Jump to content

Aaron Anderson (the straw that stirs the drink)


TrueBlue82

Recommended Posts

I am a self-proclaimed stat-geek, as anyone who really knows me will confirm.  Over the weekend, I went back through our last six games (our five game losing streak and the IUPUI win) and analyzed the TEAM’S performance based upon who was on the floor at the time.  Without going into too much detail, I analyzed each player based upon how many minutes they played, and the game score when they entered the game and again when they left – and then compared this score differential to the “average” flow of the game.  For example, if Darian Harris played 20 minutes of a game, and during those 20 minutes, we outscored the opponents by 2, but ended up losing the game by 6, Darian would get a +5. (A six point loss in forty minutes would equal an average deficit of 3 for twenty minutes, but DH was plus 2 for his twenty minutes, a difference of five). 

Now I know that there are a lot of flaws with this analysis, such as the team may play well even when the player is not, or a player could enter the game after a foul and timeout on the floor, and an opponent immediately makes two FT that had NOTHING to do with the new player.  And, pity the five that were on the floor when Denver poured it on in the last few minutes at the Mabee Center!

But, over several games, you begin to see some interesting trends.  And, by comparing to final margin of the game, each player scores a plus, a neutral, or a minus, but add all of the scores for the team together, and it nets to zero.  In essence, over a long enough period of time, this should provide a statistical insight into what players help make the team better and what players may drag down the performance on a given night.

What REALLY surprised me is this…  In EACH of the six games, Aaron Anderson had a positive score, which is AMAZING.  No one else was even close.  And, incredibly, Aaron was one of those on the court at the end of the Denver game!  For example, against Denver, AA played 35 minutes, and in those 35 minutes we were outscored by 14 (or 2 points every five minutes).  But, for the FIVE minutes he was NOT on the court, we were outscored by 10!

The stats are even more dramatic from last weekend at IUPUI.  AA played 36 minutes, in which we outscored them by 18. In the FOUR minutes that he was out of the game, IUPUI cut into the deficit by 12.  That is an incredible momentum swing!

Against WIU, AA played 32 minutes, in which we outscored the Leathernecks by two.  In the other eight minutes, we were a minus five.

I would think that this is a total fluke, but he has been a “plus” every game (which is also REALLY hard to do with the amount of minutes that he plays - the more playing time, the closer you move to the average).  Game after game, Aaron is definitely the straw that stirs the drink on this team.

If someone can provide advice on importing a chart, I can report everyone’s plus/minus score for each of the six games.  As you can imagine, the other guards don’t fare as well, as they are playing most of the minutes that AA doesn’t!   As an example, there may be a good reason Dez may still not be getting a lot of playing time.  In only five minutes on the court in these six games, ORU has been outscored by nine  .For the big guys, E-Man has been a net positive in four of the six games, and Albert has been average (3 plus, 3 minus).

Interesting stuff! (at least to me)

 

  Owens   Nzekwesi   Bradley   Anderson   Martin   Harris   Young   Miller   Dez                      
  IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT                    
at NDSU -13 3 -4 -6 -11 1 -6 -4 -4 -6 -3 -7 -12 2 3 -13 0 0              
-10 36 -9 13 -3.25 38 -9.5 37 -9.25 36 -9 15 -3.75 21 -5.25 4 -1 0 0                
    -0.111   -0.058   -0.039   0.088   0.139   0.050   -0.321   1.000   #DIV/0!                
FW -3 -1 -9 5 -8 4 -2 -2 -9 5 2 -6 9 -13 0 0 0 0                    
-4 31 -3.1 24 -2.4 37 -3.7 40 -4 19 -1.9 22 -2.2 27 -2.7 0 0 0 0                    
    0.003   -0.275   -0.116   0.050   -0.374   0.191   0.433   #DIV/0!   #DIV/0!                    
DEN -24 0 4 -28 -25 1 -14 -10 -17 -7 -8 -16 -32 8 0 0 -4 -20                    
-24 26 -15.6 20 -12 36 -21.6 35 -21 31 -18.6 15 -9 35 -21 0 0 2 -1.2                    
    -0.323   0.800   -0.094   0.200   0.052   0.067   -0.314   #DIV/0!   -1.400                    
at SDSU -4 -3 -3 -4 -6 -1 -3 -4 -6 -1 -4 -3 -6 -1 -3 -4 0 0                    
-7 38 -6.65 35 -6.125 38 -6.65 27 -4.725 35 -6.125 5 -0.875 20 -3.5 2 -0.35 0 0                    
    0.070   0.089   0.017   0.064   0.004   -0.625   -0.125   -1.325   #DIV/0!                    
WIU -4 1 2 -5 -8 5 2 -5 -4 1 -5 2 0 -3 1 -4 1 -4                    
-3 32 -2.4 22 -1.65 34 -2.55 32 -2.4 25 -1.875 12 -0.9 34 -2.55 8 -0.6 1 -0.075                    
    -0.050   0.166   -0.160   0.138   -0.085   -0.342   0.075   0.200   1.075                    
IUPUI 7 -1 5 1 10 -4 18 -12 8 -2 -2 8 -11 17 1 5 -6 12                    
6 30 4.5 12 1.8 35 5.25 36 5.4 30 4.5 26 3.9 20 3 9 1.35 2 0.3                    
    0.083   0.267   0.136   0.350   0.117   -0.227   -0.700   -0.039   -3.150                    
Summary -41 -1 -5 -37 -48 6 -5 -37 -32 -10 -20 -22 -52 10 2 -16 -9 -12                    
  193   126   218   207   176   95   157   23   5                      
Per game +/-   -1.813   5.913   -1.697   5.986   0.227   -3.021   -5.096   4.522   -64.200  

 

 

 

Score differential while in game Score differential while out of game
Minutes Played Score differential expected for minutes played
  Per-minute Plus/Minus scoring

 

  • Upvote 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to have some facts to back up what my lying eyes have been telling me all season.

Simply put, Deuce is the toughest guy on the team, the strongest pound-for-pound, and the most versatile.

He deserved a better fate in his senior year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When Anderson was out of the lineup early in the season, his absence was noticeable. Probably most apparent when he left at the end of the South Carolina game. Nice work on the analytics, JB!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...