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TrueBlue82

2017 NCAA Tournament - ORU's 27th Appearance

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Old Titan
2 hours ago, ORUalum said:

final projections......

D1baseball.com (5/29)

  1. Arkansas
  2. Missouri St
  3. Ok State
  4. ORU

Have to make a note to follow this site closely next year leading up to the selection show!

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ORUalum

shortest total mileage of any regional???

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theeagleman5

Great situation for us.....ORU is a dangerous 4 seed...:tb-blue:

 

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ORUJason

ORU is 4-2 vs. teams in this regional (1-1 vs. Missouri State and 3-1 vs. OSU).  You could not ask for a much better situation.

The RPIs for this regional also demonstrate that this is a fairly winnable regional for any of the teams (including ORU).

Arkansas - 14

Missouri State - 29

OSU - 40

ORU - 82

While these are all good teams, Arkansas is one of the weakest 1-seeds, Missouri State is one of the weakest 2-seeds, and OSU is one of the weakest 3-seeds (probably the weakest except for Yale, Rice, and Xavier).  And if you win, you would most likely travel only as far as Fort Worth, or possibly Dallas Baptist.  While TCU is a really good team, I would rather face them than Oregon State, North Carolina, Florida, or LSU.  This is almost a best-case scenario!

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ORUJason

Also, Cal State Fullerton kind of got jobbed by being sent to the Stanford regional as the #2 seed when they could have been placed in the Long Beach State regional as the 2-seed.  Texas should have been sent to the Stanford regional instead, but I think the NCAA/ESPN wanted a good TV matchup between Texas and UCLA, so instead of having to drive 30 minutes to the LBS regional, Cal State Fullerton has to head 7 hours north to San Francisco, even though they are the #2 seed.

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gohogs14

Looking forward to it, should be packed with every team within driving distance. Hopefully the weather holds off though...looks like it will be storming all weekend as of now.

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ORUalum

Big decision for Coach Folmar --- stick with his normal weekend rotation or go with the hot arm and move Ausua up to open the regional against the Razorbacks

 

Arkansas record:

vs Left starter   12-5 
vs Right starter   30-12 

 

 

 

 

 

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TrueBlue82

                           ERA     W-L   IP   BB/SO 
Miguel Ausua      1.67   11-2   86.1 27/79
Kyler Stout          1.72    11Sv 31.1 12/33
Josh McMinn      2.08     9-3   86.1  26/72
Justin McGregor 2.81     9-0   77.0  26/66

This is a strong 1-2-3 punch, and a solid closer.  A great rotation built for a four-team regional and/or a super regional.

As for the Friday night starter - any of the three would be a good selection.  And if your starter gets in trouble early, you bring in starter #2 and save your starter #1 for additional duty later in the weekend.  It's all hands on deck for the entire pitching staff.

 

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TrueBlue82

Just looking at these teams - I predict whoever wins the Friday night UA-ORU game wins it all.

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hogfan4
2 hours ago, ORUJason said:

ORU is 4-2 vs. teams in this regional (1-1 vs. Missouri State and 3-1 vs. OSU).  You could not ask for a much better situation.

The RPIs for this regional also demonstrate that this is a fairly winnable regional for any of the teams (including ORU).

Arkansas - 14

Missouri State - 29

OSU - 40

ORU - 82

While these are all good teams, Arkansas is one of the weakest 1-seeds, Missouri State is one of the weakest 2-seeds, and OSU is one of the weakest 3-seeds (probably the weakest except for Yale, Rice, and Xavier).  And if you win, you would most likely travel only as far as Fort Worth, or possibly Dallas Baptist.  While TCU is a really good team, I would rather face them than Oregon State, North Carolina, Florida, or LSU.  This is almost a best-case scenario!

If you go strictly off our RPI ranking, then yes you can say we are one of the weakest 1 seeds. However, there was debate among the national analysts if we beat LSU in our championship game we would be a national seed. We left the bases loaded down 4-2 v them. 

If you look at our resume, we have 16 top 50 wins. That ranks 8th among all 16 hosts.  We have the 10th best record among the 16 hosts, and 9th best SOS. We finished 4th in the 2nd toughest conference which sent 8 teams to the tournament. We had some pitching trouble early in the year, and struggled to find reliable relievers. We changed our game 3 starter multiple times, too. However, we have 2 aces who have steadied in the last mont. Both have power arms who can touch 95-96 mph, and both will be taken in the first 5 rounds of the draft. Some are saying Blaine Knight could sneak into the 1st round. We strike out a lot of guys, don't walk many, and we hit a lot of balls out of the park. Chad Spanberger hit 5 HRs and 3 doubles in 5 games in the SEC tourney, including 3 HRs in one game. He is tied for 2nd in the SEC with 19 HRs. He won SEC Tournament MVP, and is probably the hottest hitter in the country right now. Just to give you an example, in the 9th v LSU we were down 4-2 with runners on 1st and 2nd, and they walked Spanberger to load the bases despite 1st base being occupied. He will be a top 5 round pick in a few weeks. We have 3 guys in our lineup with at least 10 HRs, and 2 more with 9. We have hit over 70 HRs on the season. We are far from weak, but we are also far from unbeatable. 

