Projected NCAA Field of 64

[Bogus Smith]

We're getting a little bit of love from the Baseball America guys here.  Although I wouldn't like this placement, I'll bet that there will be a big contingent of parents from the West that show up for this Regional if it comes to fruition...

Projected NCAA Field of 64

By Aaron Fitt

May 3, 2007

THE PROJECTED 64-TEAM FIELD

Here's how Baseball America sees the 64-team NCAA tournament field shaking out. National seeds indicated in parentheses.

Nashville, Tenn.        Corvallis, Ore.              Fayetteville, Ark.            Ann Arbor, Mich.

1. (1) Vanderbilt^*    1. Oregon State^        1. (5) Arkansas^          1. San Diego*

2. Louisville*              2. UC Riverside            2. Missouri                    2. Michigan^*

3. Georgia Tech          3. Creighton                3. Troy*                        3. Okla. State

4. Mt. St. Mary's        4. Fresno State*          4. Memphis                  4. Illinois-Chicago*

Houston                    College Station, Texas  Tempe, Ariz.                  Long Beach, Calif.

1. (2) Rice^*            1. Texas A&M^              1. (6) Arizona State^*  1. Long Beach State^*

2. Arizona                  2. Texas Christian*        2. Pepperdine                2. UCLA

3. Cal State Fullerton  3. St. John's                3. Oklahoma                  3. Oral Roberts*

4. Prairie View A&M*  4. Tennessee                4. Houston                    4. Manhattan*

Austin, Texas              Wichita, Kan.              Charlottesville, Va.        Myrtle Beach, S.C.

1. (3) Texas^*            1. Wichita State*^      1. (7) Virginia^            1. Coastal Carolina^*

2. UC Irvine                2. Minnesota                2. East Carolina            2. Mississippi State

3. Evansville              3. Nebraska                3. Central Michigan*      3. North Carolina State

4. Lamar*                  4. Brown*                  4. Old Dominion*          4. Lafayette*

Tallahassee, Fla.          Oxford, Miss.                Chapel Hill,N.C.                Columbia, S.C.

1. (4) Florida State^*  1. Mississippi^            1. (8 ) North Carolina^      1. South Carolina^

2. Stetson*                2. Louisiana-Lafayette* 2. College of Charleston*  2. Clemson

3. Alabama                3. Miami                      3. Charlotte*                    3. Western Carolina

4. Jacksonville State*  4. Stony Brook*          4. Winthrop                      4. Bethune-Cookman*

^Host

* Automatic bid.

NOTES

? Texas Christian is planning to submit a large bid to host a regional, and the Horned Frogs will be the first team rewarded with a host site should one of the weaker hosts (Texas A&M, Oregon State, Long Beach State, Michigan, Coastal Carolina) stumble down the stretch. TCU would likely have to host as a No. 2 seed because of its mediocre 39 Ratings Percentage Index, which owes much to five wins against No. 293 Air Force. TCU was fortunate that one of its games against the Falcons was snowed out, but the Frogs would have been better off if the entire weekend had been canceled.

? San Diego could still put in a bid to host a regional at San Diego State, but it is still up in the air whether the two sides can come together and make that happen before the deadline to submit bids. If Long Beach State slides in the Big West, USD could stay on the West Coast as the No. 1 seed at a Long Beach regional. Or San Diego could be the top seed at another Big West site or maybe Oregon State. For now, let's ship them to Michigan.

? Cal State Fullerton likely fumbled its chance to host a regional this weekend when the Titans were swept at UC Riverside. That big weekend dropped Fullerton from a projected No. 1 seed to a No. 3 thanks to its 7-5 Big West record, good enough for a tie for fourth place. If indeed the Titans fail to win the conference, it could help the Big West secure four bids for the first time since 1996, because CSF is essentially a lock for an at-large big thanks to its strong RPI and national reputation. Long Beach is in the same boat, but UC Riverside and UC Irvine don't have quite as much national clout; a strong finish in the conference will help both teams earn No. 2 seeds. The Dirtbags earn the conference's lone No. 1 seed and host site because of an RPI in the top five and a good Big West record.

? Another reason the Big West looks like a good bet to earn four berths is that the Pacific-10 Conference figures to only get four, and the West Coast Conference is likely to get two, rather than repeating last year's three-bid performance. Gonzaga is a bubble team with an outside shot, but its RPI won't do it any favors. In the Pac-10, there is no clear NCAA tournament team after Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona. Southern California has a strong RPI but a lousy record in the league and a mediocre overall mark. There's still time for a team like California (which helped itself by taking a series from the Sun Devils this past weekend), Washington or maybe the Trojans to get hot and make a run, but don't count on it.

? The Missouri Valley Conference and the Big South benefit from the Southeastern Conference's top-heavy power structure. The SEC only has five teams that are locks for bids (Vanderbilt, Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State), and it seems unlikely the conference gets eight or nine bids again like it has the past few years. Count on seven, with Tennessee and Alabama penciled in very lightly thanks to their manageable schedules the rest of the way. As a result, the MVC secures a third bid, and the Big South gets a second. North Carolina benefits from South Carolina's second-half swoon, seizing the final national seed, and the third for the Atlantic Coast Conference.