Summit League Baseball 2022

[TrueBlue82]

We are 25% through the 2022 Summit season, and ORU has put itself in a precarious position for winning the Summit regular season title.  It is pretty obvious that NDSU, ORU, Omaha and SDSU will be the four teams coming to Tulsa in May for the conference tournament, as Western Illinois, Northern Colorado and St. Thomas are all among the worst 10% of D-1 baseball teams (RPI of 280+).

Amongst the four contenders, ORU already drew the short stick from the schedule makers.  With the uneven schedule, each Summit team plays every other team in one three-game series - and then plays a second series against two teams (completing a home-and-home).  NDSU (surprisingly???) won the lottery by drawing Northern Colorado and Western Illinois for its two extra series.  SDSU and Omaha both drew ORU and St. Thomas, and ORU was assigned Omaha and SDSU.  As a result, ORU started off the Summit season with a significant disadvantage compared to its closest rivals, with five of its eight series against contenders, while NDSU only faces contenders in three series. 

As an example, assume that each of the contenders would win 2 of 3 at home in head-to-head against other contenders - and when facing the three RPI 280+ teams, they would sweep at home and win 2 of 3 on the road.  Due to the unbalanced schedule, the final standings would be:

NDSU 17-7

Omaha 16-8

SDSU 16-8

ORU 15-9

As a result, ORU can't afford just to "stay even", but must perform better than the other contenders in order to prevail in the regular season standings - and earn the right to remain as host for the 2023 conference tournament. 

The home series sweep of SDSU was a nice win, but the home series loss to Omaha was DEVASTATING.  Fortunately, there is still plenty of time in the season to recover, but each future series will be critical for ORU.  In their first two series, NDSU won 5 of 6 on the road against the "bottom-feeders" to extend their lead even further, so they will be VERY difficult to catch unless ORU sweeps the Bizon in late April.  And, ORU will also likely need to sweep the Mavs in Omaha to pull out the regular season title.  Finally, if ORU is not leading the pack by May 1, don't expect any late season heroics, as ORU ends the season AT Omaha and AT SDSU, while NDSU closes with two home series against UNC and Western.

This team has proven that it has the pitching, defense and offense to pull this off, and they should still be the odds-on favorite to win the conference tournament in Tulsa this May.  But, with the challenging schedule, they do not have the luxury of having another series like this weekend if they expect to win the regular season title and the #1 seed.      

 

 

 

[Dr. Cornelius]

[Bogus Smith]

Spot-on TrueBlue 82! We do not have the ability to make hits  when runners are in scoring position and leave way too many RISP  The mental makeup of the players is just as important (more important, many will say) than their physical skills. We need some remedial training during this off-time on the situational/mental aspects of the game. 

[MrsSmith]

On 4/4/2022 at 2:20 PM, TrueBlue82 said:

We are 25% through the 2022 Summit season, and ORU has put itself in a precarious position for winning the Summit regular season title.  It is pretty obvious that NDSU, ORU, Omaha and SDSU will be the four teams coming to Tulsa in May for the conference tournament, as Western Illinois, Northern Colorado and St. Thomas are all among the worst 10% of D-1 baseball teams (RPI of 280+).  

Maybe Northern Colorado is figuring something out.  They won yesterday over Omaha 1-0.  UNC had 10 hits and Omaha 3.  It'll be interesting to see how the series turns out.

[ORUalum]

this is sad

[TrueBlue82]

HUGE weekend series at JLJ this weekend.  Whichever team wins this three-game series will not only move into first place and become the prohibitive favorite to win the regular season title, but will also gain the all-important tiebreaker advantage for tournament seeding.  NDSU will come to Tulsa with a lot of positive momentum, having just taken two of three in Omaha against the same team that took two of three from ORU in Tulsa a few weeks back.  Should be an excellent matchup.  It will be key for ORU to take an advantage in the early innings, as NDSU has quite a bit of firepower and the ability to score multiple runs in short order.  And, they have three legitimate starters, and a closer who is yet to give up an earned run and has a gaudy 17/2 SO/BB ratio in 13.1 innings pitched.  Should be a GREAT weekend series!

[Otis 83]

On 4/21/2022 at 9:41 PM, TrueBlue82 said:

HUGE weekend series at JLJ this weekend.  Whichever team wins this three-game series will not only move into first place and become the prohibitive favorite to win the regular season title, but will also gain the all-important tiebreaker advantage for tournament seeding.  NDSU will come to Tulsa with a lot of positive momentum, having just taken two of three in Omaha against the same team that took two of three from ORU in Tulsa a few weeks back.  Should be an excellent matchup.  It will be key for ORU to take an advantage in the early innings, as NDSU has quite a bit of firepower and the ability to score multiple runs in short order.  And, they have three legitimate starters, and a closer who is yet to give up an earned run and has a gaudy 17/2 SO/BB ratio in 13.1 innings pitched.  Should be a GREAT weekend series!

I just want to tell you how much I appreciate your insightful analysis. Thanks!

