Who's In? Who's Out? - CollegeBaseballInsider.com

[Bogus Smith]

Field of dreamers

It's not getting any easier as the bubble gets bigger

By Sean Ryan and Phil Stanton

One day to go.

As we pore over stats and records, RPIs and strength of schedule and common opponents and stretch runs, we feel the NCAA again has its hands full.

This year of Maydness (May Madness) could be the year that the NCAA diversifies as it's possible that (gasp!) three teams from both the Big East and Big 10 could make the field. Don't fret West Coast, four from the Big West and three from the West Coast Conference could make up for a rather light year from the Pac-10.

A more complete look will follow by tomorrow morning, but as of about 10:30 p.m. Eastern, this is our Field of 64. Keep in mind that like the committee, we could change our minds at the last second. RPI information is courtesy of Boyd Nation at www.boydsworld.com. (HAPPY TEAMS IN BOLD).

America East (1) - Albany earned the automatic bid. Congrats to Great Danes coach Jon Mueller, who wrote a journal for CBI for two years.

ACC (8 ) - Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia will host, and we feel good about Clemson, NC State, Miami and Wake Forest, which played its way in with a run to the ACC title game.

                Bubble In -  Georgia Tech sneaks in as the eighth team with a RPI of 28, but we will look again after Wake Forest was left out last year with a RPI of 25. We think the Yellow Jackets' regular-season conference record is strong enough, plus the win over North Carolina in the tourney looms large. The Jackets threatened Virginia in the second game and lost to NC State by a run in the third.

Atlantic Sun (2) - Jacksonville gets the automatic bid.

                Bubble In - Stetson, which won the A-Sun by four games in a 41-19 season, gets the nod with a RPI of 36. Out of conference wins included LSU (2), Louisville (2) and Florida. A 3-6 finish, including the tourney could be a factor if the Hatters come up short.

Atlantic 10 (1) - Charlotte rolled through the tourney and picked up the automatic.

Big East (3) - Rutgers gets the automatic, and that leaves us in a quandary - can three from the Big East make it.

                Bubble In - Louisville has a RPI of 44, and St. John's is at 52. The Red Storm tied with Rutgers for the regular-season title and won two of three against the Cardinals. The Cardinals made it to the tourney final, but there aren't a ton of eye-popping wins out of conference. The Red Storm beat Rutgers two out of three and also has a win over Rice.

                Bubble Out - South Florida posted a RPI of 55 but didn't make enough noise in the regular season conference race or in the tourney.

Big South (1) - Regular-season champ Coastal Carolina won the tourney and will host a regional.

                Bubble Out - Liberty made another run in the tourney and has a RPI of 61. The Flames beat some NCAA participants - Albany (3), VCU, East Carolina (1 of 3) and Monmouth (1 of 3). And if the committee goes inside the numbers, they'll find four losses to Coastal Carolina by a total of eight runs (including one game that was a three-run loss in the 12th inning). Liberty took a late-season trip to Arizona and was ripped two games before losing a one-run affair in extra innings. The Flames deserve a ton of credit. We think they fall just short.

Big Ten (2) - Ohio State stole the automatic bid. Can two more make it?

                Bubble In -  Michigan sneaks in with a RPI of 45. Good wins include Mississippi State and Oklahoma. Tight losses to East Carolina (two one-runners) and San Diego (one-runner). Two and out in the Big Ten tourney scares us.

                Bubble Out - Minnesota reached the Big 10 final, but with a RPI of 54, we think the Golden Gophers just miss out. It's unfortunate Minnesota and Michigan were cancelled due to weather. Big wins include Ole Miss (1 of 2), Arkansas (1 of 2) and Pepperdine (1 of 3). 

Big 12 (7) - In are regional hosts Texas, Texas A&M and Missouri. Baylor pushes its way in, and we think Oklahoma also played its way in after a solid weekend in Oklahoma City (wins over Oklahoma State and Missouri).

                Bubble In - Nebraska gets in with a RPI of 30 and by virtue of finishing fourth in the regular season. Oklahoma State is one of the most difficult picks on the board. The Cowboys finished third in the regular season, but the RPI has been far from impressive all season. Then, OSU went out and went 0-3 over the weekend in the tourney, seeing its RPI drop to 51. We think they sneak in - barely.

                Bubble Out - Kansas State is knocking with a RPI of 35, but we think that by virtue of the upsets around the country, the Wildcats fall short. An eighth-place finish in the Big 12 regular season (6-15 against the other teams mentioned above) hurts.

Big West (4) - UC Riverside gets the automatic, and what a season for the Highlanders. Long Beach State was named a regional host. We also like UC Irvine and Cal State Fullerton to make this a banner year for the Big West.

CAA (1) - VCU is heading to the tourney for the fourth time in six years - Paul Keyes continues to push all the right buttons come tourney time. John Leonard was huge in the tourney, especially considering he was plugged in the ribs by a pitch early in the tourney and was questionable to return.

Conference USA (3) - Rice will host yet another regional, and East Carolina and Southern Miss are looking at No. 2 seeds. The question is whether the nation's fifth-best conference can get one more in a year when no team really emerged.

                Bubble Out - Memphis appears to fall just short, with a RPI of 51. The Tigers beat Rice to force a final game in their bracket in the C-USA tourney and had three wins over Southern Miss. They also have wins over Missouri and Clemson (1 of 3) and two close losses to Mississippi State. 

