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ORU at UMKC


ORUTerry

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I really appreciate your statistical analysis that you provided on Carlos, EM.  At least my eyes weren't totally deceiving me on the apparent poorer play from him this year.  LOL.  I too hope his offensive game improves. 

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KC has played a tough schedule and lost to some Big Ten teams but beat Missouri on the road.  They do not really have any bad losses, but SDSU really blasted them by 32!  The one stat that bothers me is that they are holding opponents to 22 percent from three.  Which of course is ORU's bread and butter.  The Eagles are going to need to be able to drive the ball or find Lufile for some easy layups/dunks to win this one.  They cannot just live by the three on Saturday night and expect to win.

Looking at that blowout loss to SDSU and two things jump out.  KC was outrebounded by 15 and were -17 in points at the free throw line.  So, the moral of the story is: crash the glass and draw fouls and KC is very beatable.

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32 minutes ago, Keenan Henderson said:

KC has played a tough schedule and lost to some Big Ten teams but beat Missouri on the road.  They do not really have any bad losses, but SDSU really blasted them by 32! 

As the season goes on, I am becoming convinced that South Dakota State is simply really, really good.  No one in the league may give them a close game before they arrive in Tulsa in late February for their rematch with ORU.  Playing them so close in Brookings is hopefully a litmus test for how the Golden Eagles compare to UMKC.

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UMKC is holding conference opponents to 29.8% from 3pt and 48.6% in total. They are shooting 28.4% from 3pt for the season and 38.5% in total.

Link to UMKC stats:  https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/missouri-kansas-city/2022.html

They also seem to foul a lot - which is not surprising given the hard type of defense that they play. The Roos cannot win a shoot out (they do not shoot the ball well) but will try to grind out the game. I suspect that they will hold the ball and not shoot until late in the shot clock.

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Also, it appears that Josiah Allick (6'8" Jr) has been sick/injured and missed 3 of the last 4 games. He missed the games against South Dakota and SDSU before Christmas, but played against Omaha on Monday and missed Tuesday's game against Baptist Bible. In Monday's game he played 23 minutes but did not score while grabbing 3 rebounds along with 3 assists and 2 turnovers. On the year he is averaging 10.6 points per game along with 5.3 rebounds.

 

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2 hours ago, Dr. BB said:

I really appreciate your statistical analysis that you provided on Carlos, EM.  At least my eyes weren't totally deceiving me on the apparent poorer play from him this year.  LOL.  I too hope his offensive game improves. 

Carlos has been an active shooter from beyond the arc this year, as he has found himself with an open shot on many occasions.  In fact, over 50% of his shots attempted over the course of the season were three pointers.  He just hasn’t made many of those shots (some conspiracy theorists might even believe that the opponent’s defensive strategy was to leave Carlos open from three, knowing that he would miss 80%+ of those shots). 😉

However, I noticed a significant shift during the game against St Thomas.   Carlos attempted one three-pointer (and missed), and three shots in the paint.  He was open from three on several occasions, but chose to drive the ball (and shoot or kick out) rather than attempt a three. Now, one game is not an appropriate sample size, but I am hoping that the coaching staff has turned off Carlos’ “green light” for now.  I really appreciate Carlos’ effort and strong defensive play, but he was becoming a significant liability on the offensive end of the court.  We have SO many VERY GOOD to ELITE three point shooters on this team, and there’s no reason for Carlos to force a three (even when open), when a better opportunity will come later in the possession.

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20 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said:

...but I am hoping that the coaching staff has turned off Carlos’ “green light” for now.

I don't remember what exactly Mills said, but I got the impression from the last radio show that nobody on the team has a "red light" or "green light" from anywhere on the floor. I think he even mentioned that guys can shoot from half court if they think it's a good shot (though they don't encourage that). I couldn't quite figure what exactly that meant (or how in the world that would work), but it sounds like they don't have hard and fast rules for the guys in terms of where they can/can't shoot. 

So if Carlos IS restricting his 3 point shooting, it might be his own choice and not at the direction of the coaching staff.

1) Good for him for having self awareness and keeping pride out of his game 

2) Losing confidence in your shot can be the worst thing for a guy. Hopefully he hasn't lost it completely. 

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Where Carlos lacks confidence is in his drives to the basket.  How many times have we seen him slash to the hole, only to pull-up at the block and pivot desperately, looking to pass the ball out?

But against St. Thomas, he knew he had a size advantage, and he was more aggressive all the way to the rim. 

He needs to do more of that against everyone.  The proof is evident that he can be successful driving against even elite defenders:  just check him out in any of the NCAA games last year; he had no fear then going to the hole.  

The dude is 6'5" with some hops, I don't know if he realizes just how many guys he could elevate over if he tried.  He needs to take some tips from Trey Phipps, who (bless his heart) will drive all the way to the rack on ANYONE. 🤣

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UMKC arena has a capacity of 1500.....guessing there won't likely be half that in attendence tomorrow night.......TheEagleman is fairly confident of victory......ESPN Says 53.2%....TheEagleman says 93.2%....:circle-logoi:

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UMKC has that "really impressive" win over Mizzou....well newsflash....the Tigers STINK.....they are below .500.....ORU's schedule much better.....Colorado State now 12-1 but will admit OSU isn't looking good lately.....that was a game ORU should have taken.....TheEagleman knows UMKC will be tough at home but still a contest the Good Guys need to win.....i will give my final prediction once I see the Vegas Line.....:tb-blue:

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I'm with you, eagleman. Unless we have guys out due to COVID, we win by 12-16. I wouldn't bet this one, though - we probably won't know if anyone is in COVID protocols until game time. 

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UMKC plays tough. hard-nosed defense and takes pride in contesting three-point shots. Their stats indicate that the Roos are a weak shooting team. If we play good defense against them (need Carlos in the line up) then we don't need to shoot a tremendous percentage to win the game. If we shoot the ball well - it could be a blow out. I look for Lufile to have another good game. Not sure they have anyone to match up with him. Just keep feeding him in the post until they collapse on him - and then get open looks on the perimeter.

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Allick was pre-season all-conference, and has not played in a Conference game yet.  Hoping to see him back on Saturday WITH Arkel Lamar ( who was out prior to Allick’s injury).

Extremely excited to watch ORU come and compete in KC!

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24 minutes ago, KCRoo fan said:

Allick was pre-season all-conference, and has not played in a Conference game yet.  Hoping to see him back on Saturday WITH Arkel Lamar ( who was out prior to Allick’s injury).

Extremely excited to watch ORU come and compete in KC!

Should be an interesting match-up.  With big guard Carlos Jurgens possibly out with covid, ORU would most likely go with waterbug transfer Issac McBride, which would present diminutive KC point Evan Gilyard with a quandry:  which lightning-quick ORU guard should he cover - McBride or Abmas?

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ORU is -4.5...O/U at 142.5....:shield-logo:

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ORU is taking a student fan bus to the game so there will be some loud ORU fans in the house tomorrow night.

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1 hour ago, ORUJason said:

ORU is taking a student fan bus to the game so there will be some loud ORU fans in the house tomorrow night.

That’s awesome!  I had hoped to make the trip to take in the game with my daughter and son-in-law who live in KC, but had to change plans at the last minute.

Ought to be a fun trip; reminds me of the charters we used to organize back in the “Ken & Caleb” days. Bussing to Lawrence, KS for the big win over #3 Kansas in “The Phog” ranks right up there on the ol’ bucket list.  

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