs, 76 RBIs) and Corey Brown (.345, 19 HRs, 65 RBIs) is capable of getting hot at any time.

Albany went 13-11 in the America East Conference and won its first ever postseason tournament by beating top-seed Binghamton 1-0. Closer Alexander Beaulieu got his 10th save, and Steve Wyland (team-high .379 average, 14 doubles, 44 RBIs) drove in the winning run a day after delivering a bases-clearing double in a ninth-inning rally in the semifinals. Tom Hill (.317) has 60 hits, including 22 doubles and six HRs.

The winner

Arkansas. Creighton has the talent, winning at Nebraska, at Kansas State and at Wichita State this season, and defeating the Shockers 10-9 in the MVC title game. Oklahoma State is good enough, but, on a serious losing streak, may be circling the drain emotionally. The home crowd can't hurt, but Oral Roberts and OSU both beat the Hogs in last year's Fayetteville Regional. Arkansas is better this year, though. Those pitchers make the Razorbacks good enough to win a regional, win a super regional and even make some noise in Omaha.

Wichita Regional breakdown

Some questioned whether Wichita State deserved a No. 1 seed because it lags behind some 2-seeds in various qualifying criteria, such as wins versus RPI top 100 teams, record over the last 15 games, etc. The Shockers are even 0-2 against ORU. But wins over Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton and Pepperdine are impressive, as is the pitching rotation of Aaron Shafer (7-2, 2.39 ERA), Rob Musgrave (9-2, 2.64) and Travis Banwart (9-5, 2.66) and closer Noah Krol (1-1, 1.50, 11 saves). But Anthony Capra (7-0, 1.57) might be the best of all, having allowed one earned run in 25 innings during four of his last five starts.

Arizona went 6-5 against the Pac-10's three other NCAA Teams, including a sweep of defending national champion Oregon State. The Wildcats -- the first UA team to win 40 games since 1989 -- were 15-9 in Pac-10 play, second in the league standings. Preston Guilmet (11-2, 1.78) was Pac-10 pitcher of the year after 133 strikeouts in 126 innings. Freshman closer Jason Stoffel (5-0, 2.11, three saves) has given up just one earned run in his last 15 appearances. Seven Wildcats have a .300 average or better, led by senior Bill Rhinehart (.362, 11 HRs).

Oral Roberts is as good as its ever been -- and with three aces, it may be even better. Chance Chapman (8-1, 1.23) was the Mid-Con Player of the Year and twice set the school strikeout record this season (17 against Arkansas, 19 against Centenary). Chapman has 121 strikeouts in just 88 innings. Jeremy Hefner (9-1, 2.53) is another strikeout king, punching out 105 in 81 -2/3 innings. And freshman Jerry Sullivan (5-0, 1.75) could ultimately be the best of them all. Only five starters are hitting better than .300, however.

New Orleans is one of three Sun Belt Conference teams in the field after finishing third in the league. The Privateers came out of the loser's bracket to win the league tournament and beat regular-season champ Louisiana-Lafayette 8-2 in the finals. New Orleans has hit 82 home runs this season and has five players in double digits, including 15 each from Johnny Giavotella (.373, 18 doubles, 60 RBIs) and Drew Anderson (15 doubles, 49 RBIs). However, the team ERA of 5.10 isn't good enough to get the team through a regional.

The winner

It's ORU. Arizona is certainly capable, with a .311 team batting average and the Pac-10's second-best ERA (3.87). The Shockers will have a distinct home-field advantage, but that didn't help in 10 losses at Eck Stadium this season, including 4-0 to ORU (a complete-game victory by Sullivan). Wichita State's pitching rotation may be one of the best in the country, but its lineup has been inconsistent. The Shockers haven't won a regional since 1996, which includes the last three in Wichita. Meanwhile, ORU has beaten Wichita State four of their last five meetings, including three of the last four at Eck. The Golden Eagles beat the Shockers twice in an '02 regional there, and are still riding last year's win at the Fayetteville Regional.

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John E. Hoover 581-8384

john.hoover@tulsaworld.com

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FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL

Teams: No. 1 Arkansas (41-19) vs. No. 4. Albany (29-27), No. 2 Creighton (44-14) vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State (38-19).

Tickets: $70 all session, call (800) 982-HOGS. Individual game tickets are $15 and are only available on game day.

WICHITA REGIONAL

Teams: No. 1 Wichita State (49-19) vs. No. 4 New Orleans (37-24), No. 2 Arizona (40-15) vs. No. 3 Oral Roberts (40-15)

Tickets: $85, $75, $60, $55, $50 all-session, $14, $12, $10, $9, $8 individual game; log on to www.goshockers.com

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Only five starters are hitting better than .300, however.

Will hitting be the Achilles heel of this team?   They've struggled since early in the season.  At first Walton was saying it was because weather had hampered practice before the season started.  But it has continued to plague them a bit, even after weather and game experience should have gotten the bats coming around (pun). 

Even so, I think a number of players are showing marked improvement.  Duffy has been on a tear much of the season - I love this guy.  Chad was in a terrible slump - I was almost afraid to watch when he was at the plate, I felt so bad for him.  But all of a sudden, in the Mid-Con Tournament, the guy becomes a powerhouse, and ends up tournament MVP.  Genao, Jake, Warfle, Pearson, Minessale have all been looking strong late in the season. 

So, I think these guys are primed for the upset (if you want to call it that) in Wichita.  I can't wait!

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