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TrueBlue82

2017 NCAA Tournament - ORU's 27th Appearance

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TrueBlue82

ORU is much closer to earning a #3 seed than I ever thought possible.  Our RPI has improved to 80, with a non-conference RPI of 55.  With a rash of upsets in conference tournaments, there are now at least 13 AQ conference champions that will have an RPI worse than 80, and that list could grow to 18 by the time the conference tournaments are over.  While RPI is only one indicator of how we will be seeded, I believe that the "intangible" factor will also be in our favor.  We are a known quantity within the committee, while many teams on the 3/4 bubble are relative newcomers to the NCAA baseball party. And, while some will say that the committee won't care about the 3 and 4 seeds, they WILL want to protect their #1 seeds.  I can assure you that there is no #1 seed that wants to play ORU in the first round, and would much rather match up with Bethune-Cookman (RPI 75) or Yale (RPI 48).  Also, with TCU and Arkansas both moving closer to national seed designation, our chance of being assigned to either of those regionals as a #4 seed diminishes.  I don't see us being sent to Fort Worth for two years in a row - but could we end up in Fayetteville as a #3 seed???

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Old Titan
52 minutes ago, TrueBlue82 said:

ORU is much closer to earning a #3 seed than I ever thought possible.  Our RPI has improved to 80, with a non-conference RPI of 55.  With a rash of upsets in conference tournaments, there are now at least 13 AQ conference champions that will have an RPI worse than 80, and that list could grow to 18 by the time the conference tournaments are over.  While RPI is only one indicator of how we will be seeded, I believe that the "intangible" factor will also be in our favor.  We are a known quantity within the committee, while many teams on the 3/4 bubble are relative newcomers to the NCAA baseball party. And, while some will say that the committee won't care about the 3 and 4 seeds, they WILL want to protect their #1 seeds.  I can assure you that there is no #1 seed that wants to play ORU in the first round, and would much rather match up with Bethune-Cookman (RPI 75) or Yale (RPI 48).  Also, with TCU and Arkansas both moving closer to national seed designation, our chance of being assigned to either of those regionals as a #4 seed diminishes.  I don't see us being sent to Fort Worth for two years in a row - but could we end up in Fayetteville as a #3 seed???

Outstanding - you should do this for a living. :y:

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ManiacAlum

I like it!... This happened in 2015. We got a #3 after missing out on the tournament for 2 years, with a lower RPI and worse record than this year's team. Unfortunately, that regional also had a very good #4 seed in St. John's. Hopefully our SOS this year (250) doesn't work against us.

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Dr. Cornelius
4 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said:

ORU is much closer to earning a #3 seed than I ever thought possible.  Our RPI has improved to 80, with a non-conference RPI of 55.  With a rash of upsets in conference tournaments, there are now at least 13 AQ conference champions that will have an RPI worse than 80, and that list could grow to 18 by the time the conference tournaments are over.  While RPI is only one indicator of how we will be seeded, I believe that the "intangible" factor will also be in our favor.  We are a known quantity within the committee, while many teams on the 3/4 bubble are relative newcomers to the NCAA baseball party. And, while some will say that the committee won't care about the 3 and 4 seeds, they WILL want to protect their #1 seeds.  I can assure you that there is no #1 seed that wants to play ORU in the first round, and would much rather match up with Bethune-Cookman (RPI 75) or Yale (RPI 48).  Also, with TCU and Arkansas both moving closer to national seed designation, our chance of being assigned to either of those regionals as a #4 seed diminishes.  I don't see us being sent to Fort Worth for two years in a row - but could we end up in Fayetteville as a #3 seed???

Good insight as usual 82!

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theeagleman5

Bethune-Cookman??...Yale??...:rofl:....ORU is better than both those squads. So much for RPI....please put us in a bracket with one of those teams...82 with an incredible analysis....that man is the Joe Lunardi of baseball....8)

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ORUJason

How Yale is #48 in the RPI is beyond me.  They are 32-16 and went 0-2 vs the Top 100 in the RPI.

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ORU82

I just looked at Yale's schedule, how Yale has an RPI of 48 is beyond me.  They have basically played no one beyond Clemson who whipped them like a rented mule.

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Old Titan

By winning the Big XII tournament and earning an automatic NCAA bid as an EIGHT SEED, Oklahoma State just stole a #3 Seed in the regionals - doesn't help ORU's case on that front one bit. 

P.S.  Big XII commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who I would imagine is a very busy man, on hand in Oklahoma City to present the championship trophy to the Cowboys following their win. 

Just wondering what is annually so important on Summit League   commissioner Tom Douple's schedule that he can't ever be in Tulsa to recognize the SL baseball tournament champion?

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ORUJason

To dig a little deeper based on RPI for the automatic qualifiers, it looks like there will be exactly 16 teams with an RPI below ORU's.