[TrueBlue82]

ORU received a small gift from Mother Nature this weekend, with the rainout of NDSU games at SDSU.  Although NDSU holds the tiebreaker over ORU due to the 2-1 series win in Tulsa, it is now unlikely that the tiebreaker will come into play, since NDSU and ORU will play an unequal number of games.  ORU still has a VERY difficult road ahead, but if they win out (or lose the same number of games as NDSU for the remainder of the season), then the Golden Eagles will win the regular season title.  Of course, NDSU has only six games left, all at home, and three each against the bottom of the Summit barrel - Western Illinois and Northern Colorado, so the Bizon will likely win out.  ORU gets St Thomas at home this weekend, then travels to Omaha and SDSU.  Just win, baby!!!

[Otis 83]

On 5/2/2022 at 5:31 PM, TrueBlue82 said:

ORU received a small gift from Mother Nature this weekend, with the rainout of NDSU games at SDSU.  Although NDSU holds the tiebreaker over ORU due to the 2-1 series  in Tulsa, it is now unlikely that the tiebreaker will come into play, since NDSU and ORU will play an unequal number of games.  ORU still has a VERY difficult road ahead, but if they win out (or lose the same number of games as NDSU for the remainder of the season), then the Golden Eagles will win the regular season title.  Of course, NDSU has only six games left, all at home, and three each against the bottom of the Summit barrel - Western Illinois and Northern Colorado, so the Bizon will likely win out.  ORU gets St Thomas at home this weekend, then travels to Omaha and SDSU.  Just win, baby!!!

And this is why I visit this message board as often as I can.  A couple of days ago, I started looking at the standings and the remaining schedules trying to figure out the possibilities.  Then I said to myself "Why are you doing this?  You'll probably get it wrong.  TrueBlue82 is going to do the analysis and give you the insight you seek."  So I went back to work.

[Old Titan]

Still waiting for an explanation for this particular bit of schedule gerrymandering from the Summit League this season:

• NDSU has 12 games scheduled vs. bottom-dwellers Northern Colorado and Western Illinois (which will end being more than HALF their league results), while ORU only had 6, and all on the road.
• ORU has 12 games scheduled vs. perennial upper-division contenders Omaha and SDSU, while NDSU played them only 4 times in 6 scheduled contests.

Which all likely adds up to NDSU being the top seed in this year's tournament, and earning the right to host next year's tournament.

But remember:  Frost Belt bias in the Summit League is just a myth... #smh

[theeagleman5]

Sure....Frost Belt bias in the Summit League is just a myth.....

[ORUalum]

1 hour ago, Old Titan said:

Still waiting for an explanation for this particular bit of schedule gerrymandering from the Summit League this season:

• NDSU has 12 games scheduled vs. bottom-dwellers Northern Colorado and Western Illinois (which will end being more than HALF their league results), while ORU only had 6, and all on the road.
• ORU has 12 games scheduled vs. perennial upper-division contenders Omaha and SDSU, while NDSU played them only 4 times in 6 scheduled contests.

Which all likely adds up to NDSU being the top seed in this year's tournament, and earning the right to host next year's tournament.

But remember:  Frost Belt bias in the Summit League is just a myth... #smh

it should not matter.....based on location, facilities and tradition, ORU should dominate this horrible baseball league

blaming the schedule maker and twisting the remaining schedule 20 different ways to figure out an outcome where ORU ekes out a conf championship is just plain sad.

and what happens per chance if they manage to make a regional?  does anyone believe ORU has a legitimate shot to win multiple games in a regional?

is this steady decline of the program that has historically been ORU's most consistent winner acceptable to the ORU brass?

 

[Old Titan]

“Lighten up, Francis!”

NDSU is actually a decent program; they’re the defending tournament champion and they won a game their regional last season. 

They don’t need any help from the league office in terms of scheduling, regardless of whether ORU has their act together.

[TrueBlue82]

4 hours ago, ORUalum said:

and what happens per chance if they manage to make a regional?  does anyone believe ORU has a legitimate shot to win multiple games in a regional?

Sign me up.  I fully believe that this team has proven that they possess enough talent to have a legitimate chance to win multiple games in a regional, with the possibility of advancing to a super-regional (the equivalent of ORUMBB’s Sweet Sixteen run).  It’s the INCONSISTENCY that is driving most of us crazy, but if this team puts it all together during the right weekend, I’m confident that they can beat anyone out there.  They could also finish 0-2 in the Summit Championship, and watch another Summit team dogpile on the infield at JLJ.  

[TrueBlue82]

Down to the final series of the conference season, and ORU is fairly locked into the #2 seed.  ORU can still finish 1, 2 or 3, but it would take some unlikely scenarios for the Eagles to finish anything but #2. 

NDSU's magic number for the regular season title is TWO (combination of NDSU wins and ORU losses).  With the Bizon hosting Western Illinois this weekend, they are prohibitive favorites to win at least two-of-three, so it probably won't matter how ORU fares with SDSU.  Really sad (for many reasons) to see the Summit Tourney shift to Fargo for 2023.

ORU needs one win in the series in Brookings to lock down the #2 seed, but would hold onto the #3 seed even if swept by the Rabbits.

SDSU's magic number to hold off Omaha for the #3 seed is also TWO (combination of SDSU wins and Omaha losses).  But, Omaha could easily sweep St. Thomas, which would then require SDSU to win two of three from ORU to keep the #3 seed, or else ORU and Omaha would play in the tournament first round.

One thing we know for sure...  ORU's opponent in Wednesday's tournament opener will be either be SDSU or Omaha. so it will be a very familiar opponent, having played both of them within the past two weeks.  The Summit tourney weekend should be well worth the price of admission!