Mike Minyard Posted May 28, 2007 Share Posted May 28, 2007 Stats: http://www.arizonaathletics.com/SportSe ... PSID=10000 Apparently they have a very impressive ace. They only went 12-11 away from home racking up a 28-4 record at home. I know one stat that I like, and that's our record at Wichita State. I'd say we have an advantage with playing the stadium several times the past few years. Arizona also went 26-27 last year without postseason. Arizona will have some nerves from inexperience, and our guys will need to do something early on Friday. I think a key will be for us to get a run or two lead in the first few innings. Wouldn't mind seeing Chad put a few runs up on the board by knocking out a bomb over the scoreboard (Castillo style) in the first inning. Arizona was at home watching our guys on ESPN play in the Super Regionals last year. The experience factor will be key this weekend. A key guy last time we played at a WSU regional was Andrew Sanderson. His performance was unbelievable. We will need someone to step up in the bullpen. It will be interesting to see how Ashman fits into the regional. He was a key in the postseason last year. Do you see any stats that just jump out at you??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcboy2000 Posted May 28, 2007 Share Posted May 28, 2007 A post on one of their message boards has the coach saying they will pitch Guilmet, who is apparently their number #2 guy. Check out the post here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Minyard Posted May 28, 2007 Author Share Posted May 28, 2007 A post on one of their message boards has the coach saying they will pitch Guilmet, who is apparently their number #2 guy. Check out the post here. That's who I was referring to as the ace. Look at his stat line... it's the most impressive on the UA team. Stat wise it looks like Guilmet is the #1 guy with Mills being the #2. There starting pitching drops off after those two guys. However, it looks like they have two or three guys that can get it done in the bullpen. Winning the first game will be extremely important for ORU. Wichita State doesn't strike fear in me like a hosting No. 1 seed usually would to me. I think our guys are flat out better than WSU. Arizona bugs me if they don't have to use their bullpen much the first two games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bogus Smith Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 Stats: http://www.arizonaathletics.com/SportSe ... PSID=10000 Apparently they have a very impressive ace. They only went 12-11 away from home racking up a 28-4 record at home. I know one stat that I like, and that's our record at Wichita State. I'd say we have an advantage with playing the stadium several times the past few years. Arizona also went 26-27 last year without postseason. Arizona will have some nerves from inexperience, and our guys will need to do something early on Friday. I think a key will be for us to get a run or two lead in the first few innings. Wouldn't mind seeing Chad put a few runs up on the board by knocking out a bomb over the scoreboard (Castillo style) in the first inning. Arizona was at home watching our guys on ESPN play in the Super Regionals last year. The experience factor will be key this weekend. A key guy last time we played at a WSU regional was Andrew Sanderson. His performance was unbelievable. We will need someone to step up in the bullpen. It will be interesting to see how Ashman fits into the regional. He was a key in the postseason last year. Do you see any stats that just jump out at you??? Here's what jumps out to me (in no certain order): The 'Cats appear to have three guys that can really hit (with slugging percentages over .600), including our friend from Union HS. Very impressive stats from those three guys. Additionally, they seem to have some great team speed as there are four guys that combine for about 69% of their stolen bases. This will keep our batterymen on their toes. Depending on how aggressive they come out in Game #1 may determine the tempo of the game. I would guess that they will attempt to take it to us and make us show them that we can "catch and throw" with them. The middle of their infield seems solid with an equal number of DPs to us, but their defense may have some kinks in it as their fielding percentage is about 10 points lower than ours. Their pitching seems to be very strong. Their K/BB ratio is around 2.5:1 and their Ks per inning pitched is about 1.0. We're similar at 2.9:1 and 1.0-K per inning, respectively. They appear to have two main starters, with the rest of the staff taking turns starting in a three-game series. If the series goes to five games for the 'Cats, they will need to employ their Friday starter again to make ends meet (as I'm sure the opponent will, too). Anyone else want to pitch in?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 Arizona is a VERY formidable opponent - and could've easily snagged a #1 seed (and a host position). The stat comparison regarding fielding percentage is valid, except that I believe ORU's defense is a step-above-solid, and Arizona's solid, rather than UA being deficient. However, when you start to compare pitching stats, we have to remember that UA plays a much stronger schedule, so even though ORU's stats are slightly better than the Cats, I'd have to give the edge to UA. But, as we know, in a weekend 4-team series, ANYTHING can happen. I still feel very good about this team. My primary concern is the shift from Mid-Con talent to the Big Show... and whether we can "flip the switch" to play at that higher level. Hopefully, the experience gained from last year's trip to Clemson will pay dividends again this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Minyard Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 I don't know if Arizona's schedule was really that much tougher. I'm sure it was better overall, but really by how much? Coach Walton does everything he can to play the toughest non-conference schedule. ORU just does the reverse of the BCS league schools. OSU for instance plays Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Western Illinois and similar schools in non-league play. Arizona didn't play a brutal non-conference schedule, but better than OSU's. ORU plays a BRUTAL non-conference schedule all on the road. It's not like ORU is getting a chance to play Long Beach St., TCU, Baylor, Texas, Cal, etc. at J.L. Johnson Stadium. We also played nine games against Texas schools in March after our guys had to deal with the January/February ice storm. I think Coach Walton does the best he can with the Mid-Con. He tries to level it out over an entire season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bogus Smith Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 It's not like ORU is getting a chance to play Long Beach St., TCU, Baylor, Texas, Cal, etc. at J.L. Johnson Stadium. It's my understanding that this is going to change for 2008. I believe that LBSU and Baylor are going to play a series at JLJ next season. Has anyone else heard that, too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bogus