Preseason Projections

[theeagleman5]

SI ranks ORU 249th out of 353 for 2018-19.....

[Old Titan]

Final preseason prediction:  anything less than 20 losses would be a surprise, with more than half of those coming before January 1st.

As usual, this is one of my "predict it one way to make it go the other way" stances, but I'm afraid that, this time, I may have nailed it instead...

[TrueBlue82]

Really tough to make my annual pre-season prediction with so many new players, a new scheme, an injured coach (therefore not much info), and no exhibitions.  I may have to rethink this one over Thanksgiving turkey and repost.  But for now:

 

Five non-conference home games: 4-1

Two non-D1 and one new D1 should give us at least three wins; and I am hopeful that we can split with TU and FGCU.

Two neutral games (Oakland tourney): 1-1

Once again, hopeful of a split

Eight non-conference road games: 0-8

While we could steal one or two of these, our best shot is probably our opening game, and we're just too young and too new to pull that off.

Summit - Home 5-3; Road 2-6

We could pull off another road steal, as half of our games are in a 4 game road trip late in the season, when we should be much improved.

Total: 12-19

Of course, this is assuming no key injuries, which is unlikely...

Let's hope that I am wrong, as I would really like to see Coach Mills get some positive traction with an improved season.  But I just can't see it.... yet.

[TrueBlue82]

On 11/2/2018 at 4:48 PM, TrueBlue82 said:

Really tough to make my annual pre-season prediction with so many new players, a new scheme, an injured coach (therefore not much info), and no exhibitions.  I may have to rethink this one over Thanksgiving turkey and repost.  But for now:

 

Five non-conference home games: 4-1

Two non-D1 and one new D1 should give us at least three wins; and I am hopeful that we can split with TU and FGCU.

Two neutral games (Oakland tourney): 1-1

Once again, hopeful of a split

Eight non-conference road games: 0-8

While we could steal one or two of these, our best shot is probably our opening game, and we're just too young and too new to pull that off.

Summit - Home 5-3; Road 2-6

We could pull off another road steal, as half of our games are in a 4 game road trip late in the season, when we should be much improved.

Total: 12-19

Of course, this is assuming no key injuries, which is unlikely...

Let's hope that I am wrong, as I would really like to see Coach Mills get some positive traction with an improved season.  But I just can't see it.... yet.

Looking back four months...

Five non-conference home games: 4-1 2-3 (Ouch) - The Cal Baptist loss really hurt.

Two non-D1 and one new D1 should give us at least three wins; and I am hopeful that we can split with TU and FGCU.

Two neutral games (Oakland tourney): 1-1 1-1 - Thankful for the JMU overtime win.

Once again, hopeful of a split

Eight non-conference road games: 0-8 1-7 - Caught a decent Richmond team on a really cold shooting afternoon (3-20 from the field).  Every loss was by double-digits.

While we could steal one or two of these, our best shot is probably our opening game, and we're just too young and too new to pull that off.

Summit - Home 5-3; Road 2-6 Home 5-3; Road 2-6 - Nailed both of these, but must admit that the wins didn't necessarily come from where I expected them.

We could pull off another road steal, as half of our games are in a 4 game road trip late in the season, when we should be much improved.

Total: 12-19 11-20

Of course, this is assuming no key injuries, which is unlikely...  Most accurate prediction of the year.

 

[ORUJason]

Pretty impressive predictions TrueBlue82!

Now what do you predict for the conference tournament?

[Old Titan]

Not one to shy away from my own prognostications either:

On 11/1/2018 at 11:36 AM, Old Titan said:

Final preseason prediction:  anything less than 20 losses would be a surprise, with more than half of those coming before January 1st.  Final regular season record:  11-20, record on January 1st was 5-11 (more than half the total season losses).

The following is from the "Entering Conference Play" thread from late December:

On 12/24/2018 at 12:23 AM, Old Titan said:

..a few mid-season observations, as ORU limps into Summit League play at 4-10 (actually was 4-11 at this point): 

1.  The team has actually improved from the beginning of the season, particularly since the FGCU game, but that's not saying much, as the record indicates (only two D-1 wins, vs. teams that will likely have losing records themselves this year).  Basically, ORU has progressed from "really bad" to "kinda mediocre".  The questions remains:  how high is their ceiling this season?  All things considered, are they now simply playing as well as they are capable, or is there still some genuine potential for further improvement with this bunch?  Never found out what the ceiling was, due to injuries to Kearns & Nzekewzi, and Chris Miller's departure.

2.  As I've stated for years, the difference between winning and losing down the stretch in close games is Point. Guard. Play.  And since ORU hasn't had decent point guard play in years, nor do they have a "go to" scorer in crunch time this season, it's hard to like their chances in any game where they don't have a double-digit lead at the final media timeout, especially on the road.  Mixed results: Kearns and Malone improved at the point as the season went on, and Obanor hit some big free throws late in a couple of wins.  But none of the road losses were close enough down the stretch for guard play to figure into the final minutes; the NDSU loss at home was probably the most obvious example of this particular prediction coming true.

3.  That being said, I now actually think ORU has a decent chance to win their conference home games against the lower half of the league.  ORU was 4-0 at home vs. the teams beneath them in the standings.  But otherwise, I don't like their chances in ANY road game 2-6 in league road games, or when the Dakota schools and IPFW visit (UND being the exception). 2-3 at home vs. the Dakota schools and IPFW.  Throw in an outlier or two along the way, and you're looking at a 5-11 conference record and a 7th or 8th place finish, qualifying for the conference tournament but drawing SDSU or USD for a quick first-round exit.  That would put the final record at 9-22 actually 9-23 if math wasn't hard.  Which, if you're keeping score at home. is terrible.  The outliers turned out to be the road wins at Omaha and South Dakota, leading to a 7-9 league record instead of 5-11.  The 5th Place finish affords ORU a Sunday game in Sioux Falls and a legitimate shot at reaching the semis, instead of the predicted first-round exit on Saturday.  Those two road wins also represent the difference between the 9-22/23 prediction vs. the actual 11-20 regular season record.  Not exactly as bad as predicted, but still b-a-a-a-a-d.

4.  If Chris Miller hasn't figured out by now how to stay out of foul trouble, he never will.  See:  "Roundtree, Steven (2010-2013)".  It's an absolute shame; the guy has some skills.  He never figured it out, quitting the team a week later.

5.  Will there EVER be a big enough game that Paul Mills will wear a tie?  Maybe if ORU played Baylor?  Apparently not.

6.  I would bet a modest amount of money that SDSU goes undefeated in league play.  It's not their best squad of the Mike Daum era, but there's a wider gap this year between both he and SDSU vs. the other top players & teams in the conference.  Best chances of them tripping up are at USD or IPFW.  But that's pretty much it.  SDSU did lose at PFW, and on the road to the team that supplanted PFW as the second-best team in the league:  Omaha.