NCAA D1 Baseball Regional Projections 2022

[ORUJason]

Obviously ORU has to take care of business tomorrow in order to play in an NCAA regional.  However, I came across the D1baseball.com field of 64 projection.

They project ORU in the Austin regional playing 1-seed Texas in the first round.  The other two teams are Arkansas as the 2-seed and Arizona as the 3-seed.  

That would be a tough regional indeed.
 

 

[Texasgrip]

Horse. Cart.

[#1 Fan]

Regional host sites selection announcement – The host sites for the 2022 NCAA Division I Baseball Championship will be announced at 8:30 p.m. EDT on Sunday, May 29 via ESPN bottom lines and NCAA Baseball social media sites.

NCAA Division I Baseball Championship selection show – The 64 teams and pairings for the 2022 NCAA Division I Baseball Championship will be announced during the selection show that will air at noon EDT, Monday, May 30 on ESPN2.

Here is BA projections 30 minutes ago having ORU as 4 seed in the Stillwater regional. 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-ncaa-baseball-tournament-projected-field-of-64/

[ORUTex]

INDIANAPOLIS — The NCAA Division I Baseball Committee announced the 16 regional sites for the 75th annual NCAA Division I Baseball Championship.

The 16 regional sites, with host institutions and records are as follows:

• Auburn, Alabama – Auburn (37-19)
• Austin, Texas – Texas (42-18) *through games of 5/28
• Blacksburg, Virginia – Virginia Tech (41-12)
• Chapel Hill, North Carolina – North Carolina (38-19)
• College Park, Maryland – Maryland (45-12)
• College Station, Texas – Texas A&M (37-18)
• Coral Gables, Florida – Miami (FL) (39-18)
• Corvallis, Oregon – Oregon State (44-14) *through games of 5/28
• Gainesville, Florida – Florida (39-22)
• Greenville, North Carolina – East Carolina (42-18)
• Hattiesburg, Mississippi – Southern Mississippi (43-16)
• Knoxville, Tennessee – Tennessee (53-7)
• Louisville, Kentucky – Louisville (38-18-1)
• Stanford, California – Stanford (40-14) *through games of 5/28
• Statesboro, Georgia – Georgia Southern (40-18)
• Stillwater, Oklahoma – Oklahoma State (39-20)

https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2022-05-29/16-regional-sites-selected-2022-ncaa-division-i-baseball-championship

[theeagleman5]

Louisiana vs. TCU and ORU vs. Texas A&M....thats not too bad....could have been a lot worse...Golden Eagles should be able to compete...

[TrueBlue82]

A few random thoughts on the tourney and selection show...

+ It seems a bit unfair that ORU gets matched up with the #5 overall seed (when I believe that ORU is at least in the top third of the #4 seeds), but I do understand that keeping teams within their region takes priority.  I would've preferred Stillwater, so more Tulsa-based fans could attend, but Mo State isn't much further down the road, and will probably bring more fans to Stillwater that ORU would have.

+ Texas A+M - Although they are the #5 seed, I do believe that we can be competitive against A+M on Friday.  My biggest concern is that they have two "mashers" with 14 and 17 home runs, but their overall batting average is only .288.  If we can minimize the number of baserunners, we should be able to weather a blast or two.  Pitching wise, they really don't have a knockout "ace".  Their two top starters have ERA's of 4.22 and 5.64 and average around 1 K per inning, which is respectable, but not overpowering.  Their primary Friday night starter is 5-2 on the season, but in his most recent four starts he hasn't lasted beyond 4.2 innings, and his ERA for those four games is 8.81 (amazingly, A+M won each of those four games).  Defensively, they average just over one error per game (ORU averages 0.80 per game), and A+M recorded FIVE errors in their third round game against Alabama in the SEC tourney, so they are prone to booting the ball.  And, while the coaching staff will try to play this down, the team will naturally be looking ahead to a second round matchup with TCU - so this has "trap game" written all over it.

+ ORU finished 7-7 against the tournament field this season, which is VERY respectable.  I would be surprised if any #4 seed has a better record against the 63 other teams in the tourney.  This also means that 14 of 29 (nearly 50%) of ORU's non-conference schedule was played against tourney participants, which says some really good things about ORU's strength of schedule.

+ I was initially disappointed that the ORU watch party wasn't shown during the broadcast (whether this was ESPN's choice or ORU's decision is another question), but after seeing many teams looking stupid sitting stone-faced while their name was called (waiting for their names to be called on their own delayed broadcast feed), I was actually a bit relieved that ORU was not shown. 

+ And the comedic highlight of the broadcast was at the midway point, when the commentator teased the audience as they went to commercial with "and these bubble teams await their fate - are they in or out?" The screen showed the logos of sixteen schools that had not yet been mentioned, including North Carolina State, Wofford, and.... NORTH DAKOTA STATE!  Yeah, I'm sure the Bizon faithful were on pins and needles as they waited to find out if their season had been extended.

 

[ORUJason]

The OSU regional is tough.  Arkansas is a very tough 2nd seed and Grand Canyon, the 3-seed is ranked 25th.  I think ORU has a slightly easier group of teams than that.  OU was placed in a very winnable bracket as the 2-seed.

[Otis 83]

Thanks for the analysis as usual @TrueBlue82

Waiting for the A&M faithful to show up on our board and be offended by your use of the plus sign rather than the ampersand.  They are a very sensitive lot.

On the "trap game" theme, there is an interesting story line in this regional.  Aggie head coach Jim Shlossnagle is in his first year at College Station after 18 years at TCU.  That's right.  This couldn't have been lost on the committee.  So, yes, A&M could be looking past ORU to the more "worthy" opponent but what is the mindset of the TCU squad?  While they love and respect their ex-skipper might they be of the mind to show him the grass isn't greener in Aggieland?  Plus among the alumni, those former Southwest Conference rivalries still stir the blood up I promise you.

Your third bullet point came to mind as I was watching the selection show.  I've actually been thinking about this for a few weeks.  The ORU athletic department did a great job scheduling for non-conference this year to give ORU so many games with teams that made the tournament.  We had a lot of the usual opponents but I thought Air Force, for example, was a nice pick up.  I saw Ole Miss (what the heck happened to them?) on some first 4 out lists as well.

I'm happier with our draw than some of the others that were predicted.  Stillwater will be tough.  OSU's got pitching depth that should serve them well if they get pushed.  Plus my best friend from high school is a Poke and I'd rather us both be happy in a week.  I wasn't super excited by the Austin regional either.

Speaking of regionals, I know the committee likes to keep the regionals...well regional but did you see what they did in Stanford?  The Binghamton Bearcats and the Texas State Bobcats crossing 3 and two time zones respectively.  That's a tough row to hoe and advantage to the Cardinal I suspect. 

I missed the NDSU flash on the show.  Great stuff for the bison burger crowd.

[ORU82]

The other interesting fact about this year's field of 64 is that the Big-10 appears to have become a 1 (one) bid league.  Only Michigan made the Big Dance.

[MrsSmith]

13 minutes ago, ORU82 said:

The other interesting fact about this year's field of 64 is that the Big-10 appears to have become a 1 (one) bid league.  Only Michigan made the Big Dance.

and Maryland.  Rutgers probably should have gotten in.

[Otis 83]

If only those pesky conferences would stay the same. 

[ORU82]

Correct, I forgot Maryland.