Pre-season Predictions 2014-15

[TrueBlue82]

Time for my annual "preview of coming attractions".  As usual, I'll break it down by month, home/away/neutral, Summit/Non-Conference.  Please add your own picks, and follow your own format.

 

Overall, I think we're going to be a much better team in March than we are in November - which could cause some growing pains early on.  I don't think Obi is ready for prime-time yet, which is normal after the injury he sustained.  He will gain confidence as the year goes along.  What I DO like about this team is the character and leadership qualities, the team chemistry, and the balance of talent across eight or nine players.  Ultimately, those factors will help the team improve throughout the season, and we will see a championship contender once the Summit season and tournament begin.

 

November:

I hope I'm wrong, but TU has the maturity and the revenge factor playing in their favor - and Obi is not 100%, so I don't see us getting our first win until a split in Las Vegas.  However, the loss to TU will be our only home loss of the season.

Overall: 1-4

 

December:

Road trips are all against legitimate opponents, and although we might "steal" a victory somewhere, we have an equal chance of dropping a home game to Missouri State or NMSU, so I'll stick with winning at home, losing on the road.

Overall: 3-5; Cumulative 4-9

 

January:

Championship contenders win at home and split on the road, and I think we'll be good enough by January to do just that.  The Summit is down (a bit) this year - and we should fit right back into the top-tier of the conference.

Overall: 7-2; Cumulative: 11-11; Summit 6-2

 

February:

Same form holds for the final stretch of the conference schedule, win all at home and split on the road.  However, we might only lose less than two road games if we've hit our full potential.

Overall: 6-2; Cumulative 17-13; Summit 12-4

 

March:

If we can stay out of SDSU's side of the bracket, we can avoid a huge home court advantage - and advance to the championship game. And, if the team has progressed as much as I think they will, we will go dancing as a 15 seed, and become a popular upset pick by the pundits.

Overall: 3-1; Cumulative 20-14; Summit Tourney 3-0; NCAA Tourney 0-1

 

Summary: 20-14 record; Home 12-1; Away 4-11; Neutral 1-1; Summit Tourn 3-0, NCAA 0-1

 

Avg. Points per game: 72

 

Scoring:

Billbury 17

Emegano 15 (although Obi will have a higher Summit ppg average than Korey)

Harris 6

Conley 6

Word 5

Lee 5

Henderson 4

Webber 4

Singleton 4

Owens 3

Others combined 3

 

Leading rebounder:

Billbury

[Old Titan]

This year presents a number of handicapping challenges: large turnover in the ORU roster, Obi's health, a new conference slate against teams facing similar challenges, plus the typical wild-card non-conference schedule.

All I have to go on is the eye test in the exhibition games. Saw nothing to suggest this team will dominate what appears to be a daunting schedule, but neither did I see any glaring deficiencies that might prevent success along the lines of TrueBlue82's rosy assessment.

But, as the designated Grumpy Old Man in this annual erercise, I'm once again taking the "unders": I'll guess 5-9 in non-conference play (the W's coming in the two non-D1 games, MSU here, a Vegas win, plus another "wild card" victory somewhere), 11-5 in the Summit League (all 5 losses on the road, at least one inexplicable) for a #2 or #3 Seed in Sioux Falls, a first-round win, followed by the whole season riding on the outcome of the semis and finals games (nothing new there).

But a +/- of 3 or even 4 games either way wouldn't be a total shock - just a surprise.

[ORUalum]

have we forgotten that ORU finished 6th in a worse conference last year?

 

a game or two over .500 and a 4th or 5th place finish in the league.  however, if Korey and Obi stay healthy, i'll say they are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the conf tournament and then who knows what can happen.

[SOLO_Gold]

John Klein made a good point in this Tulsa World video –– ORU has had good teams play good regular seasons but we have a hard time getting over the hump in conference tournaments. Rosters are not the constant in this equation so ... 

[Old Titan]

John Klein made a good point in this Tulsa World video –– ORU has had good teams play good regular seasons but we have a hard time getting over the hump in conference tournaments. Rosters are not the constant in this equation so ... 

 

Consistency over the long run = point guard play

 

Not blowing big leads = point guard play

 

Winning on the road and in tournament play = point guard play

[ORUTerry]

Apparent weakness on this team: point guard play

[oruvoice]

So, perhaps we see a different 5 than in the exhibition games, with Obi at point guard, Korey & either Word or Harris at the off guards, with Conley/Drew alternating at the 4 and Henderson/Owens alternating at the 5?

[Old Titan]

A little scary that the point guard spot appeared more settled LAST year at this time, with DJ Jackson running the show, than after two exhibition games this season.

[tmh8286]

In the pregame talk during the "ORU Game Night" dinner Wade Mason indicated that NO decision had been made regarding point guard, and that there was considerable competition for same.