TrueBlue82 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 ORU is much closer to earning a #3 seed than I ever thought possible. Our RPI has improved to 80, with a non-conference RPI of 55. With a rash of upsets in conference tournaments, there are now at least 13 AQ conference champions that will have an RPI worse than 80, and that list could grow to 18 by the time the conference tournaments are over. While RPI is only one indicator of how we will be seeded, I believe that the "intangible" factor will also be in our favor. We are a known quantity within the committee, while many teams on the 3/4 bubble are relative newcomers to the NCAA baseball party. And, while some will say that the committee won't care about the 3 and 4 seeds, they WILL want to protect their #1 seeds. I can assure you that there is no #1 seed that wants to play ORU in the first round, and would much rather match up with Bethune-Cookman (RPI 75) or Yale (RPI 48). Also, with TCU and Arkansas both moving closer to national seed designation, our chance of being assigned to either of those regionals as a #4 seed diminishes. I don't see us being sent to Fort Worth for two years in a row - but could we end up in Fayetteville as a #3 seed??? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 52 minutes ago, TrueBlue82 said: ORU is much closer to earning a #3 seed than I ever thought possible. Our RPI has improved to 80, with a non-conference RPI of 55. With a rash of upsets in conference tournaments, there are now at least 13 AQ conference champions that will have an RPI worse than 80, and that list could grow to 18 by the time the conference tournaments are over. While RPI is only one indicator of how we will be seeded, I believe that the "intangible" factor will also be in our favor. We are a known quantity within the committee, while many teams on the 3/4 bubble are relative newcomers to the NCAA baseball party. And, while some will say that the committee won't care about the 3 and 4 seeds, they WILL want to protect their #1 seeds. I can assure you that there is no #1 seed that wants to play ORU in the first round, and would much rather match up with Bethune-Cookman (RPI 75) or Yale (RPI 48). Also, with TCU and Arkansas both moving closer to national seed designation, our chance of being assigned to either of those regionals as a #4 seed diminishes. I don't see us being sent to Fort Worth for two years in a row - but could we end up in Fayetteville as a #3 seed??? Outstanding - you should do this for a living. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ManiacAlum Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 I like it!... This happened in 2015. We got a #3 after missing out on the tournament for 2 years, with a lower RPI and worse record than this year's team. Unfortunately, that regional also had a very good #4 seed in St. John's. Hopefully our SOS this year (250) doesn't work against us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Cornelius Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 4 hours ago, TrueBlue82 said: ORU is much closer to earning a #3 seed than I ever thought possible. Our RPI has improved to 80, with a non-conference RPI of 55. With a rash of upsets in conference tournaments, there are now at least 13 AQ conference champions that will have an RPI worse than 80, and that list could grow to 18 by the time the conference tournaments are over. While RPI is only one indicator of how we will be seeded, I believe that the "intangible" factor will also be in our favor. We are a known quantity within the committee, while many teams on the 3/4 bubble are relative newcomers to the NCAA baseball party. And, while some will say that the committee won't care about the 3 and 4 seeds, they WILL want to protect their #1 seeds. I can assure you that there is no #1 seed that wants to play ORU in the first round, and would much rather match up with Bethune-Cookman (RPI 75) or Yale (RPI 48). Also, with TCU and Arkansas both moving closer to national seed designation, our chance of being assigned to either of those regionals as a #4 seed diminishes. I don't see us being sent to Fort Worth for two years in a row - but could we end up in Fayetteville as a #3 seed??? Good insight as usual 82! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Bethune-Cookman??...Yale??.......ORU is better than both those squads. So much for RPI....please put us in a bracket with one of those teams...82 with an incredible analysis....that man is the Joe Lunardi of baseball.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 How Yale is #48 in the RPI is beyond me. They are 32-16 and went 0-2 vs the Top 100 in the RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORU82 Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 I just looked at Yale's schedule, how Yale has an RPI of 48 is beyond me. They have basically played no one beyond Clemson who whipped them like a rented mule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 By winning the Big XII tournament and earning an automatic NCAA bid as an EIGHT SEED, Oklahoma State just stole a #3 Seed in the regionals - doesn't help ORU's case on that front one bit. P.S. Big XII commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who I would imagine is a very busy man, on hand in Oklahoma City to present the championship trophy to the Cowboys following their win. Just wondering what is annually so important on Summit League commissioner Tom Douple's schedule that he can't ever be in Tulsa to recognize the SL baseball tournament champion? