ORU MBB 2017-18 Season Predictions

[ORUTerry]

Nice analysis - as expected. As you say, there are lots of unknowns. A new coaching staff that is finding itself and working with (mainly) the previous staff’s players. We have three(!) returning players (Owens, Nzekwesi and Miller) that have extensive playing time from last year. Our backcourt is totally new and untested. It will take time for them to acclimate to the system and their teammates. Hopefully they can keep a positive attitude through what will be a challenging schedule. 

[Old Titan]

Thx, JB! 

As always, an analytical feast.

In contrast, I'm relying on rumors, gut feelings, and pure conjecture:

Rumor:  RSU pulled their starters down the stretch in their scrimmage with ORU, to avoid embarrassing the host team in a toss-up contest.

Rumor:  the current roster is having a hard time adjusting to Paul Mills' 1-3-1, Baylor-style zone (ala South Dakota State in a similar situation last season with a first-year coach; they ditched the experiment mid-year and went back to playing man-to-man, with great results).

Gut Feeling:  still too small on the perimeter, especially to run that 1-3-1 zone.  Gotta have l-o-n-g guards to make that thing work.

Gut Feeling:  the brutal non-conference travel slate will exacerbate the learning curve for a fragile roster and a rookie coaching staff.

Gut Feeling:  not enough versatility or experience - in uniform, and on the bench - to handle so much uncertainty and change.

Pure Conjecture:  10-21 record, somewhere between 6th-to-last-place in the Summit, first-round exit in Sioux Falls.

[Dr. Cornelius]

Working towards playing some sort of zone (1-3-1 or pack line) should be the goal. Much harder to score against at the college level where shooting is inconsistent.

[Dr. Cornelius]

13 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said:

...However, I'm going to even take it a step further, as I believe that the Summit is a little bit down over last year, and I think we have a decent shot at a winning record in conference play, especially after this team has begun to gel and buy-in to the Mills approach after a brutal non-conference schedule.  As a result, I'm going to predict our Summit record at 8-6, and our final regular season record at 14-17, and that we will be one of those dangerous teams that no one wants on their side of the bracket in Sioux Falls.

W-L by month and cumulative:

November 2-6

December 3-5; 5-11

January 5-3; 10-14

February 4-3; 14-17

I would consider this a VERY successful season.

[theeagleman5]

TheEagleman still has the over/under at 10.5 and I am going to shill out a few $$ on the under based on everything I am hearing....while I love the enthusiasm of Coach Mills and all the excitement around new logos and uniforms it still comes down to improved guard play and can we get it....guess TheEagleman was dreaming of a possible blast from the past and RJ Fuqua coming in and stirring up the ghosts at Mabee Center with some brilliant play like his dad. Oh....if any of you could have seen his father scoring from everywhere when he lit up Illinois State for 49 in a match up of top 25 schools in 1973....but I digress....anybody know if RJ will contribute this season or will he be a red shirt?.....long story short...I just can't envision this squad pulling it together quick enough to win more than 10 games in 2017-18....Nov-Dec could be very painful but 2018 should bring some improvement....10-21....

 

[ORUParentLurker]

On 11/3/2017 at 10:29 PM, Old Titan said:

Thx, JB! 

As always, an analytical feast.

In contrast, I'm relying on rumors, gut feelings, and pure conjecture:

Rumor:  RSU pulled their starters down the stretch in their scrimmage with ORU, to avoid embarrassing the host team in a toss-up contest.

Rumor:  the current roster is having a hard time adjusting to Paul Mills' 1-3-1, Baylor-style zone (ala South Dakota State in a similar situation last season with a first-year coach; they ditched the experiment mid-year and went back to playing man-to-man, with great results).

Gut Feeling:  still too small on the perimeter, especially to run that 1-3-1 zone.  Gotta have l-o-n-g guards to make that thing work.

Gut Feeling:  the brutal non-conference travel slate will exacerbate the learning curve for a fragile roster and a rookie coaching staff.

Gut Feeling:  not enough versatility or experience - in uniform, and on the bench - to handle so much uncertainty and change.

Pure Conjecture:  10-21 record, somewhere between 6th-to-last-place in the Summit, first-round exit in Sioux Falls.

Ha. I have enough inside info to dispell the rumors.  First, RSU played their starters to theat bitter end.  In fact, ORU had a sizeable lead late and RSU went on a little run in garbage time at the end to make the score a little closer.  Second, this stuff about a 1-3-1 is based on what? Baylor?  I don't buy it.

He is a defensive oriented coach so it may be true the returning players are struggling to adjust (i.e. now they are being asked to play defense).  I expect that he will want to run a variety of defenses.  I also expect that he'll cater his defense to his talent.  His first two signees were JUCO PGs both 6'2" and under.  If he was really married to having long guards that would be a curious move.

I do believe depth will be an issue.  I also know the schedule is brutal.  That all being said, if they remain healthy I truly believe this team can compete in conference.  

[theeagleman5]

Anybody know if we had a scrimmage yesterday?....North Texas?...

