Mid-Con Non-Conference and the RPI

[TrueBlue82]

After reviewing the Mid-Con non-conference schedules, I am concerned that the Mid-Con's RPI troubles will be as bad, or worse, than last year. The key to improvement is significant non-conference wins, and unless the lower echelon teams are vastly improved (which I don't believe), we are likely to have 7 of the 9 teams at an RPI of 200+ when the conference schedule begins in late December. And, once conference play begins, it is very difficult to raise the rankings unless former opponents fare exceptionally well in their conference play.

Unfortunately, I just don't see a lot of "winnable" games on the Mid-Con schedules. For example, using the collegehoopsnet rankings as a guide. the Mid-Con plays 50 games against Top 150 opponents in the pre-conference schedule. However, only nine of those games are at home, 30 on the road and 11 at neutral sites. And, although those nine home games present golden opportunities, three of them will be hosted by Centenary - the league's doormat - and I don't believe the Gents have much of a chance to break through.

Of the total 99 non-conference games, only 32 are at home - and 10 of those are against non-Division I opponents. The conference can't even attract BAD teams into their home courts, as they will host 11 games against teams ranked 250+, and hit the road for 19 games against similar competition. This likely means a losing record against poor teams... and a downgraded RPI.

Finally, it would be ideal if the schedule was loaded with teams in the 101-200 range, as these should be "winnable" for teams in our conference, improving our overall RPI. However, the schedule is packed with Top 100 teams (35) and 200+ teams (30), and only 24 games against the 101-200 range (with only 3 of these at home!)

Another notable fact - Chicago State will host NO non-conference games (nine on the road and two neutral) - their home opener is with ORU on January 2 (in front of less than 500 fans, I'm sure).

By the way, how did Western Illinois swing a home gig with Indiana???

In total, I expect the non-conference record against D-I opponents to be a dismal 26-63, with 30 wins an outside possibility. All this goes to prove that it will be nearly impossible for the Mid-Con to send two teams to the NCAA, unless both have an impressive non-conference record, finish 16-0, 15-1 or 14-2 in conference, with losses only to each other - and meet in the conference tourney championship. And, even then, it will require some help from other teams. Although I have hope, I just don't see the Mid-Con digging itself out of its RPI hole this season.

[TrueBlue82]

Not a good debut for the Mid-Con. Oakland loses 90-73 to Albany on a neutral court in Florida. In the initial Sagarin rating, Albany was ranked 269 and Oakland 182, although some pre-season publications had Albany as high as 150. This was one of those theoretically "winnable" games that could've boosted the conference RPI. A 17-point loss does just the opposite.

I think my 30 win prediction for the Mid-Con may be liberal...

[TrueBlue82]

Now that the non-conference season is all but over, it's time for a recap. The 26 Mid-Con Division I wins predicted above was an overstatement, as Mid-Con teams have picked up only 21 wins to date, and by the end of the week, should win #22 when Valpo beats "powerful" Longwood at home. If there was a Division I-AA in basketball, the Mid-Con would be in it. Frankly, the term "mid-major" is a stretch. The Mid-Con is an embarrassment, and without ORU and Valpo, it would be a cesspool.

So, what has the Mid-Con earned by upgrading their schedules this season? $$$ - and only $$$. No respect, no RPI value, no wins. In fact, the Sagarin rating for the Mid-Con as a whole has fallen 2 full points from last year, and is the lowest in five years. The league is down this year, or at least hasn't proven itself against other conference foes. It's hard to imagine that it could fall any further.

Closer to home - ORU definitely stepped up their schedule this year, but was unsuccessful in taking advantage of the opportunity. If the Eagles win the tourney in March, this will all be forgotten, except for a potential drop in NCAA seeding, which may (or may not) impact the chance for a first-round win. However, the REAL question is yet to be answered... what is the morale and psyche on a 5-7 team, that SHOULD run through the Mid-Con, with no worse than last year's 13-3 record, earn a 1 or 2 seed, and enter the tourney as prohibitive favorites (along with Valpo)? Are they beaten down and discouraged... or are they hungry?

These next two games will be HUGE. Chicago State is an awful environment to play in - against a team playing its first home game - and the altitude at Southern Utah will test an already road-weary team. The Mid-Con schedule makers did no favors to the Eagles. How will this team react? Add in next week's road game at Valpo, and many questions will be answered in the next ten days.

I really do dislike the Mid-Con. Outside of Valpo and ORU, it is pitiful. But until we dominate the league for a few years, we have nothing to say. The new season starts Monday night!

[ORUTerry]

The only thing that matters now is the Mid-Con title and the seeding that goes with it. I agree that the next two games are important and will us a lot about this team. The playing conditions at Chicago State are unique but every team in the league has to face it. What does it say about a program that does not schedule ONE home game in non-conference play?

Expect to see zone defense for the rest of the season....

[tmh8286]

Season-end RPI the last seven seasons and current RPI:

1999 - 144

2000 - 258

2001 - 258 (hard to believe 2 yrs with the same RPI but I checked it twice)

2002 - 166

2003 - 170

2004 - 157

2005 - 92

2006 - 162 current