Popular Post Otis 83 Posted May 12, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted May 12, 2023 Well I needed a distraction to keep me out of the fray of that rather testy, and at times unChristlike, discussion about the 23-34 basketball schedule. So I locked myself in my sports laboratory to do some analysis on the baseball tournament seeding predictions. Here are the results of this very complex modeling. Looking at several NCCA projections, every 4 seed is an auto bid. This reinforces Old Titan’s conjecture that the selection committee is very unlikely to put a Power 5 at large team in the 4 spot. Using those same projections, only two 3 seeds are auto qualifiers, Wofford and Northeastern. I took the schedules of those two schools and ORU and put them in Excel with the current RPI table for a little analysis. It is hard to quibble with Northeastern getting a 3 seed ahead of ORU. They are 6-0 against teams in the top 50 RPI. Wofford is a little puzzling to be honest. Granted they have a 55 RPI probably because their conference isn’t as horrifically bad as the Summit. But if you look at their record against the top 50 they are 2-4. ORU is 4-5 by the way. Now I’m leaving data and going to subjective analysis. I think Wofford is getting 3 seed consideration over the Golden Eagles, in part, because the committee likes to make the regionals, well regional. They aren’t very inclined to move an auto qualifier from the southeast to be a 4 seed in Stillwater or Fayetteville when they can do that to ORU. My view is that given how loaded our broader region is in college baseball talent, it may even be harder for the Golden Eagles to be a 3 seed than if we were in a less talented area of the country. There probably isn’t a path for ORU to knock Wofford out of the 3 seed. It would be an even longer shot to knock out Northeastern. Maybe if there is an upset in one of those conference tournaments. Let’s take a look at the Southern Conference where Wofford is a member. What’s perplexing to me, and I admit I don’t spend a lot of time following this conference, is that Wofford currently sits in 3rd place yet we find them as the Southern Conference auto qualifier in so many of these projections. Samford, with an RPI of 87, sits in first place and Mercer, with an RPI of 130, sits in second place. Wofford is 2-1 against Samford and has yet to play Mercer. Apparently in the Southern Conference teams only play one 3 game series against conference opponents. Apparently the prognosticators assume Wofford is going to sweep Mercer and The Citadel to end the season and move up to first place and win the tournament. It would take an analysis of all the 4 seed auto qualifiers to see if ORU has a chance at a 3 seed if Samford or Mercer upset Wofford in the tournament. I’ll update this thread if I find the time to work on that in the lab. PS: If you disagree with my analysis please try your best not to make it personal and start calling me names. We’re better than that...at least I like to think that we are. 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Otis, my man!!!...TheEagleman has to give you serious props for that detailed analysis of Wofford and Southern Conf. Baseball....just fascinating to say the least.....but honestly we all have to admit that if ORU gets the auto bid from the Summit then we are headed to a #4 seed...it's just our lot in life.....perhaps a SLIM chance for a 3 and we run the table to finish 46-11 but the lack of quality Top 50 wins just hurts ORU too much......Bring on OSU or Arkansas!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORU40 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 Otis, love the analysis and I'll try to keep the name calling to a minimum. But I have to agree with the Eagleman, I just think the Summit league weakness and our geographical location and the number of good teams in our area almost guarantee a 4 seed. But the way we are hitting I like our chances... bring on the pigs and the pokes!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis 83 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORU40 said: I just think the Summit league weakness and our geographical location and the number of good teams in our area almost guarantee a 4 seed. But the way we are hitting I like our chances... bring on the pigs and the pokes!! I can't disagree with any of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 DBU vs UTSA tonight....both Top 25...now that is some seriously good college baseball....