ORU-OU

[ORUJason]

Seriously, I am impressed with the level of talent that Coach Mills has recruited.  We have a lot of youth on this team that will improve over this year and a lot of depth.
 

I believe we have enough talent to “go big” in the Summit League if you use DJ Weaver as a small forward/wing man.  We now have enough depth that against some smaller teams we could use a lineup like Lufile, Obanor, Weaver, Abmas and Glasper.  We could sub in Clover for Lufile and impose our will down low.  Lacis can sub in for Obanor or Weaver.  Kareem Thompson, Carlos Juergens, and D Mauria Jones can sub in for Max and/or RJ and/or give you a 3 guard lineup.  That is the likely 10 man rotation for this season with other players battling in practice to steal playing time from D Mauria, Carlos, and Clover.

 

Once you impose your will down low then the kick outs to wide open 3 point shooters open up and keep defenses honest.  Have your 3 point shooters drive the basket more often to draw fouls or look for more kick outs.  Also run some set plays to get a few easy buckets here and there, especially out of timeouts and run some screens to get Max some wide open 3 point looks.  Play the high low game more like Rocky Walls and Tim Gill or Caleb Green and Ken Tutt used to.  Also teach the team how to execute a pick and roll.

 

I understand that some of these concepts seem a little old school, but 3 point shooting with a run and gun tempo will cause you to lose some games that you could have won on nights where the 3 point shooters are cold, like tonight vs OU.

 

The Dakota schools are generally well coached with a lot of shooters.  I think we now have some shooters who can match up with them and I hope that the quality of the coaching will match up as well.

[ORUJason]

The four guard lineup

Big men wasted on the bench

Rebounds disappear

 

Note:  A general lament about college basketball...

 

[eagle88]

ORU definitely lives and dies by the 3! Although they show a glimmer of hope at times they will have to get the bigs healthy and improve a lot to be a top 3 team in the Summit. I am encouraged by the level of talent ORU has but feel currently the coaching does not match the talent.

[Dr. Cornelius]

It's hard to gauge ORU against Oklahoma. ORU is 2-15 all time and haven't beaten the Sooners since 1976.

This style of play just doesn't work at this level. There's zero inside presence (offensive or defensive) which doesn't point towards success in the Summit. The reason Summit opponents are good 3-point shooting teams is because they can drive and kick or play the interior game... something ORU doesn't. Maybe all the post players are injured or being reserved for conference season?

Right now I would think ORU struggles to finish in top half of the league unless rebounding and defense improve dramatically.

 

[Old Titan]

4 hours ago, eagle88 said:

ORU definitely lives and dies by the 3! Although they show a glimmer of hope at times they will have to get the bigs healthy and improve a lot to be a top 3 team in the Summit. I am encouraged by the level of talent ORU has but feel currently the coaching does not match the talent.

Exactly. 

If you’re talented enough, you can overcome bad coaching in a lot of situations, but typically not against superior talent OR well-coached teams that get the most out of arguably less-talented rosters.

I personally love teams that fall into the latter category, such as Bill Self’s clubs at ORU, Tubby Smith’s TU teams, etc.

That’s also why I have so much respect for Coach Richman at NDSU; he has managed to get the most out of his rosters vs. more-talented SDSU squads the past few seasons, though arguably in the regular and post-season aggregate as opposed to head-to-head match-ups with the Jackrabbits (who are also very well-coached).

 

[theeagleman5]

The last 2 posts are right on...ORU needs to play a more well rounded style of play. Current way we play is boring and not going to get us wins....

[EagleManiac]

1 hour ago, Dr. Cornelius said:

It's hard to gauge ORU against Oklahoma. ORU is 2-15 all time and haven't beaten the Sooners since 1976.

This style of play just doesn't work at this level. There's zero inside presence (offensive or defensive) which doesn't point towards success in the Summit.

I didn't watch the OU game, but I've seen plenty of promising drive/kick. The games I have seen, we've had a lot of open 3's, sometimes they just don't fall. Shooting 33% from distance is the same as shooting 50% within the arc. My thought is, why doesn't the shift to small ball work at this level? I've seen several posts saying that this shift won't work. Why not? If it works at the next level, why won't it work in the NCAA or even the Summit? 

The pushback against the coaching staff moving in the overwhelming direction of basketball (at all levels) doesn't make sense to me. Maybe I'm naive.

[Dr. Cornelius]

14 minutes ago, EagleManiac said:

My thought is, why doesn't the shift to small ball work at this level? I've seen several posts saying that this shift won't work. Why not? If it works at the next level, why won't it work in the NCAA or even the Summit? 

I would say that unless you have pro-level shooters you can’t overcome the scoring droughts.

In the NCAA (and especially low-major like ORU) you just don’t have the scoring talent. If you go for prolonged periods without scoring (which is ABSOLUTELY going to happen) you’re gonna have a bad time. Defense and rebounding travel.

[EagleManiac]

3 hours ago, Dr. Cornelius said:

I would say that unless you have pro-level shooters you can’t overcome the scoring droughts.

In the NCAA (and especially low-major like ORU) you just don’t have the scoring talent. If you go for prolonged periods without scoring (which is ABSOLUTELY going to happen) you’re gonna have a bad time. Defense and rebounding travel.

For the most part, I don't think you're wrong, necessarily. I tend to agree with you. But I am open to the experiment, and I would argue we do have the shooters necessary AND the right utility pieces to make it work. Last year I would have absolutely agreed with you - we just didn't have the shooters to be shooting from the perimeter as much as we did. AND we had arguably the strongest inside game in the Summit, which was frustrating to see underutilized like it was.

