Will Eagles land close to home? - Tulsa World (3-12-2007)

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Will Eagles land close to home?

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By MIKE BROWN World Sports Writer

3/11/2007

Where is the Oral Roberts basketball team headed in the NCAA Tournament?

Senior forward Caleb Green is hoping for the best

"It'd be nice to get a good seed and a nice location for the fans -- the closest vicinity for the fans to travel," Green said.

Travel-wise, the Golden Eagles can't do better than New Orleans, Chicago or Lexington, Ky., the nearest first-round sites.

Seedings-wise, the Eagles are likely to at least avoid another No. 16 seed like last year's when pairings for the 2007 tournament are unveiled Sunday.

As of Saturday, the best-known Internet projections had ORU higher than 16th. Four of the five had the Eagles 14th or higher.

"We're a 14 seed in most projections and I think that's where we would be," said head coach Scott Sutton.

But Sutton thinks ORU's difficult nonconference schedule, Nov. 15 upset of Kansas and 17-3 record since Dec. 29 "would give us a shot to be a 13 seed."

The Selection Show to announce pairings, sites and times for the 65-team tournament tips off at 5 p.m. on KOTV channel 6. ORU fans are invited to a watch party with the Eagles, starting at 4 p.m. in the Mabee Center.

ORU punched its ticket with a 71-67 win over Oakland (Mich.) in the Mid-Continent Conference final last Tuesday.

CollegeRPI.com publisher Jerry Palm sees ORU as "closer to a 15 than a 13. I don't see them as a 13. I see them more as a 14 and a possible 15."

According to RPI numbers on Palm's Web site, the Eagles are on the cusp between a 14 and 15 seed.

Nine automatic qualifiers have RPI ratings lower than ORU, which was ranked No. 89 Saturday, according to CollegeRPI.com.

The Golden Eagles' seeding status likely improved late Saturday when Miami, Ohio, beat Akron 53-52 in the Mid-Ameri can Conference championship game. Akron was likely headed for a higher NCAA seed than ORU. But Miami, which now receives the league's automatic bid, has an RPI 13 spots lower than ORU, according to CollegeRPI.com.

It wouldn't hurt ORU's seeding chances Texas A&M-Corpus Christi were to lose Sunday's Southland Conference final (1 p.m., ESPN2). That would send a lower RPI team in place of the Islanders and theoretically move up ORU.

Why all the concern over seedings? Because a higher seed might give an underdog team like ORU its best chance of advancing deep in the tournament. A lower seed might end the trip almost before it starts.

That's what happened last year. ORU faced almost insurmountable odds against top-seeded Memphis in the Oakland Regional and lost 94-78.

Theoretically, the worst qualifiers receive the 16th and 15th seeds and are paired against the best teams in the field.

No 16th seed has won a first- round game since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and only four 15th seeds have -- they're 4-164 in the first round. Compare that to the first-round records of 14th seeds (17-71) and 13th seeds (21-67).

"If you play one of the top five, six or seven teams in the country, it's going to be nearly impossible to win. But once you get away from the top five or six, there's not as much difference between the rest of the teams, and (upsets) happen every year," Sutton said.

A 14th seed (Northwestern State in Louisiana) knocked off third-seeded Iowa in the Atlanta Regional last year and 13th-seeded Bradley upset Kansas in the Oakland Regional and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.

Mike Brown 581-8390

mike.brown@tulsaworld.com