2025-26 Predictions, Projections & Prognostications

[Old Titan]

I find the transformation of certain anonymous contributors from unabashed program apologist to occasional bitter troll both fascinating and sad.

Here’s hoping for some sweet to balance the sour in future posts.

[ORob2]

Eric Haslem (Haslametrics) released his preseason ratings recently.  Here's how he predicts our season goes.

ORU is ranked 272nd overall, and 5th in the Summit.

Summit League Expectations:
Omaha-153
St. Thomas-155
SDSU-173
NDSU-198
ORU-272
UMKC-280
SD-298
ND-311
Denver-318

He also has game by game predictions, here are the 7 D1 wins projected for ORU and the expected score
vs Tulsa - 71.29 - 71.07 (Yes, 0.22 point difference)
vs Montana State - 71.29 - 70.59
vs UT Arlington - 73.56 - 71.85
vs North Dakota - 77.16 - 71.79
vs UMKC - 70.46 - 66.84
vs South Dakota - 82.52 - 77.57
vs Denver - 74.24 - 68.31

For a total record of 10-21 (4-12 in conference).  There are 9(!) other games on there that are predicted as losses where the projected margin is less than 3 points, and 7 of those are conference matchups.

[TrueBlue82]

4 hours ago, ORob2 said:

Eric Haslem (Haslametrics) released his preseason ratings recently.  Here's how he predicts our season goes.

ORU is ranked 272nd overall, and 5th in the Summit.

Summit League Expectations:
Omaha-153
St. Thomas-155
SDSU-173
NDSU-198
ORU-272
UMKC-280
SD-298
ND-311
Denver-318

He also has game by game predictions, here are the 7 D1 wins projected for ORU and the expected score
vs Tulsa - 71.29 - 71.07 (Yes, 0.22 point difference)
vs Montana State - 71.29 - 70.59
vs UT Arlington - 73.56 - 71.85
vs North Dakota - 77.16 - 71.79
vs UMKC - 70.46 - 66.84
vs South Dakota - 82.52 - 77.57
vs Denver - 74.24 - 68.31

For a total record of 10-21 (4-12 in conference).  There are 9(!) other games on there that are predicted as losses where the projected margin is less than 3 points, and 7 of those are conference matchups.

Similar to other projections, there’s a big gap between the top 4 and bottom 5. 
 

Gap from 1-4: 46 

Gap from 5-9: 46

Gap from 4-5: 74

HUGE difference between the contenders and the pretenders. 

[Old Titan]

On 10/13/2025 at 10:05 AM, TrueBlue82 said:

Ken Pomeroy Preseason Rankings:

158 St Thomas

169 SDSU

187 Omaha

215 NDSU

305 USD

307 ORU

314 UND

317 KC

344 Denver

Pomeroy is one of the few preseason (and mid-season) analysts for which I have a lot of respect. While I am pleasantly surprised to see ORU land in the #6 spot, the two observations that jumped out to me were:

1. The gap of 90 teams between #4 NDSU and #5 USD is staggering. The basic assumption is that the top four teams will be solid contenders this year and the other five will have no chance at cracking into the upper division.  As a result, teams 5-9 will be scrambling for seeding to determine which of the top four teams will defeat them in the quarterfinals of the tourney.

2. With no teams above 150 and half of the teams ranked at 300 or worse, it is a sad testament of how far the Summit has fallen. NIL and the portal continue to widen the divide between the haves and the have-nots of college basketball, and the Summit has been particularly decimated.  While some players may benefit from the enhanced income and opportunity for upward mobility, it has been detrimental to the college game and is unsustainable in its current state IMHO.

According to KenPom's preseason crystal ball, ORU is currently a favorite in only 5 games vs. D1 opponents, including the Golden Eagles' conference home tilts with the other 4 members of TrueBlue82's "Below The Gap Club".

