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TrueBlue82

Summit 2018-19 Notes

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TrueBlue82

Highlights and lowlights from the first weekend of Summit League action:

Purdue FW sweeps the Grand Forks/Fargo road trip - and on consecutive days, no less - with the finale in overtime.  Impressive!

SDSU drubs Western by 42 at home - followed by the 'Necks thumping Denver by 18 on the same court two days later.  It's SDSU's conference this year, with the rest of the League battling for 2-9.  Denver starts 0-2, as they haven't yet recovered from their recent thrashing at the hands of Gonzaga.  And all the empty seats at Western Hall, with 441 in attendance for hosting SDSU and 342 for Denver.  Yes, I know that it is Christmas week and the weather conditions were brutal, but this is still Chicago State-esque...

And the only other road win goes to ORU, giving fans hope for a change.  Win at home, split on the road is always a recipe for success - and winning the first of eight road games is a great start.

 

 

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theeagleman5

Let's not kid around....if E-Man plays like he did last night and Weaver and Obanor continue to show improvement.....this ORU team isn't THAT bad....we do need to hold home court and win at Mabee....and MAYBE a few students will show up for support if the Good Guys start winning....TheEagleman isn't going to say that ORU can play with SDSU  but we can surely hold our own with the other teams in the Summit League....:tb-blue:

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TrueBlue82

According to Ken Pomeroy's ratings, the Summit League breaks into three very distinct groups: SDSU and two pods of four teams.

SDSU 71

Pod 1: USD 193, PFW 197, OMA 202, NDSU 205

Pod 2: WIU 261, UND 285, DEN 287, ORU 292

The difference between the three groups is so significant and the Pods so tightly matched, that no team in Pod 2 should ever beat a team in Pod 1(even at home), each game between teams within a Pod should be won by the home team, and SDSU should go undefeated (matching OT's prediction).

Of the seven games played so far, there were two "upsets" that didn't follow this formula - PFW's win at NDSU, and ORU's win at OMA - with ORU's win being more significant as a Pod 2 road team winning at a Pod 1.

Looking forward to this week, SDSU will play face its toughest stretch of the conference season, with road games at PFW and USD.  If their record sits at 3-0 on Sunday, they will be well on their way to a 16-0 mark. 

Of the other five games on the schedule this week, four of them stay within the Pod, with USD at Denver the only Pod 1 vs. Pod 2 match-up.

ORU should be favored in each of its games this week, and MUST win both at home or all the momentum from the road upset at Omaha will be for naught.  While it would be a stretch given their past performance, an upper-division finish for ORU is still a possibility, but any loss this week would likely dash those hopes.

 

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ORUTerry

I agree that the next two home games are important for ORU. If nothing else, wins will provide momentum and confidence.  

I will bookmark your post to review later this season. I am skeptical of Ken Pomeroy’s methodology - but will be curious to see how wrong I am. I do agree that SDSU appears to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league. 

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TrueBlue82
On 12/31/2018 at 11:58 AM, TrueBlue82 said:

SDSU 71

Pod 1: USD 193, PFW 197, OMA 202, NDSU 205

Pod 2: WIU 261, UND 285, DEN 287, ORU 292

The difference between the three groups is so significant and the Pods so tightly matched, that no team in Pod 2 should ever beat a team in Pod 1(even at home), each game between teams within a Pod should be won by the home team, and SDSU should go undefeated (matching OT's prediction).

Now halfway through the Summit season, the "pod" statement highlighted above has proven to be of some merit.  Of the 36 games played, this prediction was correct in 75% of the games (27-9).  What has also proven true is that the "pods" are not as far apart as originally thought, in that no team in Pod 1 has exceeded expectations and no team in Pod 2 has fallen further backwards (see "parity").  I list the teams below in order of projected final seeding (assuming that the second half of the season plays out with the same trends as the first), along with their original projected record and the +/- so far.

SDSU     14-2     16-0     -1

PFW      11-5     11-5     E

OMA     11-5     11-5     E

USD        7-9     11-5     -2

NDSU     7-9     11-5     -2

ORU       7-9     3-13     +2

WIU       7-9     3-13     +2

UND     5-11    3-13     +1

DEN     3-13     3-13     E

Seeds 4-7 appear to be a dogfight.  Where ORU finishes in that range will depend a lot on when E-man is reinserted into the lineup - and how effective he is post-injury.

All in all , I'm pleased at the growth of this team from the beginning of the season.  If E-man hadn't gone down with an injury, I'm confident that we would be 6-2 right now, and who would have predicted THAT earlier in the year!

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