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"How to Pick the Tourney Giant Killers!" - ESPN the Magazine


EasyTELGuy

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We were mentioned (unfortunately) as a "Not So Fast!" listed in the article titled - "Anatomy of a Giant Killer".

This is an in-depth, statistical analysis article that measures the likelihood of a team upsetting the top seeds in the Tournament.  The whole Giant Killer equation is based upon, again, some intricate analysis of statistics of those teams that have proven to be the Upset Cinderella stories of the NCAA Tournament in the past 5 years.

Here's the way they come up with their numbers:

"A Peek Behind the Curtain: We defined "Giant Killer" ("GK") as any Tourney team that beats another seeded at least five spots higher, with three categorical exceptions: 1) The team plays in one of the six power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC); 2) it is associated with regular Tourney success (Gonzaga, Memphis, Nevada); and 3) it is currently ranked in the Top 20 (Air Force, Butler, Southern Illinois).  Then we tweaked the formula we created last year, knocking down the time frame under analysis from 10 years to five, removing two variables that ultimately proved too hard to define (power wins, power games played) and adding three others that revealed promising trends (rebound margin, FT attempts per game margin, FT%).  Through the lens of the 21 most recent GKs, we found relevant thresholds for each of our 11 categories.  (The other categories are winning percentage, prior season's winning percentage, ppg differential, FG% differential, 3PT% differential, A-to-TO ratio, number of senior starters and percentage of points scored by the leading scorer.)  To be significant, a threshold had to predict at least 75% of GKs.  Thresholds in hand, we broke down 68 of this season's most successful mid-majors to come up with the most likely upset candidates.  All stats used are through Feb. 19."

Obviously, we were included in the list of 68, but under the "Not so fast" column that noted: "The bandwagon of these potential BracketBusters will be full, but our numbers say you should hop another ride to the top of your pool." 

ORAL ROBERTS

(19-9; 11-1; Mid-Continent)

Forget that early-season win at Kansas.  Not only is 20-point scorer Caleb Green carrying too much of the offense (27.9%), but the rock is also too slippery for the Golden Eagles (.874:1 A-to-TO ratio). 

Obviously, assuming we make "The Tourney" through winning our Conference tourney, our boys will have to buck this impressive statistical number track of our comrades at ESPN! 

Enjoy breaking it down...GO EAGLES!  HERE'S TO BEING AN ESPN GK!!!!!!!!!  :-D 

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I think this is good.  Last year, we got too much Cinderella pub, IMHO.  No way Memphis was going to look past us after everyone tagged them as the most vulnerable #1 and said if anyone could make history it was ORU.  Let the pundits diminish our abilities (rightly or wrongly). 

But first, we have to leave our shepherding post and get to the battlefield before we can slay any giants.

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