WAC Conference In Trouble

[ORUJason]

With BYU and Utah leaving the Mountain West and as a result Fresno St., Boise St., and Nevada moving to the Mountain West, the WAC is stuck with 6 members, which is still enough to qualify for postseason bids in non-football sports, but the WAC needs 8 teams to qualify as a football conference (or so I read).

Could the trickle down from the potential break-up of the WAC (or the WAC trying to raid other conferences to remain viable) eventually affect the Summit League?

I don't know what the Sun-Belt conference wants to do as far as expansion, but we heard in the past that they would like to be a football-only conference. I also don't know what Conference-USA wants to do. They seem to be set right now with 12 teams in a fairly stable geographic alignment.

I would think that La. Tech will end up in either the Sun-Belt or C-USA which would make more geographic sense and that might spell the end of the WAC.

If the Sun-Belt took this as an opportunity to add football only schools and push out non-football schools, then UALR might be looking for a conference home. I'm not sure that the Summit League would be their first choice in that scenario.

If the WAC tried to stay together, would they look at I-AA football schools to fill out their conference? I wouldn't think so, but they might be desperate to simply hold the conference together for all non-football sports. Could that trickle down eventually open up opportunities for NDSU, SDSU, etc.?

[Hammersmith]

We're following this pretty closely up in the Dakotas for a number of reasons, but the crystal ball is pretty murky right now. One thing is certain, it's almost unanimous that the NDSU(and SDSU) fanbase is not interested in the WAC anymore. A WAC with Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada is a far cry from one without. As for what will happen, there are three school who hold the fate of the WAC in their hands. Hawai'i is talking about going independent, Utah State might be revisiting their refusal of the MWC invitation, and LA Tech might be casting glances toward the Sun Belt or C-USA. I'm not sure the WAC could survive losing one of them, but I'm positive it can't survive losing two.

From reports, it sounds like the WAC is eying Montana of the Big Sky, and also maybe Montana State, Portland State and Sacramento State. Cal Poly and UC Davis of the Big West are also names that have been thrown around. Problem is that only Montana could be competitive in FBS football right away, and none of those schools have budgets that could handle the extra travel and scholarships. Moving to a crippled WAC could be devastating to most of them.

I tend to favor the idea of a dead WAC with at least Idaho and maybe NMSU dropping to FCS and joining the Big Sky. Heck, Idaho used to be a member before they moved up to FBS many years back. It might rankle a bit to have to return, but it's better than your athletic department falling apart due to pride.

Will any of this have any bearing on the Summit? Maybe. If the Big Sky loses anyone to the WAC, SUU will probably get an invite. And we know how much they want that. There's even a rumor floating around that the Big Sky contacted SUU recently and asked them to submit an application in case they decide to expand in 2012. Even if the Big Sky doesn't lose anyone and gains a couple WAC survivors, it could still mean an invite for SUU. Currently at nine, picking up Idaho and NMSU would put the Big Sky at eleven. Easy to see a scenario where they take SUU and split into two divisions. But who knows, if it weren't for a greedy BYU and a reckless few administrators at Utah State, the WAC and the MWC, we would've seen the end of conference realignments a month or so back.

If SUU gets a Big Sky invite for whatever reason, it pretty much makes UND a slam dunk for Summit membership. I think the only thing holding up the invite right now is that the Summit doesn't want to go to 11 until they either have a member school announce they are going to leave, or the Summit finds a good 12th school. Maybe Denver, maybe Nebraska-Omaha, maybe Chicago State. None of those are very appealing, so it makes sense to hold off on a decision if the Summit can. It's not like UND is going anywhere. There's no realistic scenario for them to get a Big Sky invite, and a WAC invite at this point would be a disaster for all concerned.

Speaking of Denver, they are as good as out of the Sun Belt. I think they will be forced out in 2012 or 2013 when their grace period is over. The conference passed a rule a couple years back that said all members must sponsor a minimum number of conference sports(15 I think). Denver only sponsors something like 11 and has publicly stated they have no plans to add more. After a five year grace period, Denver will be forced out. New Orleans was facing the same issue and chose DIII.

As for NDSU & SDSU, I think the only place we're looking is the MVC, and we all know how much of a long shot that is. The MAC would be nice in its own way, but the Dakotas are way too far west for them to consider us. No, it's better to stay where we are for now and continue to build up our programs as we help build up the Summit and MVFC. If the Big East break up would've happened, I would be worried about losing Oakland(and just maybe IUPUI) to the Horizon, but I think the core of our conference is safe.

[ORUTerry]

Nice recap of the current WAC breakup. Losing SUU to the Big Sky (or where ever) would be a win-win for the conference and for the Thunderbirds. Not sure the MVC is ready to expand.

[Hammersmith]

A new rumor just hit that Cal Poly will be holding a major athletics announcement on Tuesday. Well, the announcement is confirmed, but the exact content is a rumor. Local betting is a football-only invite to the Big Sky. Could also be a WAC invite. Could be something else entirely like a major donation or a stadium expansion. Guess we'll know something in a few days.