Gotta admit, I'm a little surprised KP has the Summit League ranked so low (23rd) amidst the other historically one-bid leagues:  the Summit was a respectable #17 overall in last year's final conference rankings, slotted above a half dozen other similar leagues that are ranked higher in this year's prognostication.  I can only guess his pessimistic outlook is due to virtually no firepower returning to Summit schools from which to build any analytical case for a higher ranking at this point.

[Eaglefan 21]

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/sports-illustrated-complete-2025-26-mens-college-basketball-rankings-digital-cover
 

SI has us ranked at 248 and 6th in the summit. 

[TrueBlue82]

Okay, folks - it's TIME.

We've seen the Summit League Pre-season picks, the exhibition game, and all of the kenpom/haslem-like analysis.  There's nothing more that we will see before the season starts.  It's TIME.

We know less about this team than any other in recent ORU history.  One carryover player, new coaching staff, and a TON of question marks.  But, no one said this was going to be easy...

Non-D1 - Home 3-0

No longer a "slam dunk" after last year's debacle, but this isn't last year's team - and the 2025 opponents simply aren't as good as Rogers State was in 2024.

Non-Conference - Away 0-6

ORU will be an underdog in each of their road games, although Weber State could be a "push". It's possible that the guys will pull together to steal one on the road, but unlikely. (best chances: Weber State, Missouri State)

Non-Conference - Home 3-1

ORU has built a great home schedule this year, and will get Tulsa and Belmont early in the season before opponents can build a good tape library. Not much is expected of Montana State this year, and UT Arlington is decent, but beatable.  I think the team will continue ORU's long history of winning in the Mabee Center, but falter once. (Most likely loss: Belmont, right after the rivalry game with Tulsa)

Non-Conference - Neutral 1-1

ORU will likely be an underdog in all of their Florida Thanksgiving week games, but I have to believe that they will find a way to scratch out a win in at least one of those games.

Conference - Away 2-6

According to pre-season analysts, the Summit has four contenders and five pretenders this season (of which ORU is one). I'll give the Eagles a split in their four road games against other pretenders.

Conference - Home 5-3

I believe that Summit opponents will find Mabee Center less hospitable than the past two years, and will face a team with more "fire in the belly" than they've seen in prior years. That alone should be good enough for an upset or two in front of the home fans.

Summary: 14-17 (7-9 Summit); Home 11-4, Away 2-12, Neutral 1-1

I think this team will improve and gel as the season progresses, but will likely face one of the contenders in the first round in Sioux Falls, and will likely receive an early exit. Even with a 14-18 final record, most fans will see that the team played with a renewed intensity and will consider the first Coach Barnett season as a reasonable success.

Frankly, with all of the unknowns, this team could finish the regular season anywhere from 9-22 to 21-10, which is a WIDE range. While I am fully confident that a winning season is a possibility, I'm also realistic to know that I would consider 14-17 a success - and anything on top would be gravy.

Your turn!!!

 

 

 

[dave]

I have not had the opportunity to see the exhibition game or practices. Nor see KB coach. The biggest question I have that will determine the success or lack of it will be measured in DEFENSE and REBOUNDING. I have heard it said by some on this board that the days of Ken Trickey's key to winning of making sure you put more points on the board than the other guy is returning. While that is undeniably true (you certainly can't win if you don't outscore your opponent) the converse is also true. The other team can't win if they can't score the basketball. The problem sometimes with the run and gun philosophy is defense gets under emphasized at the expense of putting points on the board. If they are conditioned and coached to play intense defense and keep opposing teams off the offensive boards (which hasn't been the case for over a decade at ORU) they should be about .500 in the Summit. I'm going to predict 15-16 with a reasonable shot at going 17-14 with a better than anticipated showing against Summit League foes. Here's to our courtside motto, "Expect a Miracle."

[tmh8286]

22 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said:

Okay, folks - it's TIME.

We've seen the Summit League Pre-season picks, the exhibition game, and all of the kenpom/haslem-like analysis.  There's nothing more that we will see before the season starts.  It's TIME.

We know less about this team than any other in recent ORU history.  One carryover player, new coaching staff, and a TON of question marks.  But, no one said this was going to be easy...