But this year, we're much better suited to a 4 -out (even 5-out) offense and hoisting up from distance frequently. Keep in mind, Golden State and the Splash Brothers are not the only ones that have shifted their offense to place more emphasis on the 3 point shot. Teams across the league have had success increasing their 3 point attempts, even if they don't have multiple top-tier shooters like Golden State. I recognize this is not the NBA and the game is a bit different at this level, but I think the same principal still applies - 3 points is 50% more valuable than 2 points. I would also argue we have the tools necessary to create GOOD 3-point attempts (this is the  key sticking point). 

 Obanor is still a strong inside presence, but he also has the ability to stretch the defense and knock down shots from outside (currently at 39% from 3). Max is shooting at an insane rate (46% from 3) and is able to do it both off the dribble and off the pass, which is a rare trait and challenging for the defense. You've got three other rotation guys who are at or above 33% from 3 (Glasper, Thompson, Weaver), and I think we've got the slashers necessary to penetrate and collapse the defense to create shots - Juergens, Abmas, Thompson can all get to the paint well.  Take away Lacis and Stevens and you've got a really good 3-point shooting team. 

I still think we've got a shot to finish 1-2 in the Summit and have a shot at the Summit title.  Remember this post in March when you're stumbling over yourselves to praise the offensive genius of Paul Mills (and EagleManiac). 

 

 

[ORUJason]

EagleManiac- I have wondered the same thing.  Maybe OT and I are just yelling “Get off my lawn” while the real  basketball coaching whiz kids pushing the up tempo “let it rain from 3 point land” style are on the cutting edge and have it all figured out.

I have watched enough college basketball to see both ORU and other teams shoot 70% from behind the arc in one half and 10% from behind the arc in the other half of the same game.  There was nothing different about the shooters or the offensive sets or approach, just that sometimes the basket seems huge (especially in the Mabee Center) and sometimes the basket seems tiny (especially in the Summit League tournament in South Dakota).

Max Abmas is a true 3 point shooting talent like Tim Gill who averaged in the low to mid 40% range for his career.  Max should always shoot a 3 if he has an open look.  He is a scoring weapon.  Any other 3 point shooter who can average over 35% should also have a green light with a good look.

However, if a big man can average 50%+ from near the basket, they will also be more likely to draw fouls, get the other team in foul trouble, get their own team in the bonus and double bonus, and occasionally get a conventional 3 point play.  ORU has often had very good FT shooters and if you shoot 70-75% from FT range that will usually beat shooting 35% from 3 point range, especially once you are in the double bonus.

If you can score effectively in all these ways and aren’t simply one dimensional, it makes you a more balanced team that can match up well with any type of opponent.

[TrueBlue82]

7 hours ago, Dr. Cornelius said:

Right now I would think ORU struggles to finish in top half of the league unless rebounding and defense improve dramatically.

It's unfortunate that our schedule has not given us an opportunity to match-up against a "Summit quality" opponent.  We have four losses on the road (likely five after this weekend) against top 100 teams, which would qualify as Quadrant 1 or 2 games (according to NET ratings).  And, we have three wins at home against NAIA opponents, which would qualify as Quadrant 5 games (if there was such a thing).  We haven't had ANY Quadrant 3 or 4 games - and ALL of our Summit League schedule will be Quadrant 3 or 4 matchups.  The originally scheduled games with Tulsa and UTA would have fallen into the Quadrant 3 (or low Q2) games - and would have provided a good comparable test to the best in the Summit.  So, we only have close (and not-so-close) outcomes with top teams - and blowouts of the NAIA - as the overall "body of work".  Which all leads to the fact that we really don't know how prepared this team will be for Summit play.

Based on results to date, the Summit is down this year.  I'm still confident of a top three finish in the league (something in the range of 11-5), but we will know a lot more by mid-January.

[EagleManiac]

Spot on TrueBlue. It's impossible to really give any kind of analysis of what we'll look like against similar competition given our schedule. I still feel good about what I've seen, but I could be way off. Whether it works out for us this year or not, the 3-ball is the analytic-driven wave of the future. 

[Old Titan]

1 hour ago, TrueBlue82 said:

It's unfortunate that our schedule has not given us an opportunity to match-up against a "Summit quality" opponent.  We have four losses on the road (likely five after this weekend) against top 100 teams, which would qualify as Quadrant 1 or 2 games (according to NET ratings).  And, we have three wins at home against NAIA opponents, which would qualify as Quadrant 5 games (if there was such a thing).  We haven't had ANY Quadrant 3 or 4 games - and ALL of our Summit League schedule will be Quadrant 3 or 4 matchups.  The originally scheduled games with Tulsa and UTA would have fallen into the Quadrant 3 (or low Q2) games - and would have provided a good comparable test to the best in the Summit.  So, we only have close (and not-so-close) outcomes with top teams - and blowouts of the NAIA - as the overall "body of work".  Which all leads to the fact that we really don't know how prepared this team will be for Summit play.

Based on results to date, the Summit is down this year.  I'm still confident of a top three finish in the league (something in the range of 11-5), but we will know a lot more by mid-January.

I’ve seen enough of ORU, SDSU and NDSU already to make the following prediction for the coming months:

“ORU will lose twice to SDSU and do no better than split with NDSU, and will lose to either by double digits in Sioux Falls.”

Everything else this season is merely window dressing, in any quadrant. 

 

[eagle88]

I think Old Titan is all over the target.  As much as the pollyanna side of me would like to differ the facts are what they are. We have fairly good athletes playing ball without much direction.  Simply put the coaching staff is not putting the team in a position to improve very much and/or win consistently against good teams. Unless things change our best hope is that Mills can recruit stud athletes who can win on any court and at any time, which unfortunately is highly unlikely.