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUSwagger Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, theeagleman5 said: DBU vs UTSA tonight....both Top 25...now that is some seriously good college baseball....... The Baptist vs. The Birds…….. Random Facts: Former CFB Coaching legend Larry Coker coached football at UTSA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 If ORU ends up 46-11 I think they will deserve to get a 3 seed. The regional nature of the placement of teams in local area regionals means ORU might still get a 4 seed. I think a few things could change over the next couple of weeks that might open up a 3 seed for ORU in that scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted May 13, 2023 Author Share Posted May 13, 2023 9 hours ago, Otis 83 said: PS: If you disagree with my analysis please try your best not to make it personal and start calling me names. We’re better than that...at least I like to think that we are. "Otis, you ignorant slut." 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bogus Smith Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 19 hours ago, Otis 83 said: Well I needed a distraction to keep me out of the fray of that rather testy, and at times unChristlike, discussion about the 23-34 basketball schedule. So I locked myself in my sports laboratory to do some analysis on the baseball tournament seeding predictions. Here are the results of this very complex modeling. Looking at several NCCA projections, every 4 seed is an auto bid. This reinforces Old Titan’s conjecture that the selection committee is very unlikely to put a Power 5 at large team in the 4 spot. Using those same projections, only two 3 seeds are auto qualifiers, Wofford and Northeastern. I took the schedules of those two schools and ORU and put them in Excel with the current RPI table for a little analysis. It is hard to quibble with Northeastern getting a 3 seed ahead of ORU. They are 6-0 against teams in the top 50 RPI. Wofford is a little puzzling to be honest. Granted they have a 55 RPI probably because their conference isn’t as horrifically bad as the Summit. But if you look at their record against the top 50 they are 2-4. ORU is 4-5 by the way. Now I’m leaving data and going to subjective analysis. I think Wofford is getting 3 seed consideration over the Golden Eagles, in part, because the committee likes to make the regionals, well regional. They aren’t very inclined to move an auto qualifier from the southeast to be a 4 seed in Stillwater or Fayetteville when they can do that to ORU. My view is that given how loaded our broader region is in college baseball talent, it may even be harder for the Golden Eagles to be a 3 seed than if we were in a less talented area of the country. There probably isn’t a path for ORU to knock Wofford out of the 3 seed. It would be an even longer shot to knock out Northeastern. Maybe if there is an upset in one of those conference tournaments. Let’s take a look at the Southern Conference where Wofford is a member. What’s perplexing to me, and I admit I don’t spend a lot of time following this conference, is that Wofford currently sits in 3rd place yet we find them as the Southern Conference auto qualifier in so many of these projections. Samford, with an RPI of 87, sits in first place and Mercer, with an RPI of 130, sits in second place. Wofford is 2-1 against Samford and has yet to play Mercer. Apparently in the Southern Conference teams only play one 3 game series against conference opponents. Apparently the prognosticators assume Wofford is going to sweep Mercer and The Citadel to end the season and move up to first place and win the tournament. It would take an analysis of all the 4 seed auto qualifiers to see if ORU has a chance at a 3 seed if Samford or Mercer upset Wofford in the tournament. I’ll update this thread if I find the time to work on that in the lab. PS: If you disagree with my analysis please try your best not to make it personal and start calling me names. We’re better than that...at least I like to think that we are. Otis, you get the TrueBlue82 Medal of Honor for your thorough statistical analysis and conclusions to why ORU will be one of the most-feared #4 seeds in the NCAA baseball tournament. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 10 hours ago, Old Titan said: "Otis, you ignorant slut." Some people just can't resist the temptation . . . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis 83 Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Bogus Smith said: Otis, you get the TrueBlue82 Medal of Honor for your thorough statistical analysis and conclusions to why ORU will be one of the most-feared #4 seeds in the NCAA baseball tournament. Bogus, thank you! I am so honored. I never allowed myself to dream that I could ever receive this prestigious honor. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Otis 83 said: Bogus, thank you! I am so honored. I never allowed myself to dream that I could ever receive this prestigious honor. A worthy recipient! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmh8286 Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 3 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said: A worthy recipient! And how deserving you are to have a medal named in your honor!