To be honest, I am more concerned about our matchup with you guys than anyone else. If we win game 1, we will have another stud waiting to throw game 2, and the other teams do not have the starting pitching depth that the two of us appear to have. 

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ORUJason

Thanks for the synopsis hogfan4.  No doubt Arkansas is well deserving of hosting a regional.  Whoever wins this regional will earn it.  I just prefer being in this regional where we aren't having to face a Top 5 team as we have had to so many times.  I think your current ranking is around 12/13, and I certainly prefer that matchup instead of facing a Top 5 team.

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hogfan4
3 hours ago, ORUJason said:

Thanks for the synopsis hogfan4.  No doubt Arkansas is well deserving of hosting a regional.  Whoever wins this regional will earn it.  I just prefer being in this regional where we aren't having to face a Top 5 team as we have had to so many times.  I think your current ranking is around 12/13, and I certainly prefer that matchup instead of facing a Top 5 team.

That is a fair point. We are able to beat just about anyone, like when we beat Florida 16-0 on Saturday with their best pitcher on the mound. However, we have stubbed our toe quite a bit this year, too. If you guys are smart, you would throw your lefty. We have multiple lefties in our lineup, and a switch hitter who hits better as a lefty. Our top 2 hitters at this point are both left handed hitters.  Our bullpen isn't very deep, so if you get to our starter early you have a very good chance. 

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theeagleman5

ORU vs. Arkansas looks like maybe the most interesting of the 1-4 match ups.....along with Houston vs. Iowa......also, Missouri St. vs. OSU is just about a toss up....another great 2-3 game is OU vs. Xavier....the Musketeers have a pitcher who might be one of the top 5 in D-1.....that opening game is no picnic for the Sooners.....very impressive that the state of Oklahoma has 3 teams in the tournament once again.....:clap:

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hogjon77
On 5/28/2017 at 3:10 PM, ORUJason said:

How Yale is #48 in the RPI is beyond me.  They are 32-16 and went 0-2 vs the Top 100 in the RPI.

The reason Yale's RPI is that high is that they played 28 games on the road as opposed to 13 at home. Road wins, no matter how bad the opponent, are worth a lot more in the RPI than wins at home, and you don't get punished as bad when you lose them. It's the same reason Missouri State has an RPI of 29 despite going 0-3 against the top 50 and 10-9 against the top 100, they played 27 road games and 23 at home. The RPI was made that way a few years ago to help out the Northern teams that can't play many games at home during the early part of the season due to weather. I don't agree with it, think they should tweak it a little, but that's just my opinion.

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theeagleman5

You are right on, Hog.....RPI is not indicative of how a team is playing....frankly, I think from the eye test that OSU is really the 2 seed in our region and Missouri State the 3. And ORU is really deserving of a 3 seed over other 3 seeds like Yale....I think one can make a case that ORU might be better than Michigan, South Alabama, Bethune-Cookman, Xavier, BYU and Rice...and we beat OSU 2 out of 3 so we have proved to be better than them.....it's all politics and conference related.....but that's the way life goes and now ORU needs to go out on the field and win some games next weekend to get the respect....beating the Hogs on Friday night is a tall task on their home field and going up against their ace....but if we get strong pitching and defense....a victory can be had....:eagles:

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theeagleman5

By the way....the committee did TCU no favors putting them in with Virginia and Dallas Baptist.....the Patriots have no fear of TCU and the Cavaliers may have gotten hosed out of a #1 seed.....I could see Virginia winning that region if they get by DBU in the first game....:geek:

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Old Titan
19 hours ago, hogfan4 said:

If you guys are smart, you would throw your lefty. We have multiple lefties in our lineup, and a switch hitter who hits better as a lefty. Our top 2 hitters at this point are both left handed hitters. 

If Arkansas is that much more susceptible to left-handers than right-handers, I have to think that lefty midweek starter Taylor Varnell will figure prominently if ORU is able to advance past Saturday.

Despite not taking the mound this past week in the Summit League tournament, Taylor is a proven commodity who has already shown he's not intimidated by the "big name" opponents he faced on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, and other than a shaky performance vs. OSU two weeks ago, he's been more and more effective with each outing.