Horizon (1) - Illinois-Chicago gets the automatic bid for the third time in five years.

Ivy (1) - It's Brown - which is heading to its first NCAA tourney after beating Penn in two games in the Ivy League championship.

Metro Atlantic (1) - Le Moyne is headed back to the NCAA tourney after capturing the tourney title.

Mid-American (1) - Kent State is back in the NCAA tourney after winning the tourney. Congrats go to first baseman Brad Winter, who has written a journal for CBI this season, and coach Scott Stricklin for working with CBI to get the journal done.

Mid-Continent (1) - This is not a broken record - Oral Roberts is the conference champ. OK, maybe it is a broken record since it's been 10 straight years for the Golden Eagles.

MEAC (1) - Bethune-Cookman is headed to yet another NCAA tourney and is fully capable of making some noise, as it has in coach Mervyl Melendez's previous eight seasons.

Missouri Valley (2) - Creighton won the tourney, but Wichita State will host a regional.

                Bubble Out - Evansville needed to make more noise in the conference tourney to improve a RPI of 60. The Aces appear to fall just short.

Mountain West (1) - TCU won the MWC for the second straight year since joining.

Northeast (1) - It's Monmouth in a bit of a surprise, although we did hint that we thought the Hawks had a good shot.

Ohio Valley (1) - Austin Peay won the OVC for the third time and handed coach Gary McClure his 600th career win to boot.

Pac-10 (4) - Arizona State will be hosting, and Arizona also is good to go. From there, it gets kind of hazy.

                Bubble In - UCLA faded a bit down the stretch, but its third-place finish in the league should be good enough. Defending champ Oregon State picked up two wins over the Bruins over the weekend, and with a RPI of 34, we think the Beavers slide in. Road tournament wins over Texas A&M (1 of 2), Missouri and Arizona State (in Surprise) - as well as going 19-6 on the road and 28-3 out of conference - should be good enough.

                Bubble Out - California finished ahead of Oregon State but dropped 2 of 3 to the Beavers. The Golden Bears took 2 of 3 from Arizona State and also picked up series wins against UC Irvine and Oral Roberts out of conference. The RPI of 62 is going to be tough to overcome.

Patriot League (1) - Lafayette will tune up for the NCAA tourney with a doubleheader against Brown this Thursday.

SEC (5) - Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Arkansas and Ole Miss will host Regionals, and Mississippi State is good to go. What's next here? This is where the committee will either let the rich get richer, or look to nontraditional baseball conferences.

                Bubble Out - Tennessee will be one of the last teams out. The Vols have a RPI of 56 and no impressive out-of-conference wins.  Alabama has a RPI of 63 and beat Tennessee twice. Out of conference the Tide took 1 of 3 at home against Nebraska, and that's about it. We'll put Auburn on the bubble by virtue of a RPI of 46, but the Tigers finished last in the league with a 10-20 mark. We can't imagine them getting in. Kentucky has a RPI of 57 but just missed the SEC tourney. We're not big fans of teams that miss their conference tourney making the big tourney, so we'll leave the Wildcats out.

Southern (3) - Uh-oh, what did the Wofford uprising do to the conference? We feel pretty good about regular-season champ College of Charleston, which went 1 for 3 against Charlotte and beat Clemson. The Cougars lost two one-runners to Coastal Carolina and finished with a RPI of 40.

                Bubble In - Western Carolina gets a cautious nod after going two and screw in the Southern Conference tourney. The Catamounts went 3-1 against Georgia Tech (1-0), NC State (1-0) and Clemson (1-1) and also picked up two wins over Big Ten champ Ohio State. 

Southland (1) - Sam Houston State nipped Texas State to claim the Southland crown.

SWAC (1) - Prairie View edged Southern 8-7 to win its second straight SWAC title.

Sun Belt (2) - Another upset as Tom Walter and New Orleans pull out the tourney title. Louisiana-Lafayette lost a shot to host a Regional but is safe for a No. 2 seed, or possibly a No. 1 at another Regional.

                Bubble Out - Troy is another of the toughest calls in the tourney. Credit the Trojans for their nonconference schedule, which included wins over Arkansas (1 of 3), Alabama (1) Southern Miss (1), Michigan (1 of 2) and Coastal Carolina (2 of 3). Troy also lost two to Mississippi State in a tourney. This one makes us cringe, because it's a team that did about all it could except for struggle down the stretch a bit in conference.

West Coast (2) - San Diego takes the title with a 13-1 win over Gonzaga. Pepperdine finished in third but boasts a RPI of 38, and we think the Waves are a good fit.

                Bubble Out - Gonzaga finished second and forced San Diego to three games. The Bulldogs actually split six games with the Toreros and won their series with Pepperdine. A win over Oregon State was nice, and Gonzaga played a great early-season schedule. On paper, we might put them in. It maybe shouldn't be this way, but a RPI of 70 could be the deal-breaker, even though we think this is where the NCAA could diversify.

WAC (1) - Fresno State took home the tourney title and is heading back to the NCAA Field of 64.

Last five in: Oregon State, Western Carolina, Louisville, St. John's, Oklahoma State.

Last five out: Tennessee, Minnesota, Kansas State, Memphis, Troy.