[TrueBlue82]

A new rumor just hit that Cal Poly will be holding a major athletics announcement on Tuesday. Well, the announcement is confirmed, but the exact content is a rumor. Local betting is a football-only invite to the Big Sky. Could also be a WAC invite. Could be something else entirely like a major donation or a stadium expansion. Guess we'll know something in a few days.

I'd put my money on a WAC invite. The WAC is reeling right now - and rumors have circled the last two weeks about Cal Poly - and possibly Cal-Davis - joining the conference. Frankly, I think Cal Poly moving to the Big Sky would be a lateral move with increased costs.

[Hammersmith]

I'd put my money on a WAC invite. The WAC is reeling right now - and rumors have circled the last two weeks about Cal Poly - and possibly Cal-Davis - joining the conference. Frankly, I think Cal Poly moving to the Big Sky would be a lateral move with increased costs.

Sorry, I should've said local in this case meant Cal Poly fans. I don't have any idea what the announcement is going to be. And moving to the Big Sky would be for football only; eveything else would stay in the Big West. Cal Poly currently plays football with UC Davis, SUU, UND & USD in the Great West Conference. Getting a Big Sky invite would be a huge scheduling benefit over a five-team conference with no autobid.

[Hammersmith]

Just an update: Cal Poly's big announcement was that they and UC Davis did get football-only invites into the Big Sky. In the Big Sky press release, the commish basically said they were going to expand more in the near future. While it's possible they will go in a different direction, most(including myself) feel that a full SUU invite is imminent.

[Old Titan]

Just an update: Cal Poly's big announcement was that they and UC Davis did get football-only invites into the Big Sky. In the Big Sky press release, the commish basically said they were going to expand more in the near future. While it's possible they will go in a different direction, most(including myself) feel that a full SUU invite is imminent.

How soon is "Imminent"?

Of particular interest to ORU fans, since Southern Utah is our travel partner for men's and women's basketball once Centenary's tour of duty ends this season.

[Hammersmith]

How soon is "Imminent"?

Of particular interest to ORU fans, since Southern Utah is our travel partner for men's and women's basketball once Centenary's tour of duty ends this season.

1-2 months for the decision, 2012 for the actual move. Fullerton(Big Sky commish) has said he wants the expansion decisions wrapped up in 30-60 days. If he sticks to that timetable, the only thing that could derail the SUU invite in my opinion is the WAC totally disintegrating and Idaho begging for a home. The other small wild card is Sacramento State. When Sac St applied to the Big Sky about a decade and a half ago, they would have preferred to only play football in the Sky and play everything else in the Big West. Way smaller travel costs. But the policy of the Sky was you play every conference sport if you want to get in. Sac St sucked it up and joined the Sky. Now, after 15-ish years, UC Davis and Cal Poly are getting the exact deal Sac St wanted. How do you think they feel about that? If they get mad and try to pull everything out of the Sky except football, things could get interesting in a totally different way. I don't think that's going to happen, but us rubes are talking about it.

My opinion is that you guys will partner up with SUU for one year, then switch to UMKC starting in 2012-13. I suppose my choice of words wasn't the best, but in a topic which is normally discussed in years and decades, a month or two can be seen as imminent. And there's almost always a year or three of lag time between the decision and its implementation.

On a side note, I hope this happens because it will make our travel easier when our teams come down to play. With the upgrading of Missouri highway 71 to interstate standards from KC to Joplin, it should be a nice 4-5 hour trip on uninterrupted 4-lane between ORU and UMKC.

[SDSUJacks]

Good stuff Hammmersmith...pretty much nailed it.

I agree that SDSU and NDSU to the Missouri Valley is a long shot, but, I could see it happening down the road someday. If not, we're still happy. I love the FCS and the MVFC is arguably the best conference in the FCS.

Great West conference is now dead and you know that USD and UND are on their knees praying for a MVFC expansion. I say let 'em rot for awhile.

I'm not thrilled w/ the Summit but losing CC and SUU and replacing them w/ old "pals" USD and UND is a great step (for me anyway). I was hoping w/ all the conference realignment that we'd get a MVC or Horizon team or two fall in our lap. But, we could've also very easily lost a OU, IUPUI or even ORU. Adding UND and losing SUU is a positive.

Great win over KU. Your kicker (Ryan Jastram) that nailed the two FG's is from SuFu here. He is neighbors of a great friend of mine. He is a transfer from NM State who Kansas also plays this year. Seems he was destined to beat the Jayhawks.

[Old Titan]

My opinion is that you guys will partner up with SUU for one year, then switch to UMKC starting in 2012-13. I suppose my choice of words wasn't the best, but in a topic which is normally discussed in years and decades, a month or two can be seen as imminent. And there's almost always a year or three of lag time between the decision and its implementation.

