Old Titan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 You heard me. Here's why: 1st, 2nd and 3rd Place in the regular season race are all but locks for SFA, Sam Houston State, and A&M-CC. 4th place is still a toss-up between ORU, Northwestern State, and Nicholls State, who all sit at 8-6 right now. But, what's so great about 4th Place, other than getting a pass on the first day of play? Nothing - here's why: Whoever ends up in 4th Place gets the winner of the first-round 5-vs-8 game. If ORU finishes 4th, they would likely play Northwestern State in the 4-vs-5 second-round match-up. And, if ORU is fortunate enough to win that game, guess who waits in the semi's: No. 1 SFA, with an automatic bye to that point. Same eventual issues if ORU finishes 5th: if they win the 5-vs-8 game on the first day, they must face the #4 seed on Day 2 (probably NWS), with SFA still looming in the semi's. But consider this scenario: a SIXTH place finish gets ORU a 6-vs-7 first-round game, followed by quarterfinal and semi-final games against Sam Houston State and A&M-CC, in one order or the other, with no SFA until the finals. Doesn't that road to the finals sound more palatable than the 4th Place route? The only way to guarantee a 6th place finish is by dropping two of the next four games, which frankly may not be much of a problem, since the Golden Eagles face none other than three of the top five teams in those last four games (SHSU, NWS, and SFA). Now, don't think for a minute that I'm suggesting ORU should tank in any of these games (though I'm convinced Oakland under Greg Kampe did just that in a similar scenario several years ago in the Mid-Con). But, here's the bottom line: don't get too upset if ORU drops two - or even three - of these final four games to finish 6th or even 7th in the regular season. It could end up being the first step on an unlikely path to the Southland tournament finals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 TheEagleman doesn't see ORU winning at Northwestern State or SFA....so that means 10-8 at best....I wouldn't even be shocked to see us lose at home vs. a very good Sam Houston State team....it will be interesting to see how things work out with tie breakers if we finish at 10-8.....but I still can't see us likely to win more than one game in the tournament.....still, ya never know.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUalum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 i'm not sure dropping the last 2 or 3 games going into the tournament is a recipe for success. i'd rather see ORU finish strong and let the chips fall where they may as far as tournament seeding. the team does seem to be playing better. Billbury is coming on strong and Webber is finally starting to contribute. holding a team that wants to get up and down the court like UCA to 50 pts at home is hopefully a sign that the team is buying in to playing better defense. if ORU finishes 6th or 7th in one of the worst leagues in D1 we may be entering the "dark ages of ORU basketball" as one poster previously suggested. things don't get easier next year heading back to the Summit. i just hope acceptance of mediocrity is not the new norm for ORU athletics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I hear ya, Alum....while I don't see ORU winning either of it's final two games on the road it certainly would be better for our confidence if we did.....if ORU could somehow finish the season on a 5 game winning streak that would be the most desireable result and heck with our seeding....we still gotta play the good teams anyway it's just a matter of when.....who knows....maybe we catch SFA having no motivation at all in that final game of the regular season.....TheEagleman can never root for ORU to lose no matter what the situation.....it's just the way I am wired....and the tournament is a crapshoot anyway.....last year who would have thought that SFA would be defeated after the season they had......same applies this year....SFA deserves the bid but it would not be shocking to see them have an off night and lose to NW State, SHSU, Corpus Cristi or even ORU...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 i'm not sure dropping the last 2 or 3 games going into the tournament is a recipe for success. i'd rather see ORU finish strong and let the chips fall where they may as far as tournament seeding. the team does seem to be playing better. Billbury is coming on strong and Webber is finally starting to contribute. holding a team that wants to get up and down the court like UCA to 50 pts at home is hopefully a sign that the team is buying in to playing better defense. if ORU finishes 6th or 7th in one of the worst leagues in D1 we may be entering the "dark ages of ORU basketball" as one poster previously suggested. things don't get easier next year heading back to the Summit. i just hope acceptance of mediocrity is not the new norm for ORU athletics. MUCH more concerned about which BRACKET in