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Summit League Recap


TrueBlue82

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I was looking at the Summit League calendar, and was intrigued at how "back-loaded" the conference schedule is.  Almost all of the matchups in January are between the contenders and the non-contenders, and all the heavyweight match-ups are scheduled for February.  It was mentioned in another thread that ORU will likely be favored in all of its remaining January match-ups, and then runs into the gauntlet in February.  It's the same for virtually all of the contenders, and therefore, it is likely that the standings will experience great separation by the end of January.  In fact, I reviewed the predicted results at the warrennolan.com site, and here are the projected Summit League standings as of January 31, 2021 based upon their predictions:

ORU 8-0

SDSU 8-0

NDSU 8-2

USD 6-2

UMKC 7-3

============================ 4 game spread!

UND 3-7

Omaha 0-8

Denver 0-8

WIU 0-10

 

So, in order to be a contender, you MUST win these January match-ups against the "rest of the league", and then be prepared for a very challenging February.  

The schedule this weekend is quite bland, with ORU, SDSU and NDSU all playing at home against weaker competition.  The only intriguing matchup (barring a major upset) will be USD at UMKC, where the Coyotes will be looking to steal a win (or two) on the road.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Big overtime win for UND over NDSU tonight to earn a split for the weekend.  At 5-1, with home series coming up against both ORU and SDSU later this season, the Bison are serious contenders for the regular season title.  But UND’s win will at least slow down NDSU from running away with the title. 

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The Fighting Hawks can play as we saw last weekend at Mabee Center.... TheEagleman is not surprised that they beat NDSU tonight....these back to back games create a totally different dynamic in the Summit League....Any one of the top 4 teams can win the regular season title and with the tournament now to be played in a smaller  empty arena in Sioux Falls...well... ORU is certainly capable stealing the tournament bid from one of the Dakota schools....🏀😉🏀

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Hopefully the Dakota teams will continue to beat each other up and have all 1-1 splits.  SDSU would still be the favorite as long as they stay healthy.  ORU can beat the other Dakota teams but not sure about the Jackrabbits.  The problem in the tourney for the Eagles is that they will have to play some good defense for three games to win it all and that is just not their m.o.

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Seeing this team play a 5 minute stretch here or a half of solid defense there is a step in the right direction so I am encouraged that they might be able to continue to improve defensively.

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20 hours ago, theeagleman5 said:

The Fighting Hawks can play as we saw last weekend at Mabee Center.... TheEagleman is not surprised that they beat NDSU tonight....these back to back games create a totally different dynamic in the Summit League....Any one of the top 4 teams can win the regular season title and with the tournament now to be played in a smaller  empty arena in Sioux Falls...well... ORU is certainly capable stealing the tournament bid from one of the Dakota schools....🏀😉🏀

UND has a tall lineup which caused us problems - especially in the first game at the Mabee Center.  Hopefully we will be opposite them come tournament time.  Looking forward to see how we handle NDSU and SDSU this season.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Thought this statistic on the two-game series the Summit is using this year was interesting...

There have been 21 series so far in the Summit season (24 were scheduled, three were cancelled due to COVID).  In a "perfect parity world", half of the series would be sweeps and half would be splits.  Of course, home court advantage would assume that there would be slightly more sweeps than splits, with home team sweeps skewing the average.

In the 21 series, there have been 12 sweeps and 9 splits.  However, somewhat surprisingly, the home team has won six of the sweeps and the visiting team has countered with six sweeps (two of these by ORU) of their own.

In a closer look, I think that the number of sweeps has been skewed higher because most of the matchups so far this season (15 of the 21) have been the top four vs. the bottom five, and the gap between #4 and #5 is significant.  In those 15 matchups, there have been 11 sweeps (all won by the top four teams, whether home or away) and 4 splits.  In the six top vs. top and bottom vs. bottom matchups, there have been 5 splits and 1 sweep, with the only sweep being this past weekend's road sweep by WIU at Omaha.

Since the next eight Summit series over the next two weekends are all top vs. top or bottom vs. bottom, we will likely see more splits than sweeps... but those teams that can pull off the sweeps will definitely rise in the standings.

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

So, as the Summit season comes to its final two games, it appears that the 5-8 seeds are locked in, and the one/two seeds (between USD/SDSU) and three/four seeds (between NDSU/ORU) will depend on the outcome of the two remaining games.

Locked in:

5.       UND

6.       KC

7.       WIU

8.       OMA

 

If USD/ORU win:

1.       USD

2.       SDSU

3.       ORU

4.       NDSU

If USD/WIU win:

1.       USD

2.       SDSU

3.       NDSU

4.       ORU

If NDS wins (ORU/WIU is then irrelevant to seeding):

1.       SDSU

2.       USD

3.       NDSU

4.       ORU

 

If I had to choose ORU's best path to the final, I'd personally want to face UND in the first round and USD in the second.  UND has been sporadic throughout the season, and ORU played USD down to the last shot in Vermillion (and the Yotes may be down a key player for the tourney).  But, this scenario only plays out if USD beats NDSU and ORU loses to WIU in Sunday's games.  If USD and ORU both win (as favored), ORU would play pesky UMKC in the always-tough 3/6 matchup and then likely face the Jackrabbits in the semis.  That's a rough path to Tuesday night's final...

Of course, these scenarios do not include the "what-ifs"  for any last-second game cancellation due to COVID exposure. But, that would never happen... 😉

 

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Now that the regular season is over, it will be interesting to see whether Max and KO both earn first-team Summit League honors this season.   KO is the only Summit player to be named POW three times, and Max has been dominant in Summit play and is the likely leader in the clubhouse for POY honors.  I like their chances to both make the first team (which I assume will be the first time ORU has two first-teamers since the Green/Tutt era).  

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2 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said:

Now that the regular season is over, it will be interesting to see whether Max and KO both earn first-team Summit League honors this season.

If they don't, it's a crime.  Obanor is the only player in the conference to average a double-double in league play (19.0 points, 10.5 rebounds in 15 contests).

They name 6 players to the 1st team.  Stanly Umude and A.J. Plitzuweit of USD are presumably locks, but the remaining two spots are anyone's guess between these four candidates:  Douglas Wilson and Baylor Scheierman from SDSU, Rocky Kreuser from NDSU, and Filip Rebraca from UND.

If anyone other than those eight guys is on the first team, I'll be stunned.

 

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