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 To dig a little deeper based on RPI for the automatic qualifiers, it looks like there will be exactly 16 teams with an RPI below ORU's. Pac-12 Oregon State 1 SEC LSU (likely) 6 Conference USA Southern Miss (8) or Rice (47) 8 ACC Florida State 11 Big West Long Beach State 14 American Athletic Houston 18 Sun Belt South Alabama 33 Atlantic Sun Florida Gulf Coast 35 Big 12 OSU (44) or TX (16) 44 Ivy League Yale 48 Southland Sam Houston State 54 West Coast BYU 59 Missouri Valley Dallas Baptist (likely) 63 Mid-Eastern Bethune-Cookman 75 Summit League Oral Roberts 80 Big Ten Iowa 84 Mountain West San Diego State (likely) 86 BIg East Xavier 87 OVC Tennessee Tech 93 Horizon UIC 99 Metro Atlantic Marist 111 Colonial Delaware 124 Atlantic 10 Davidson 125 Southern UNC Greensboro (likely) 129 Northeast Central Connecticut State 147 America East UMBC 157 Big South Radford 160 WAC Sacramento State 177 Mid-American Ohio 191 Patriot Holy Cross 210 SWAC Texas Southern 266 So, ORU will be right on the edge of a 3-seed or a 4-seed. Perhaps with our previous history and several Big 12 wins this year, we will receive a 3-seed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ManiacAlum Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Warren Nolan currently has us right behind Iowa and San Diego St at 83. Not sure how we dropped after OSU winning today. Whichever regional or seed we end up with, please let there be a Big 12 team there. With the exception of TCU and maybe Tech, they all seemed to be a bit overvalued this year. OSU lost 9 of 10 going into Bedlam and had a conference record of 8-14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Yes those RPIs are from D1baseball.com and are a day old. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 I think either OU or OSU will end up in Fayetteville, but obviously not both. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 Beating #44 OSU twice in the past month has to help #83 ORU's case for a 3 seed....plus our top 3 starting pitchers are a combined 29-5 with an ERA of just over 2.00....as mentioned above...no #1 seed will want to face ORU as a #4 seed...if the committee has any sense they will make us a 3 seed...if Yale is a 3 and ORU a 4...that's just idiocy.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 Here is another question: Does Folmar keep the same #1, #2, and #3 starting pitcher order? If so, he would risk Miguel Ausua, the Summit League Conference Pitcher of the Year and Conference Tournament MVP perhaps never even getting a chance to take the field (if ORU went 0-2 in a regional). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted May 29, 2017 Author Share Posted May 29, 2017 There were 16 eventual AQ tourney teams with RPIs below ORU when the day began. However, three of them won their championship game and jumped us with the win (Xavier, Iowa, San Diego State). I think we probably end up as a #4, but as a high #4 may be assigned to Houston, which captured the final #1 seed (and home field advantage). However, with Arkansas not earning a national seed, and ORU as a low three/high four just 120 miles away, the committee may have a hard time not booking that one. And with Missouri State as a 2 and Okla State as a 3? I'm guessing Fayetteville or Houston, with a slight edge to Fayetteville. And low three or high four, with edge to a four. A win or two back in March in Minneapolis might have made the difference to push us to a three seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted May 29, 2017 Author Share Posted May 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORUJason said: Here is another question: Does Folmar keep the same #1, #2, and #3 starting pitcher order? If so, he would risk Miguel Ausua, the Summit League Conference Pitcher of the Year and Conference Tournament MVP perhaps never even getting a chance to take the field (if ORU went 0-2 in a regional). I think if one of the teams in our region has a significant difference in average between RHP and LHP, we adjust our rotation accordingly. That said, I would be very surprised if Ausua is not on the mound in one of the first two games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUalum Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 final projections...... D1baseball.com (5/29) Arkansas Missouri St Ok State ORU Baseball America (5/28) Arkansas Oklahoma Miami ORU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue82 Posted May 29, 2017 Author Share Posted May 29, 2017 Warren Nolan (5/29) Arkansas Oklahoma ORU Tennessee Tech Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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