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis 83 Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 4 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said: A worthy recipient! Thank you TrueBlue82 that means a lot to me. I’m going to ask the mods If they can add the medal next to my donor ribbon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 On 5/12/2023 at 1:03 PM, Otis 83 said: I think Wofford is getting 3 seed consideration over the Golden Eagles, in part, because the committee likes to make the regionals, well regional. They aren’t very inclined to move an auto qualifier from the southeast to be a 4 seed in Stillwater or Fayetteville when they can do that to ORU. My view is that given how loaded our broader region is in college baseball talent, it may even be harder for the Golden Eagles to be a 3 seed than if we were in a less talented area of the country. I agree that the NCAA does like to keep the tournaments "regional" wherever possible, but I actually think that this could play in ORU's favor this year. Here's why... Stillwater is a likely destination for the Golden Eagles, should ORU win the SL tournament and OSU earn the right to host. OSU is currently projected as a "lower tier" top seed (most projections have the Pokes ranked in the range of 12-15 out of the top 16 that earn hosting sites). Using the example as if OSU was ranked 14, a "perfect" tournament would assign the 14th, 19th, 46th and 51st ranked teams to that regional. Of course, the NCAA is never that precise, but it does appear that they make an effort to match up a low one seed with a high two seed (or vice versa) and to follow in that example, a low three seed with a high four seed. For this reason, I think that it is unlikely that ORU would be assigned to the other "close-by" regional site in Fayetteville, as the Hogs are considered a top 5 ranked national seed - and should therefore have the opportunity to face a "low" #4 seed. But, back to the Stillwater example... I think that we would all agree that ORU should be considered as a "high" 4 or possibly a "low" 3, and the Stillwater regional will need both, as the "perfect" bracket would require the 46th (low 3) and 51st (high 4) ranked teams. I think the committee would question whether it was fair to give OSU (as a #1 seed) a first round matchup against a #4 seeded team that they played twice during the season, and LOST both games. But, in order to keep the tournament "regional", they could easily move ORU to a "low" #3 seed in Stillwater and bring in a #4 seed from somewhere else. There are lots of moving parts in play between now and "Selection Monday", but ORU just needs to keep winning - or all of this speculation won't matter a bit! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmg1984 Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Up to #12 http://baseballnews.com/collegiate-baseball-div-1-poll-5-15-23/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
74Titan Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, jmg1984 said: Up to #12 http://baseballnews.com/collegiate-baseball-div-1-poll-5-15-23/ Rankings don't win ballgames. Other polls put ORU much lower. Between the SEC and ACC conferences there are plenty of teams better than ORU. Plus better teams in other conferences as well. Playing in the Summit League hardly prepares the team for the quality opponents they'll face in the NCAA tournament (assuming that the Golden Eagles win the Summit League Tournament). Little depth in the starting rotation. Cade Denton is good. Hard to judge hitting against mostly weak pitchers. Good pitching trumps hitters almost every time. The Titan teams of '78-early 80's had both stellar pitching (i.e. Ron Meridith, Mike Moore, Todd Burns) and power hitters (i.e. George Bjorkman, Kelvin Torve, and Tom Nieto) to name a few. All of these eventually made it to the Majors. They made their mark at ORU, while playing whoever they could. Meridiith threw a one-hitter against North Carolina in the 1978 College World Series. The boys were ahead of Arizona State in the 9th inning, until Bob Horner (years with the Atlanta Braves) hit a grand slam. They then lost to Miami in a close game (3-1?). Players are bigger and stronger now, but it remains to be seen if as overall talented as 40+ years ago. If the Golden Eagles win the league and regional tournaments, this observation will be reevaluated. If they make it to and win a super regional-thereby earning a trip to Omaha, a glad self-correction shall commence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORob1 Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 I'm struggling to buy the #12 ranking when none of the other/major polls have us in the Top 25. There might be a credibility problem with that particular poll. I hope they're right but.....c'mon, this ranking doesn't make sense, does it? I'm actually kind of surprised the AD would run with it, but I'm certainly enjoying it with my co-workers! : ) Go Big Blue! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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