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KenPom's Preseason Prediction for ORU


Old Titan
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Like him or not, Kem Pomeroy (or, "KenPom" as he is affectionately known by analytic-heads across the college basketball landscape) is amazingly accurate when it comes to forecasting.

Here's his preseason prognostication for the Golden Eagles:  a record of 19-10(ish), finishing third in the Summit League regular season:

 

 

KenPom Preseason ORU.jpeg

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Sounds good as long as ORU continues to win in March and make another NCAA tournament run!

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TheEagleman agrees that KenPom is one of the best....can't dispute his stats but have a feeling that ORU may win one or two of those projected losses.....just wondering....after the renovations what is the new official capacity of Mabee Center? :circle-logoi:

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I would guess the new capacity is probably 9700 or so since 1-2 seats were removed per row and the additional suites removed some seats.  Good question.  Prior to the changes made several years ago (adding suites and changing the seating in the press area of the arena) the original capacity was 10,575.

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Currently, capacity is probably under 7,000, since much of the Upper Bowl has no seats yet.

I'm guessing they're all still in shipping containers on a boat anchored off the Port of Long Beach.  Hopefully, they'll get here in time for the conference season. 🤪

Suez Canal Cargo Ship GIF by GIPHY News

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A couple of observations on the kenpom data...

First, the table offers the disclaimer that "projected record is based on the combined probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game projections".  In ORU's case, the individual game projections would forecast a 21-8 season record, and 14-4 in the Summit.  This discrepancy is due primarily to the fact that ORU has several games (4) in the 50-60% win category, and only one in the 40-50% win projection (the "toss-up" zone).  Therefore, Kenpom would project that the results in those five games will play a huge role in determining the Golden Eagles' final record.

The key five games are against Tulsa (at home) and four Summit League games (NDSU at home, and USD/WIU/UMKC on the road).  Interestingly, all four of the key Summit League games fall in the first half of the Summit season, including the Summit opener at USD.  As a result, ORU can't afford to "ramp up" throughout the season, but needs to be in top form at the start of the conference season in order to be a contender for the Summit regular season title (noted that while the regular season title is a goal, the true value of a season will be found in three games in Sioux Falls in March).

Of course, these pre-season projections are highly speculative, as it is difficult to gauge the impact of transfers and newcomers on a team.  Kenpom will have a much better projection on the Summit season six weeks from now, as the non-conference season winds down.  But, it is very probable that those five key games are still classified as "key" as the projections shift.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, TrueBlue82 said:

(noted that while the regular season title is a goal, the true value of a season will be found in three games in Sioux Falls in March).

Safe to say, though, that finishing first in the regular season, and thus avoiding one of this season's "Big Three" schools in the semi's, is a worthy goal?

(that being said, ORU pretty much debunked several previously-held seeding axioms last season by defeating a No. 1 Dakota school in the semi's, and a No. 3 Dakota school in the finals, the likes of which had never been done since those Dakota schools joined the league)

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55 minutes ago, Old Titan said:

Safe to say, though, that finishing first in the regular season, and thus avoiding one of this season's "Big Three" schools in the semi's, is a worthy goal?

(that being said, ORU pretty much debunked several previously-held seeding axioms last season by defeating a No. 1 Dakota school in the semi's, and a No. 3 Dakota school in the finals, the likes of which had never been done since those Dakota schools joined the league)

Winning the regular season title is ALWAYS a worthy goal - but still unsatisfying unless it also leads to the tournament title.  

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1 hour ago, Old Titan said:

Safe to say, though, that finishing first in the regular season, and thus avoiding one of this season's "Big Three" schools in the semi's, is a worthy goal?

(that being said, ORU pretty much debunked several previously-held seeding axioms last season by defeating a No. 1 Dakota school in the semi's, and a No. 3 Dakota school in the finals, the likes of which had never been done since those Dakota schools joined the league)

It will be business as usual this year with crowds back in the stands.  Maybe this will be the year for a ORU fan bus to Sioux Falls.

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Sports Illustrated's ranking of all D1 teams has ORU slightly higher than KenPom does, at #125. Second in the Summit behind #114 SDSU. Here's their ORU mention:

"And of course, any fans of the sport are familiar with Oral Roberts (No. 125) and Max Abmas, the overwhelming favorite to lead the nation in scoring as a junior. Abmas won’t have running mate Kevin Obanor alongside him this year after Obanor departed for Texas Tech this offseason."

https://www.si.com/college/2021/11/02/ncaa-basketball-rankings-every-team-daily-cover

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