ORU May Be Best No. 16 Seed Ever - Story from The Oklahoman

[OKC Eagle]

I did not know John Rohde even knew how to spell ORU.

http://newsok.com/article/1785761/?template=sports/main

ORU may be best No. 16 seed ever

NCAA Tournament brackets normally are worth 1,000 words. According to my laptop's word count, this year's bracket was worth 761.

Expect a miracle: Oral Roberts is potentially the best No. 16 seed in tournament history. The Golden Eagles won the Mid-Continent title, and have yet to play to their full potential.

With some divine intervention, ORU could become the first No. 16 seed in tournament history to beat a No. 1 seed.

The Golden Eagles are making their first NCAA appearance since 1984 and play top-seeded Memphis.

The Tigers weren't in last year's NCAA Tournament, so the experience is new to many of them, too.

ESPN conference: Yes, Syracuse's march to the Big East Tournament title was impressive. But holy smoke, the selection committee overreacted.

The Orange went from being a bubble team to a No. 5 seed.

A No. 7 or No. 8 seed would have been far more appropriate.

Texas A&M also was a bubble team. If the Aggies had won the Big 12 Tournament and beaten Texas and Kansas in the process, they would have maybe jumped up to a No. 9 or No. 10.

ESPN's heavy influence toward the Big East is undeniable. The Big East and ESPN essentially have co-existed since their inceptions. Both were born in 1979.

By the way, Syracuse and Texas A&M play in the first round at Jacksonville.

Got a break: Four teams who got in who shouldn't have -- Air Force, Seton Hall, George Mason and Utah State.

Got the shaft: Four teams who didn't get in who should have -- Cincinnati, Missouri State, Creighton, Michigan.

Stuck in the middle: Four teams who should be bummed about not getting in, but not shocked -- Hofstra, Maryland, Florida State, Saint Joseph's.

Shocker: The most shocking selection was Air Force. Perhaps the Fly Boys were picked to help out with our recent heightened security at sporting events.

Misplaced: No. 2-seeded Tennessee, which has lost four of its last six, should have been no better than a No. 3.

Big 12 Tournament champ Kansas should have been a No. 3, not a No. 4.

Texas A&M deserved better than a No. 12, but at least the Aggies got their first invite since 1987.

As previously mentioned, Syracuse should have been a No. 7 or No. 8, not a No. 5.

Zig-Zags: No, Gonzaga should not have been better than a No. 3 seed.

The Zags could have easily lost six times this season playing in a poor league.

Bucking Bradley: Though Kansas bears no resemblance to last year's team, bracketeers will be tempted to pick Bradley over the Jayhawks given their first-round loss last year to Bucknell in the Ford Center.

Bradley fans could outnumber Kansas fans in Auburn Hills, Mich.

Located in Peoria, Ill., Bradley is 427 miles away. KU is 839 miles away.

Self-absorbed: If ORU and Kansas win their first two games, Jayhawks coach Bill Self will play his former team and former assistant coach Scott Sutton in the Oakland Regional semifinal. But that's a mighty big "IF."

Forewarned: North Carolina and Michigan State, who met in a national semifinal last year, could meet in the second round.

North Carolina and Illinois, who played for the national title last year, could meet in the Washington, D.C. Regional final.

Duke, which beat Texas by 31 points this season, could end up playing the Longhorns for a Final Four berth.

Texas and Texas A&M could play for a fourth time this season.

Oklahoma and Villanova could meet in a regional final. The last time that happened was 1988 and the Sooners advanced to the Final Four.

Kent State and Pittsburgh, located just 101 miles apart, meet in the first round in Auburn Hills, Mich.

ORU and Arkansas, located just 116 miles apart, could meet in the second round in Dallas.

Kansas and Bucknell could meet in the third round.

Upset specials: We're not predicting these will happen, but here are the best chances for first-round upsets:

1 vs. 16: Oral Roberts over Memphis

2 vs. 15: Winthrop over Tennessee

3 vs. 14: Xavier over Gonzaga

4 vs. 13: Bradley over Kansas

5 vs. 12: Texas A&M over Syracuse

6 vs. 11: UW-Milwaukee over OU

7 vs. 10: Northern Iowa over Georgetown

8 vs. 9 (essentially tossups): Bucknell over Arkansas

Sweet 16 Atlanta Regional -- Duke, LSU, West Virginia, Texas

Oakland Regional -- Bucknell, Kansas, Indiana, UCLA

Washington, D.C. -- UConn, Washington, North Carolina, Tennessee

Minneapolis -- Villanova, Boston College, Florida, Ohio State

Final Four Duke, Kansas, UConn, Villanova

Title game Villanova over Duke

[ORUTex]

Well, Ken Pomeroy agrees (see the other post). His "log5" analysis says we have a 1-in-8 chance of beating Memphis. Teamrankings.com says we have a 13.5% chance.

They also have full probabilities for each round (puts us at 3.2% chance of making the sweet 16 and .02% to play in the championship game). Somewhat interesting, if not terribly convincing.

http://teamrankings.com/ncbt/index.php

[tmh8286]

KenPom.com has the teamratings.com data posted today in a slightly different order, and it's easy to see, according to those numbers, that ORU is given the highest probability of any 16 seed of an upset, and also better than any 15 seed.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog ... breakdown/

Of course, that probability is still only 13.5%, but it's still a bit higher than the others.

It's interesting to note that Texas is given the highest probability to emerge from the Atlanta Regional, 14% over Duke's 11%; in fact, that's the highest probability given to any team to make the Final Four.

[tmh8286]

I found a brief explanation of the "log5" calculation here:

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

The question I have is whether these numbers are ever evaluated for accuracy, or if there is even a way to do that? How would you ever know if ORU really had a 13.5% chance of winning? You'd have to replay the game a couple of hundred times, then see if ORU had won 27 of them or something.

The numbers look pretty good, but in some respects are pretty meaningless. All this stuff just gives sports junkies something to occupy their time with, I guess.