Smith Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 I don't know if Arizona's schedule was really that much tougher. I'm sure it was better overall, but really by how much? Coach Walton does everything he can to play the toughest non-conference schedule. ORU just does the reverse of the BCS league schools. OSU for instance plays Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Western Illinois and similar schools in non-league play. Arizona didn't play a brutal non-conference schedule, but better than OSU's. ORU plays a BRUTAL non-conference schedule all on the road. It's not like ORU is getting a chance to play Long Beach St., TCU, Baylor, Texas, Cal, etc. at J.L. Johnson Stadium. We also played nine games against Texas schools in March after our guys had to deal with the January/February ice storm. I think Coach Walton does the best he can with the Mid-Con. He tries to level it out over an entire season. BTW, MM, you're absolutely correct...Rob does the best he can with the Mid-Con schedule he has to play in April/May to balance out the rest of his games. That's the reason that we have a RPI north of 40 this season. Also, he does a great job of maintaining consistency with his pitching rotation and mid-week games. Contrary to popular thinking, Rob uses his mid-week games to give his other pitchers a chance to shine and does not disturb the pitching rotation for weekend games. That's how we discovered Chance Chapman (during his mid-week outing with Arkansas and 17Ks) and Jerry Sullivan (during his outings with WSU). They were not part of the original pitching rotation when we started our season with TCU, Baylor and Texas - but later in the season, those guys became stellar contributors. Looking at things as they are today...Sunny four years ago, Rob Walton today. What would ORU baseball be like today if Rob Walton wasn't our Head Coach?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 I don't know if Arizona's schedule was really that much tougher. I'm sure it was better overall, but really by how much? Coach Walton does everything he can to play the toughest non-conference schedule. ORU just does the reverse of the BCS league schools. OSU for instance plays Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Western Illinois and similar schools in non-league play. Arizona didn't play a brutal non-conference schedule, but better than OSU's. ORU plays a BRUTAL non-conference schedule all on the road. It's not like ORU is getting a chance to play Long Beach St., TCU, Baylor, Texas, Cal, etc. at J.L. Johnson Stadium. We also played nine games against Texas schools in March after our guys had to deal with the January/February ice storm. I think Coach Walton does the best he can with the Mid-Con. He tries to level it out over an entire season. Mike - I firmly agree that Rob does a great job of scheduling, as most of our non-conference opponents are still playing this weekend. However, the Mid-Con is a truly inferior conference, and my point is that it's simply unfair for us to compare stats straight across without some "asterisk" for strength of schedule. As for "how much better was Arizona's schedule"... the Cats strength of schedule was ranked 42nd in the nation (ORU #115). I'm certain that ORU's non-conference SOS was tougher than UA's, but we all know the Mid-Con and Pac-10 are simply not on the same planet (speaking metaphorically, of course)! UA is as good (or better) than Wichita State, and frankly, given our recent success against the Shockers, I would consider a win against UA a bigger upset than a win over WSU. We couldn't have asked for a better regional assignment than Wichita - but the price we pay for playing close to home is that we face a UA team that is arguably the top #2 seed in the tournament. The top #2 seed against ESPN's "Sleeper #3" seed??? Should be a match-up for the ages! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Minyard Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 Blue, I think we're in for a great pitching duel on Friday afternoon. It reminds me of when Michael Rogers and Mark Prior went against each other. Two great pitchers going at it in the NCAA Tournament. I think the match-up is a little more even this time around, and you can probably get us a little bit of an edge. It will be interesting to see which team can squeak out a couple runs. I'd expect a 3-2 type game. I think it will be one of those "on the edge of your seat" type games. As far as comparing schedules, I think you have to look at this way... ORU non-conference vs. Pac-10 schedule Arizona's non-conference schedule vs. Mid-Con schedule Obviously Arizona's schedule is tougher, but really by how much? They play so many games at home. That has to take away from the non-conference strength of schedule. WIU isn't a very good baseball team, but it sure would be easy to give a game up after a long bus trip to Macomb. Our guys didn't get into Macomb until about 1 a.m. on Thursday morning before playing a game hours later. Here is how Arizona did against the Pac-10 1. Arizona (2-3) - two non-conference games - NCAA Regional Host 3. at UCLA (1-2) - NCAA Tournament team 4. California (3-0) - Combined score of 21-15 5. Washington (3-0) 6. Oregon State (3-0) - NCAA Tournament team 7. at Washington State (1-2) 8. at Stanford (2-1) 9. USC (1-2) These guys are beatable, no doubt. They went 4-5 against the bottom of their league. The only series sweeps they had were at home. Their ace was roughed up in his last outing. He'll come out wanting to prove something. He hasn't had a "great" performance since early April against Cal. He has done well since against weaker teams, but he really didn't do much against the better teams. Their starter is good, but I'd take Chance over him any day of the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickeyb Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 Blue, I think we're in for a great pitching duel on Friday afternoon. It reminds me of when Michael Rogers and Mark Prior went against each other. Two great pitchers going at it in the NCAA Tournament. I think the match-up is a little more even this time around, and you can probably get us a little bit of an edge. It will be interesting to see which team can squeak out a couple runs. I'd expect a 3-2 type game. I think it will be one of those "on the edge of your seat" type games. I could be wrong, but didn't USC hold Prior for their second game and throw their #2 guy against us that year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Blevins Posted May 30, 2007 Share Posted May 30, 2007 USC did not throw Prior against us in '01. They threw another strong righty name Rik Currier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Minyard Posted May 30, 2007 Author Share Posted May 30, 2007 USC did not throw Prior against us in '01. They threw another strong righty name Rik Currier. Thanks... I was talking about past regionals with SH, and he said it was Prior. I couldn't remember who it was, but I knew he was a very solid pitcher. Cris, you know baseball. I don't doubt you for a second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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