Pac-12 Oregon State 1
SEC  LSU (likely) 6
Conference USA  Southern Miss (8) or Rice (47) 8
ACC Florida State 11
Big West Long Beach State 14
American Athletic Houston 18
Sun Belt South Alabama 33
Atlantic Sun Florida Gulf Coast 35
Big 12  OSU (44) or TX (16) 44
Ivy League Yale 48
Southland Sam Houston State 54
West Coast BYU 59
Missouri Valley  Dallas Baptist (likely) 63
Mid-Eastern Bethune-Cookman 75
Summit League Oral Roberts 80
Big Ten Iowa 84
Mountain West  San Diego State (likely) 86
BIg East Xavier 87
OVC Tennessee Tech 93
Horizon UIC 99
Metro Atlantic Marist 111
Colonial Delaware 124
Atlantic 10 Davidson 125
Southern  UNC Greensboro (likely) 129
Northeast Central Connecticut State 147
America East UMBC 157
Big South  Radford 160
WAC Sacramento State 177
Mid-American Ohio 191
Patriot Holy Cross 210
SWAC Texas Southern 266

 

So, ORU will be right on the edge of a 3-seed or a 4-seed.  Perhaps with our previous history and several Big 12 wins this year, we will receive a 3-seed.

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ManiacAlum

Warren Nolan currently has us right behind Iowa and San Diego St at 83. Not sure how we dropped after OSU winning today.

Whichever regional or seed we end up with, please let there be a Big 12 team there. With the exception of TCU and maybe Tech, they all seemed to be a bit overvalued this year. OSU lost 9 of 10 going into Bedlam and had a conference record of 8-14.

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ORUJason

Yes those RPIs are from D1baseball.com and are a day old.  

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ORUJason

I think either OU or OSU will end up in Fayetteville, but obviously not both.

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theeagleman5

Beating #44 OSU twice in the past month has to help #83 ORU's case for a 3 seed....plus our top 3 starting pitchers are a combined 29-5 with an ERA of just over 2.00....as mentioned above...no #1 seed will want to face ORU as a #4 seed...if the committee has any sense they will make us a 3 seed...if Yale is a 3 and ORU a 4...that's just idiocy....:geek:

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ORUJason

Here is another question:  Does Folmar keep the same #1, #2, and #3 starting pitcher order?  If so, he would risk Miguel Ausua, the Summit League Conference Pitcher of the Year and Conference Tournament MVP perhaps never even getting a chance to take the field (if ORU went 0-2 in a regional).

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TrueBlue82

There were 16 eventual AQ tourney teams with RPIs below ORU when the day began.  However, three of them won their championship game and jumped us with the win (Xavier, Iowa, San Diego State).  I think we probably end up as a #4, but as a high #4 may be assigned to Houston, which captured the final #1 seed (and home field advantage).  However, with Arkansas not earning a national seed, and ORU as a low three/high four just 120 miles away, the committee may have a hard time not booking that one.  And with Missouri State as a 2 and Okla State as a 3?

I'm guessing Fayetteville or Houston, with a slight edge to Fayetteville.   And low three or high four, with edge to a four.  A win or two back in March in Minneapolis might have made the difference to push us to a three seed.

   

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TrueBlue82
10 minutes ago, ORUJason said:

Here is another question:  Does Folmar keep the same #1, #2, and #3 starting pitcher order?  If so, he would risk Miguel Ausua, the Summit League Conference Pitcher of the Year and Conference Tournament MVP perhaps never even getting a chance to take the field (if ORU went 0-2 in a regional).

I think if one of the teams in our region has a significant difference in average between RHP and LHP, we adjust our rotation accordingly.  That said, I would be very surprised if Ausua is not on the mound in one of the first two games.  

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ORUalum

final projections......

D1baseball.com (5/29)

  1. Arkansas
  2. Missouri St
  3. Ok State
  4. ORU

 

Baseball America (5/28)

  1. Arkansas
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Miami
  4. ORU

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TrueBlue82

Warren Nolan (5/29)

  1. Arkansas
  2. Oklahoma
  3. ORU
  4. Tennessee Tech

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theeagleman5

What time and channel is the NCAA selection show...not seeing it in the guide...:|

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ORUalum
13 minutes ago, theeagleman5 said:

What time and channel is the NCAA selection show...not seeing it in the guide...:|

 

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theeagleman5

Sounds good....thanks!....Comcast .Espn2 guide has a Mike and Mike rerun on at noon....lol

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theeagleman5

Yale a 3 seed.....lol....:|

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ORUalum

D1baseball.com nailed the Fayetteville regional

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ORU82

Fayetteville it is against Arkansas.  No. 4 vs. No. 1.  Mo. State vs. the Pokes also join us.  Go Golden Eagles!  If we win we get the TCU regional teams.

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ORUalum

just glad they did not get sent to TCU again or to Texas Tech.....

 

 

 

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