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Summit 2018-19 Notes


TrueBlue82

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Highlights and lowlights from the first weekend of Summit League action:

Purdue FW sweeps the Grand Forks/Fargo road trip - and on consecutive days, no less - with the finale in overtime.  Impressive!

SDSU drubs Western by 42 at home - followed by the 'Necks thumping Denver by 18 on the same court two days later.  It's SDSU's conference this year, with the rest of the League battling for 2-9.  Denver starts 0-2, as they haven't yet recovered from their recent thrashing at the hands of Gonzaga.  And all the empty seats at Western Hall, with 441 in attendance for hosting SDSU and 342 for Denver.  Yes, I know that it is Christmas week and the weather conditions were brutal, but this is still Chicago State-esque...

And the only other road win goes to ORU, giving fans hope for a change.  Win at home, split on the road is always a recipe for success - and winning the first of eight road games is a great start.

 

 

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Let's not kid around....if E-Man plays like he did last night and Weaver and Obanor continue to show improvement.....this ORU team isn't THAT bad....we do need to hold home court and win at Mabee....and MAYBE a few students will show up for support if the Good Guys start winning....TheEagleman isn't going to say that ORU can play with SDSU  but we can surely hold our own with the other teams in the Summit League....:tb-blue:

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According to Ken Pomeroy's ratings, the Summit League breaks into three very distinct groups: SDSU and two pods of four teams.

SDSU 71

Pod 1: USD 193, PFW 197, OMA 202, NDSU 205

Pod 2: WIU 261, UND 285, DEN 287, ORU 292

The difference between the three groups is so significant and the Pods so tightly matched, that no team in Pod 2 should ever beat a team in Pod 1(even at home), each game between teams within a Pod should be won by the home team, and SDSU should go undefeated (matching OT's prediction).

Of the seven games played so far, there were two "upsets" that didn't follow this formula - PFW's win at NDSU, and ORU's win at OMA - with ORU's win being more significant as a Pod 2 road team winning at a Pod 1.

Looking forward to this week, SDSU will play face its toughest stretch of the conference season, with road games at PFW and USD.  If their record sits at 3-0 on Sunday, they will be well on their way to a 16-0 mark. 

Of the other five games on the schedule this week, four of them stay within the Pod, with USD at Denver the only Pod 1 vs. Pod 2 match-up.

ORU should be favored in each of its games this week, and MUST win both at home or all the momentum from the road upset at Omaha will be for naught.  While it would be a stretch given their past performance, an upper-division finish for ORU is still a possibility, but any loss this week would likely dash those hopes.

 

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I agree that the next two home games are important for ORU. If nothing else, wins will provide momentum and confidence.  

I will bookmark your post to review later this season. I am skeptical of Ken Pomeroy’s methodology - but will be curious to see how wrong I am. I do agree that SDSU appears to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 12/31/2018 at 11:58 AM, TrueBlue82 said:

SDSU 71

Pod 1: USD 193, PFW 197, OMA 202, NDSU 205

Pod 2: WIU 261, UND 285, DEN 287, ORU 292

The difference between the three groups is so significant and the Pods so tightly matched, that no team in Pod 2 should ever beat a team in Pod 1(even at home), each game between teams within a Pod should be won by the home team, and SDSU should go undefeated (matching OT's prediction).

Now halfway through the Summit season, the "pod" statement highlighted above has proven to be of some merit.  Of the 36 games played, this prediction was correct in 75% of the games (27-9).  What has also proven true is that the "pods" are not as far apart as originally thought, in that no team in Pod 1 has exceeded expectations and no team in Pod 2 has fallen further backwards (see "parity").  I list the teams below in order of projected final seeding (assuming that the second half of the season plays out with the same trends as the first), along with their original projected record and the +/- so far.

SDSU     14-2     16-0     -1

PFW      11-5     11-5     E

OMA     11-5     11-5     E

USD        7-9     11-5     -2

NDSU     7-9     11-5     -2

ORU       7-9     3-13     +2

WIU       7-9     3-13     +2

UND     5-11    3-13     +1

DEN     3-13     3-13     E

Seeds 4-7 appear to be a dogfight.  Where ORU finishes in that range will depend a lot on when E-man is reinserted into the lineup - and how effective he is post-injury.

All in all , I'm pleased at the growth of this team from the beginning of the season.  If E-man hadn't gone down with an injury, I'm confident that we would be 6-2 right now, and who would have predicted THAT earlier in the year!

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  • 3 months later...

This is more 2019-2020 info, but I didn't want to start a new thread.

Some Summit basketball coaching changes to the north...

NDSU finally fired its terrible WBB coach after five dismal seasons. The new coach was just named this week: Jory Collins, an assistant from Kansas. Collins was the head coach at DII Emporia State for many years before spending last year at Kansas. Rumor is that NDSU first offered it to the lead assistant from Drake, but she turned it down. Unknown if it was money or other things(if the rumor is true at all).

At UND, their MBB coach just announced that he's leaving to be an assistant at Illinois State. Money will be about the same for him($140k +/- $5k). The rumor on this one is that he's been pressuring his AD for more money for the assistant coaches, recruiting, and better home games. His AD won't budge(the budget for most UND sports are near the bottom of the Summit), so he finally left after about 13 seasons. UND's VB coach also left recently to accept a DIII head coaching job down your way(one of the small Baptist schools in OK or northern TX). Moving closer to family was a part of both coaching changes, but the safe bet is that a lack of funds played a role in both. Neither job has been filled yet.

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Forgot to mention SDSU's men's coach got the UNLV job and was replaced by one of his assistants, Eric Henderson. But that was over a month back and you probably discussed it already.

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My understanding regarding the UND MBB position is that the HC had a base salary of $140k per year and that his 4 assistants split a total of $160k.  For a D-1 mbb program, that is rock bottom.

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Still waiting for the announcement that ORU is moving to the WAC.....I guess that should be coming up soon???....😉😋🤪

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  • 4 weeks later...

UND MBB hires a reasonably successful DII coach from South Dakota: Paul Sather from Northern State. Sather took over from legendary coach Don Meyer back in 2010 after Meyer was diagnosed with cancer. Sather took Northern State to the DII tourney three times in the last five years with a runner-up finish two years ago. Rumor is a couple of the coaches UND was initially interested in pulled back due to the salary.

Also, UND promoted their new VB coach from within. The only other finalist was an assistant from Idaho. 

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When Brian Jones was HC, his base salary was $140,000 and his budget for assistants was a total of $160,000 for a total of $300,000 spent to staff UND MBB.  That is basically rock bottom for any D-I mbb program.    

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