NCAA Projections

[Bogus Smith]

http://collegebaseball.rivals.com/conte ... CID=675599

Rivals.com shows us as a #3 seed in the Austin regional.  Outside of last year, I can't remember the last time that Texas didn't come out of their home regional.  It would be tough to make that happen two years in a row, if this comes to pass.

[TrueBlue82]

This is all conjecture, of course, but I would doubt that we'll be placed in a regional with a Top 8 national seed.  I would project that we would be a high #4 seed or a low #3 seed, which would mean that (all things considered), we should be in a regional with a high #2 seed and a lower #1 seed.  Normally, they don't get this precise in the baseball tournament, since they try to "regionalize" the teams, but with the prospect of Austin, Fayetteville, Wichita, Houston, Lafayette, Fort Worth and Columbia (Mizzou) all as potential hosts, the NCAA would have plenty of regional possibilities to send ORU - and a little more flexibility to try to balance out the brackets.  That said, I don't think we will be assigned to Austin or Houston - which would be fine with me!

[ORUJason]

I'm not sure about the quality of these projections. 

Of course you never know, but I wouldn't think that the NCAA would send OSU to Louisiana and OU to California when there would probably be much closer regional locations which could improve attendance.

But I would be pleased with these projections if you replaced Minnesota with ORU as the 3rd seed in the Arkansas regional.  We would have a 3-1 record vs. the teams in the that regional (Arkansas, Wichita State, Lemoyne), which would feel a lot like last year.

[Bogus Smith]

This comes from Baseball America today.  It would be interesting if this would come to pass.  Not only would it be deja vu, but it would be interesting to see how we played against OSU since we didn't get a chance to play this season and no one has seen each other's pitching.  We can only wish that our regional is this close to home again.  I wonder if we could get a better road crowd this year....

Projected Field Of 64: May 22

By Aaron Fitt - Baseball America

May 22, 2007

THE PROJECTED 64-TEAM FIELD

Here's how Baseball America sees the 64-team NCAA tournament field shaking out as conference tournaments begin for most of the country. National seeds indicated in parentheses.

Nashvile, Tenn.          Columbia, Mo.        Tempe, Ariz.                  Wichita, Kan.

1. (1) Vanderbilt^*    1. Missouri^          1. (5) Arizona State^*    1. Wichita State^*

2. Miami                    2. Creighton          2. UC Riverside*            2. Michigan*

3. Western Carolina    3. Alabama            3. Minnesota                  3. Nebraska

4. Austin Peay State* 4. Illinois-Chicago* 4. Gonzaga                    4. California

Houston                    Lafayette, La.                  Chapel Hill, N.C.              Myrtle Beach,S.C.

1. (2) Rice^*            1. Louisiana-Lafayette^*  1. (6) North Carolina^    1. Coastal Carolina^*

2. Texas A&M            2. Mississippi State          2. College of Charleston* 2. Clemson

3. Rutgers                3. Georgia Tech                3. East Carolina              3. UNC Wilmington*

4. Prairie View A&M* 4. Lamar*                        4. Quinnipiac*                4. Brown*

Austin, Texas            Fayetteville, Ark.              San Diego                      Irvine, Calif.

1. (3) Texas^*          1. Arkansas^                    1. (7) San Diego^*        1. UC Irvine^

2. Texas Christian*    2. Oklahoma State            2. Long Beach State        2. Arizona

3. Cal State Fullerton 3. Oral Roberts*            3. UCLA                          3. Pepperdine

4. Binghamton*        4. Central Michigan*        4. Fresno State*              4. Brigham Young

Tallahassee, Fla.          Oxford, Miss.                  Columbia, S.C.                Charlottesville, Va.

1. (4) Florida State^*  1. Mississippi^              1. (8 ) South Carolina^      1. Virginia^

2. Stetson*                  2. Southern Mississippi    2. North Carolina State    2. St. John's*

3. Louisville                  3. Wake Forest              3. Charlotte*                    3. Tennessee

4. Bethune- Cookman*  4. Troy                          4. Lafayette*                    4. Le Moyne*

^ Host

* Automatic Bid

? These projections are based on our expectations for conference tournaments. Florida was omitted from the field of 64 because the Gators must win two games in the Southeastern Conference tournament just to finish at .500 and be eligible for an at-large berth. That's a tall order. In most cases, we assumed the favorites would win their conference tournaments, but we're going out on a limb and predicting Lamar (Southland), UNC Wilmington (Colonial) and Central Michigan (Mid-American) will pull off minor upsets.

? The Big West does not have a tournament, but we are predicting UC Irvine to take its series from UC Riverside this weekend and finish in second place in the conference, one game behind the Highlanders. We also think Cal State Fullerton will win its series against Long Beach State. If that happens, the Anteaters will get a No. 1 seed and host a regional, pushing Long Beach State to a No. 2. UC Riverside also submitted a bid to host, but Irvine or Long Beach seems a more likely destination--even if the Highlanders win the conference championship--because of superior facilities and stronger RPIs. We'll give the nod to UCI, which will have beaten UCR, LBSU and CSF in head-to-head series.

? The top four Big West teams get bids, and the Pacific-10 conference also gets four thanks to California's late run. The Golden Bears are one of the last teams in thanks to a series win against Arizona State two weeks ago and a sweep of Southern California this past weekend. Other at-large teams squeaking in include Wake Forest, the eighth-place team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a high RPI and key series victory against Virginia; Brigham Young, finishing strong out of the Mountain West Conference with 13 victories in its last 15 games; Troy, which played a strong non-conference schedule; and Gonzaga, with series victories against Pepperdine and San Diego.

? Conference tournaments can still change the complexion of the field, and there are some strong No. 3 seeds that could move up. We are predicting College of Charleston runs through the Southern Conference tournament in Charleston and earns a No. 2, but Western Carolina could be a two if it can pull off that run. East Carolina, Charlotte and Pepperdine are all ready to step into No. 2 seeds if one of the teams ahead of them falters. We gave Southern Mississippi the edge over the Pirates because the Golden Eagles finished stronger and won the head-to-head series against ECU, but those teams could flip-flop if the Pirates can make some noise in the Conference USA tournament in their own ballpark.

? South Carolina's grip on the final national seed is tenuous, and Coastal Carolina, Virginia, Missouri or Arkansas could snatch it away with strong conference tournament performances. Of course, Arkansas has lost three straight weekend series and could also lose its host site with a bad week. If that happens, Texas Christian or St. John's could get a regional.

[ORUTex]

If that happens, Texas Christian or St. John's could get a regional.

I would love a chance for a rematch at TCU.

[Bogus Smith]

I would love a chance for a rematch at TCU.

Yes, but I would not like to meet up with TCU at Austin like we did three years ago.  Not only does Texas have a stranglehold on the umpires when they play at home, but TCU has one of the best arms in the country.  We would be a #3 seed (no matter where we end up) and TCU would be our first opponent in most likelihood.