On a side note, I hope this happens because it will make our travel easier when our teams come down to play. With the upgrading of Missouri highway 71 to interstate standards from KC to Joplin, it should be a nice 4-5 hour trip on uninterrupted 4-lane between ORU and UMKC.

Oh, I would call 1-2 months "imminent", especially considering the time frames you described.

It seems inevitable that UND will get its mascot issues resolved and complete the Summit League "Dakota Quad" about the same time SUU finally gets it's long-awaited wish of a Mountain/Pacific time zones conference home. The question is how long afterward can the Dakota schools "tolerate" the Summit League, though for the life of me I can't understand what makes them think their athletic programs are so much better than everyone else in the league, or why they would be so appealing to any other conference.

I've always considered UMKC a great travel partner for ORU. That would mean we would always play each other on a Saturday twice a year, so fans of the visiting school can make that Highway 71 jaunt for men's and women's games on the same day. Would be great for both programs AND the league if the two schools could rekindle the kind of deep-seated rivalry they had in the Michael Watson days.

[Hammersmith]

It seems inevitable that UND will get its mascot issues resolved and complete the Summit League "Dakota Quad" about the same time SUU finally gets it's long-awaited wish of a Mountain/Pacific time zones conference home. The question is how long afterward can the Dakota schools "tolerate" the Summit League, though for the life of me I can't understand what makes them think their athletic programs are so much better than everyone else in the league, or why they would be so appealing to any other conference.

I understand that it sounds bad when new members like us talk about moving on a few short years after we've joined, but we've been in a transformative phase for quite a while and we don't know when that will stop. Talking about "the next step" has become something like a habit. We don't know when that step will happen, it could be two years or twenty, but we're more comfortable when we have a destination in mind. Obviously, that will have to stop someday, but we don't know if that is now or in the future. Until then, we continue to map things out.

Why do we think we can succeed? Because we've done a lot of it. Fifteen years ago, NDSU had an enrollment under 10,000, under $40 million in annual research, a grad school with less than 1000 students and fewer than 20 doctoral programs, and an athletic department in DII. Today, we're about to crack 15,000 total enrollment(95%+ on campus), $120 million in research, about 2200 grad students, 40+ doctoral degrees, and a DI program that has gone to NCAA tournaments in something like six to eight different sports, counting individual efforts, in two years of eligibility. That's a lot of progress in a short time. And we don't know where we are in the process. Are we still near the beginning of a massive period of growth? Are we around the halfway point? Are we almost at the end and about to enter a period of stability? We don't have the answer to that. Until we do, we will continue to look to see what's over the next hill. Honestly, aren't schools like us, annoying though we may sometimes be, better partners to improve the conference than schools that have been treading water for a decade or more?

And we belong in the Summit right now; it's the best fit for the level of our programs. We would be totally outclassed in the MVC. But what's true today might not be true tomorrow, and it's best to plan for that. I read somewhere that the #1 reason new businesses fail is because sales do not meet expectations. That's obvious enough. But the #2 reason new businesses fail is because sales exceed expectations. They exceed so much that the business tries to grow without a well-thought out business plan. Mistakes are made and the business collapses. Krispy Kreme is the perfect example. Taking time now to think about where we want to go in the future is our way of avoiding that pitfall. Of course, it's not us fans that make the decisions, but if it feels like we're part of the process, it creates a sense of ownership among the fanbase that leads to a more fervent following, higher attendance and more donations. Too much "ownership" is also unhealthy, but I don't think we're close to that point yet.

Sorry this went so long, but I wrote most of it between classes. I generally stay in teacher-mode throughout the day, and this post caught the brunt of it.

[Old Titan]

"The Peter Principle" should be required reading for the athletic director and president of every low-major that has dreams of moving up in D-1.

Just ask Valparaiso basketball fans if they are happier now in The Horizon League than they were 10 years ago in the Mid-Con.

[SOLO_Gold]

Building a Better WAC: Stabilizing the WAC Long Term Using FCS Upgrades

By Tobi Writes (Correspondent) on September 29, 2010

"I would rank the other schools that fans have suggested may be petitioning the WAC as long shots to actually be doing so. Maybe a Sun Belt school like ULL or Arkansas State (all sports) or UALR (non-football) would. Perhaps a conference's geographic outlier like (non-football) Oral Roberts."

"I would suggest adding Denver and Seattle as well as going after Oral Roberts and San Francisco State (or Pacific) as they offer the WAC great value at little cost."

"Oral Roberts is located in Tulsa. They have averaged right at 6,000 fans per game over the last decade and as a school where the fan base has deeply personal religious ties, they may be able to draw well on the road in conference. ORU is an outlier in the rather forgettable Summit League. Joining the WAC would be a tremendous step up in terms of perception and would put the ORU name out in front of folks in areas where Oral Roberts had more of an impact, which would help enrollment and that is the main point of having athletic programs from a university perspective."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/458964-building-a-better-wac-stabilizing-the-wac-long-term-using-fcs-upgrades