Non-D1 - Home 3-0

No longer a "slam dunk" after last year's debacle, but this isn't last year's team - and the 2025 opponents simply aren't as good as Rogers State was in 2024.

Non-Conference - Away 0-6

ORU will be an underdog in each of their road games, although Weber State could be a "push". It's possible that the guys will pull together to steal one on the road, but unlikely. (best chances: Weber State, Missouri State)

Non-Conference - Home 3-1

ORU has built a great home schedule this year, and will get Tulsa and Belmont early in the season before opponents can build a good tape library. Not much is expected of Montana State this year, and UT Arlington is decent, but beatable.  I think the team will continue ORU's long history of winning in the Mabee Center, but falter once. (Most likely loss: Belmont, right after the rivalry game with Tulsa)

Non-Conference - Neutral 1-1

ORU will likely be an underdog in all of their Florida Thanksgiving week games, but I have to believe that they will find a way to scratch out a win in at least one of those games.

Conference - Away 2-6

According to pre-season analysts, the Summit has four contenders and five pretenders this season (of which ORU is one). I'll give the Eagles a split in their four road games against other pretenders.

Conference - Home 5-3

I believe that Summit opponents will find Mabee Center less hospitable than the past two years, and will face a team with more "fire in the belly" than they've seen in prior years. That alone should be good enough for an upset or two in front of the home fans.

Summary: 14-17 (7-9 Summit); Home 11-4, Away 2-12, Neutral 1-1

I think this team will improve and gel as the season progresses, but will likely face one of the contenders in the first round in Sioux Falls, and will likely receive an early exit. Even with a 14-18 final record, most fans will see that the team played with a renewed intensity and will consider the first Coach Barnett season as a reasonable success.

Frankly, with all of the unknowns, this team could finish the regular season anywhere from 9-22 to 21-10, which is a WIDE range. While I am fully confident that a winning season is a possibility, I'm also realistic to know that I would consider 14-17 a success - and anything on top would be gravy.

Your turn!!!

 

 

 

Great evaluation, Blue!! I think you're right on!!

[Keenan Henderson]

Listening to Coach's show on the ORU website and he saying this team has some dudes/dogs.  We have not heard that the last 2 years.  Guys that are tough, physical and fight like mad.  The one's he mentioned in that category are Sparks, Chase, and Naveh.  When you have some players like that it gives you a chance to win.  It does not guarantee wins but gives ORU a fighting chance.

[dave]

8 hours ago, Keenan Henderson said:

Listening to Coach's show on the ORU website and he saying this team has some dudes/dogs.  We have not heard that the last 2 years.  Guys that are tough, physical and fight like mad. 

I think that is the kind of bball we all are looking for. We see the aggressiveness from other teams, regardless of their Power rating, and wonder why our guys don't have the same intensity. That is what Coach Musick was bringing to the women's program. Hopefully Coach Anderson will continue to build the program. Coach Barnett needs to introduce a brand of ball that is disruptive and dominant on defense (how about that alliteration?) and agressive, unselfish and unpredictable on offense. 

[theeagleman5]

Hopefully the ORU Men have more DAWGS than dogs on the roster this season....i think there is a difference....TheEagleman is looking forward to the opener vs. OSU in Stillwater next Tuesday Night...who knows??...maybe these Dawgs have a fighting shot.....GO BLUE!! 

[eagle88]

32 minutes ago, theeagleman5 said:

Hopefully the ORU Men have more DAWGS than dogs on the roster this season....i think there is a difference....TheEagleman is looking forward to the opener vs. OSU in Stillwater next Tuesday Night...who knows??...maybe these Dawgs have a fighting shot.....GO BLUE!! 

I too am ready to watch some DAWGS, not dogs! Things tend to originate from the top down. What the head coach promotes and demands typically filters down to the players. The word on the street that I have heard for some time now is the coaching staff has a lot of energy and the practices are high energy. I wish we all knew how talented this team is and how well they will do but one thing I have great confidence in is they will play hard and not give up. We will know more this Tuesday when we play a talented OSU squad.