Katy that ORU falls in, rather than what PLACE they finish. My point: if 1st, 2nd and 3rd Place are out of the question (and they are), then starting from 6th or 7th Place would be an easier road to the conference finals than 4th or 5th Place. It's the same reason no one wants the dreaded 8-vs-9 match-up in the NCAA tournament: I win gets you up against a No. 1 Seed in the second round. Speaking of the NCAA tournament specifically, and post-season basketball in general: momentum heading-in is highly overrated. Each year, every at-large team in the NCAA tournament (and EVERY team in the NIT, CBI and similar tournaments) losses their previous game in their conference tournament; many then proceed to get hot and string off consecutive wins. As long as ORU can somehow play their best basketball of the season in the Southland Tournament, it really matters not whether they finish the regular season 4-0, 2-2, or 0-4.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Good points on both sides......but yeah, the 4/5 game is likely a spot that would surely guarantee early elimination vs. a well rested SFA team..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUJason Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 You will probably have to play SFA either way. As inconsistent as this team has been, I think only having to win 3 games instead of 4 games certainly increases your odds. I will take the 4 seed if I can get it. Also, as mentally fragile as this team has been, if they could string together several wins against the better teams in the conference, it would certainly give them more confidence and plant a seed of doubt in their opponent's mind. The next question then would be if you somehow win the Southland tournament, would you be in the play in game? The more wins you have, the better your RPI and the better chance of avoiding the play in game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 You will probably have to play SFA either way. As inconsistent as this team has been, I think only having to win 3 games instead of 4 games certainly increases your odds. I will take the 4 seed if I can get it. Also, as mentally fragile as this team has been, if they could string together several wins against the better teams in the conference, it would certainly give them more confidence and plant a seed of doubt in their opponent's mind. The next question then would be if you somehow win the Southland tournament, would you be in the play in game? The more wins you have, the better your RPI and the better chance of avoiding the play in game. If I have to play SFA, I want it to be in the title game, not the semi's. You know it's going to be a war to beat them, whenever you play them. Do it in the semi's, and you might have nothing left in the tank for the championship game. Better to face them in the finals, when you know you can leave it all on the floor with no worries for the next day, and when the bright glare of the proverbial national spotlight might mess with them a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oruvoice Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 SFA is currently ranked 29th in the nation, by one poll. Good points on both sides. Advantages to the 6-7 seed and the 4-5 seed. That said, I lean towards the 4 seed. That will mean will have swept this week's home games and likely split next week's roadie, with some momentum heading toward Katy and only have to win 3 games... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 BOLD PREDICTION: ORU goes 2-2 (maybe 1-3) in the next four games (Lamar at home the only guaranteed win, SHSU a toss-up on Senior Night, 0-2 at SFA and NWS), gets the #6 Seed, beats McNeese State in the 6-vs-7 first-round game, upsets #3 A&M-CC and #2 SHSU in the quarters and semi's, then falls to #1 SFA in the finals*. Final Record of 19-16, no postseason. * If true, fairly certain this would be the first time a Scott Sutton team has ever overachieved its seeding in a conference tournament, which upon further review is a testament to how many times Scott has guided teams to either a No. 1 or 2 Seed in regular season play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 BOLD PREDICTION: ORU goes 2-2 (maybe 1-3) in the next four games (Lamar at home the only guaranteed win, SHSU a toss-up on Senior Night, 0-2 at SFA and NWS), gets the #6 Seed, beats McNeese State in the 6-vs-7 first-round game, upsets #3 A&M-CC and #2 SHSU in the quarters and semi's, then falls to #1 SFA in the finals*. Final Record of 19-16, no postseason. * If true, fairly certain this would be the first time a Scott Sutton team has ever overachieved its seeding in a conference tournament, which upon further review is a testament to how many times Scott has guided teams to either a No. 1 or 2 Seed in regular season play. Love it when I get to correct myself, thus beating anyone else to the punch: 2000 Mid-Con Tournament, Ft. Wayne, Ind. Quarterfinals: #5 ORU 67, #4 Youngstown State 59 