[Old Titan]

14 hours ago, ORUParentLurker said:

Ha. I have enough inside info to dispell the rumors.  First, RSU played their starters to theat bitter end.  In fact, ORU had a sizeable lead late and RSU went on a little run in garbage time at the end to make the score a little closer.  Second, this stuff about a 1-3-1 is based on what? Baylor?  I don't buy it.

He is a defensive oriented coach so it may be true the returning players are struggling to adjust (i.e. now they are being asked to play defense).  I expect that he will want to run a variety of defenses.  I also expect that he'll cater his defense to his talent.  His first two signees were JUCO PGs both 6'2" and under.  If he was really married to having long guards that would be a curious move.

I do believe depth will be an issue.  I also know the schedule is brutal.  That all being said, if they remain healthy I truly believe this team can compete in conference.  

Frankly, I think so little of the prospects this season that I’m not interested in arguing these points. 

But, I stand by the RSU rumor - it was related to me by someone in attendance with intimate knowledge of both rosters. 

[ORUTerry]

I was there and it didn’t happen.... RSU used about 8 players and substituted freely during the game. Did not notice any changes toward the end. Just saying. 

[ORU82]

Thanks for posting Terry.

[Old Titan]

5 hours ago, ORU82 said:

Thanks for posting Terry.

Yeah, Terry, thanks for putting that negative ol’ grump in his place!!  LOL 

[ORUTerry]

Ha! That was not my intention. Just giving my impression of what I saw. RSU had a good squad and seemed to play hard. I thought their rotation was consistent - although one of their players took a hard fall late and may not have played afterwards. I also think our squad seemed a bit tired and were getting used to the 1-3-1 zone. 

[ORUParentLurker]

Rogers is a very talented D2.  If you go look at their roster, half of their players are D1 transfers.  I heard we didn't play all that well and it still wasn't that close.

All that being said... I think Mills is just fine having basement level expectations.   Contrary to this fuss about a zone, it seems the defense is ahead of the offense at this point.  We are very thin in the back court but the guys we do have will surprise you.  In fact, I bet we play a lot of zone simply to keep guys out of foul trouble.  IMO, getting our bigs to play effective perimeter defense is going to be the key to the season.  If we can have Al, Javan and EMan on the floor a lot together that will be a nice advantage especially in the Summit.

All in all, a 10-12 victory prediction is reasonable.  I personally think they could win 10 in conference so I'd go with 18 or so victories on the season.  The home games against Miss St and Oakland are the key games.  Win those and it establishes a home energy that will propel them during conference play.

[ORUTerry]

Oakland will be a very tall order. They are talented and will compete for a Horizon League title. 

[theeagleman5]

Did ORU have a scrimmage this past weekend?.....and Any word on how RJ Fuqua is looking?...will he be in the rotation or a candidate to redshirt?...

[ORUTerry]

Not sure about Fuqua’s condition - but he is not red-shirting unless he has a season ending injury. The last I saw him, he was walking around without any apparent braces or limp. 

[ManiacAlum]

This seems like the longest offseason ever.

[Old Titan]

7 hours ago, ORUParentLurker said:

Rogers is a very talented D2.  If you go look at their roster, half of their players are D1 transfers.  I heard we didn't play all that well and it still wasn't that close.

*sigh*

Ya know, I said I wasn't in the mood to argue...

EXCEPT, about this one point (and let's face it:  what little reputation I do have is on the line here!  LOL)

I was told by this insider who was there (and who, if you must know, is on the payroll of one of the two schools involved) that RSU did not play two projected starters in the contest, due to injuries and such, and that this team is perhaps their weakest squad in years (at least, right now).

In other words, this was probably not RSU's best effort, either.

And, as for the "it still wasn't that close" comment, here are the updates from the @ORUMBB Twitter feed during the contest:

• "@ORUMBB and @RSUHillcats square off to raise money for hurricane relief. Early on, ORU leads 10-9"

• "2:50 left in the first half. #ORUMBB down 21-20. Golden Eagles shooting 40% but plagued by early turnovers (10). #ORURiseUP"

• "HALFTIME: #ORUMBB 22 - @RSUMBB 21. Kearns with 14 points (5-8 FG) for ORU. #ORURiseUp"

• "MEDIA (15:42 2H): #ORUMBB 27 - RSU 26. ORU mixing up lineups w/ leading scorer Sam Kearns sitting out to start the 2nd. #ORURiseUp"

• "A FOUR POINT PLAY! Kearns makes it 20 pts on the day and puts #ORUMBB up 36-30. 9:56 to play."

• "2:49 to play and #ORUMBB leads RSU 47-41. #ORURiseUp"

• "FINAL: #ORUMBB 54 - @RSUMBB 49.  More important than the score was the chance to aid @RedCross in their hurricane relief efforts. #ORURiseUp"
 

Wow, I guess I should apologize for misrepresenting that total beat down!

All kidding aside:  "I'm just sayin'" (don't you hate that phrase?) that I fear the nip-and-tuck contest with RSU may simply be a harbinger of things to come, and it figures into my W-L prediction.  That's all...

P.S.  ORUParentLurker, PLEASE do not take ANY of this personally.  As anyone here can tell you, when it comes to my relentless pursuit of getting in the last word:  I'm sick, and I need professional help.