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hogjon77
3 hours ago, theeagleman5 said:

You are right on, Hog.....RPI is not indicative of how a team is playing....frankly, I think from the eye test that OSU is really the 2 seed in our region and Missouri State the 3. And ORU is really deserving of a 3 seed over other 3 seeds like Yale....I think one can make a case that ORU might be better than Michigan, South Alabama, Bethune-Cookman, Xavier, BYU and Rice...and we beat OSU 2 out of 3 so we have proved to be better than them.....it's all politics and conference related.....but that's the way life goes and now ORU needs to go out on the field and win some games next weekend to get the respect....beating the Hogs on Friday night is a tall task on their home field and going up against their ace....but if we get strong pitching and defense....a victory can be had....:eagles:

I agree that strictly off the eye test that OSU is playing better than Missouri State. I know you guys won 2 of 3 against OSU in the midweek games, which is impressive, but those wins really don't carry a lot of weight with the selection committee. What you do on the weekend is what they really focus on. Bethune-Cookman, Yale, & Xavier were definitely not deserving of 3 seeds, but with a lot of autobids being stolen in conference tournaments, they got bumped up to the 3 line.

I have to respectfully disagree with your take on Rice, they are 18-4 in their last 22 games, have a strength of schedule of 3, and 16 RPI top 50 wins. They are one of the hottest teams in the tournament. Another thing that hurt you guys is that you only have 6 RPI top 100 wins, where as BYU has 13, Michigan has 12, & Xavier has 10. All that said, I can promise you the Hogs are not taking you guys lightly, as our ace Trevor Stephan is getting the ball in game 1.

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oruvoice

I remember my last trip to the ballpark at UofA.

Weekend sweep of Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

That was a fun weekend.

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theeagleman5

You are probably correct on BYU, Rice and Michigan...Xavier stole the Big East tournament from St. Johns and has not played very consistently all season....I have a friend who's son plays 1B for the Musketeers and she is stunned to be going to Louisville next  weekend.....let alone a 3 seed.....TheEagleman agrees that Arkansas is a very tough opponent and while not a National Seed....the Hogs are a formidable foe and ORU will have to bring the A game to beat Stephan.....we will need to get up early on UA and try to force Stephan to use a lot of pitches and get to the bullpen...easier said than done....But at 42-14 we have had a great season and played well except for the Dairy Queen Classic in March....those 3 losses undoubtedly cost us a 3 seed.....:!:

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ORUalum

interesting tidbit about McMinn and Ausua that i was not aware of.....

 

Quote

http://www.the-standard.org/sports/fayetteville-regional-who-are-the-bears-going-to-have-to/article_2a69c9b2-4571-11e7-ab57-e31dc06d0801.html

Two seasons ago, ORU played in the Stillwater Regional, and was eliminated in part by Arkansas. This season Oral Roberts is riding their starting pitching. Miguel Ausua has blown opponents away, his 11-2 record and ninth best in the nation 1.67 ERA over 86.1 innings is stellar.

However, Ausua isn’t the only one producing on the mound Josh McMinn has posted a 2.08 ERA over 86.1 innings.

The two combine for the best ERA by two starters on the same team in the nation. Justin McGregor too, has had huge success going 9-0 with a 2.81 ERA over 77 innings. That type of pitching is a recipe for success, especially late in the season.

 

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ManiacAlum

I believe OSU and Mo. State have lefty-heavy lineups as well. Any chance Ausua gets the ball Saturday no matter the outcome on Friday?

 

 

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theeagleman5

Ausua has to get a start in one of the first two games....if Maniac is correct I would think he goes Saturday....and if ORU can win against the host Hogs on Friday night....we might just take this regional....ORU has 4 solid starters and 3 maybe 4 relievers who I trust....deepest staff the Good Guys have had in a decade....plus our D is very strong and we have a line up than can manufacture runs and hit the long ball.... Arkansas is clearly the favorite but ORU could do it and OSU is on a roll and dangerous....can't overlook the Bears of MSU also....this Fayetteville Regional might be the most competitive of all 16....:geek:

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ORUalum

Ausua to start for Oral Roberts

FAYETTEVILLE — Oral Roberts University Coach Ryan Folmar said junior left-hander Miguel Ausua (11-2, 1.67 ERA) will start against the Arkansas Razorbacks Friday night when the teams play in the NCAA regional at Baum Stadium.

Ausua, 6-0 and 180 pounds, primarily was a reliever at Panola (Texas) Junior College, but the Puerto Rico native has been a workhorse for the Golden Eagles this season. He has pitched 86 1/3 innings in 15 games, including 14 starts.

"He's got good stuff," Folmar said. "He's pitched in our rotation all year long and been extremely consistent.

"He's been the same guy every time he's gone out and taken the ball this year."

Ausua's fastball hits between 86 and 90 miles per hour, Folmar said, and he also throws a slider, curveball and changeup. He has 79 strikeouts and 27 walks.

"He's been that guy that's won a lot of big games for us," Folmar said. "He can give you problems in a lot of different ways."

So he's crafty lefty?

"That he is," Folmar said. "That he is."

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oruvoice

I like it.

What are my TV/radio options for Friday night?

If we win Friday, I think a short jaunt over to Fayetteville will be on the agenda for Saturday...

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