Semifinals: #1 Valparaiso 71, #5 ORU 56 2001 Mid-Con Tournament, Ft. Wayne, Ind. Quarterfinals: #6 ORU 73, #3 Youngstown State 70 Semifinal: #2 Southern Utah 73, #6 ORU 62 So, twice in 15 seasons ORU has upset a higher-seeded team in conference tournament play. Tthough, based on previous history, I would feel a lot better about ORU's chances of doing it a third time if A.) they were playing against Youngstown State, or B.) the tournament was in Ft. Wayne, Indiana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORUIllini Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 BOLD PREDICTION: ORU goes 2-2 (maybe 1-3) in the next four games (Lamar at home the only guaranteed win, SHSU a toss-up on Senior Night, 0-2 at SFA and NWS), gets the #6 Seed, beats McNeese State in the 6-vs-7 first-round game, upsets #3 A&M-CC and #2 SHSU in the quarters and semi's, then falls to #1 SFA in the finals*. Final Record of 19-16, no postseason. * If true, fairly certain this would be the first time a Scott Sutton team has ever overachieved its seeding in a conference tournament, which upon further review is a testament to how many times Scott has guided teams to either a No. 1 or 2 Seed in regular season play. OT...great stuff by you and all in regards to the last couple of weeks of the regular season and conference tourney. In my opinion, the fact that we are having this discussion indicates that we believe this team may be hitting its stride at just the right time....... I see ORU winning both games at home this weekend and going 1-1 on the road next week, picking up a win at NWST. for a 17-14 record. As the 4th seed I see ORU going 1-1 for a 18-15 record. Would I be crazy to think that a record like that would not be good enough for a CIT or CBI bid?... which I honestly believe if ORU got in could put together 3 or 4 wins and provide a great ending to a season that has be quite rocky to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hitting our stride?...uh....no.....anything could happen and usually does but TheEagleman doesn't see it.....ORU probably goes 1-3 maybe 2-2 to finish the regular season.....doesn't get one of the first 4 seeds and has to play in the first round....I will give us a win there but that's probably about it.....i guess it's possible we beat NW State in the 2nd round since it's difficult to beat a relatively equal opponent 3 times in one season......but then a far superior SFA team would end our year......no CBI this year I would thing.....but then again....ya never know....we must finish over .500 to get consideration....gonna be tight.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Would I be crazy to think that a record like that would not be good enough for a CIT or CBI bid?... which I honestly believe if ORU got in could put together 3 or 4 wins and provide a great ending to a season that has be quite rocky to say the least. "...crazy GENEROUS!!" Seriously, hard to imagine a scenario where a fourth-place ORU gets picked for the CBI, and no way a 5th- or 6th-place finish earns postseason play: too many other teams in the Southland (and other conferences) above ORU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orumbb_insider Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Here's the thing. Either way we are going to face SFA. If we have the fourth seed I believe it would be better to face then in the semis coming off a good win with confidence, I like our chances! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORU82 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 ORU BB. - Anyone, anywhere, anytime! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeagleman5 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Tonight proves anything can happen in the Southland Tournament at Katy....3-11 Central Arkansas whips 11-3 Sam Houston State, 80-71.....SFA remains unbeaten though as they are beating New Orleans on the road by 35 in the final minutes.....The Lumberjacks are gonna be prohibitive favorites....no way they want to get upset in the final two years in a row.....SFA could possibly be a 10 or 11 seed in the dance....certainly no lower than a 12 if they run the table.....they will give the higher seed a very rough game in the NCAA first round...and could win to advance to a 2nd game.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Titan Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here's the thing. Either way we are going to face SFA. If we have the fourth seed I believe it would be better to face then in the semis coming off a good win with confidence, I like our chances! No, HERE's the thing: either way, ORU is going to get BEAT by SFA if they cross paths in Katy. You want that in the anonymity of the semi's, or on national TV in the finals? Take your pick. I personally choose the finals - it would be an accomplishment for this team just to get there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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