25 replies to this topic

[lamb740]

Murray State!!

Murray State's only loss has dropped their RPI all the way to 52. This is interesting because Murray State has an average projection of a 6 seed out of the 60 brackets on The Bracket Project (granted, a few of the projections haven't factored in their loss yet). ORU, with its 46 RPI, has an average projection of a 13 seed. If ORU can win out the regular season and get their RPI into the low 30's by season's end, it will be interesting to see if they might be able to get some projections for a 10 or even single digit seed. *fingers crossed*

In related news, Akron's RPI has moved up to 50 over the past couple weeks which could give ORU a quality top 50 RPI win with a victory.

[coprau]

I'm just hoping to see the 5-12 upset this year.

[ORUalum]

lamb740, on 11 February 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

Murray State!!

Murray State's only loss has dropped their RPI all the way to 52. This is interesting because Murray State has an average projection of a 6 seed out of the 60 brackets on The Bracket Project (granted, a few of the projections haven't factored in their loss yet). ORU, with its 46 RPI, has an average projection of a 13 seed. If ORU can win out the regular season and get their RPI into the low 30's by season's end, it will be interesting to see if they might be able to get some projections for a 10 or even single digit seed. *fingers crossed*

In related news, Akron's RPI has moved up to 50 over the past couple weeks which could give ORU a quality top 50 RPI win with a victory.

good points...kinda been going through withdrawls with rpiforecast.com being down the last few days. i need to find another site that has up to date rpi.

[Dr. Cornelius]

Texas Tech beat Oklahoma for their first Big 12 win. So that should help.

[tmh8286]

ORUalum, on 11 February 2012 - 09:22 PM, said:

good points...kinda been going through withdrawls with rpiforecast.com being down the last few days. i need to find another site that has up to date rpi.

Yeah - I wonder what's up with that?

Statsheet.com had frequently updated RPI - and DAILY historical data as well. Want to know what our RPI was on Feb. 11, 2004? They got it. Pretty amazing database.

[tmh8286]

Dr. Cornelius, on 11 February 2012 - 09:31 PM, said:

Texas Tech beat Oklahoma for their first Big 12 win. So that should help.

The win by Texas Tech or the loss by Oklahoma?

[ORUJason]

Quote

Texas Tech beat Oklahoma for their first Big 12 win. So that should help.

The win by Texas Tech or the loss by Oklahoma?

Since we have played both of these teams this year, it is pretty much an RPI wash when Texas Tech wins and OU loses. It would help if they would both start winning. It has been a tough road for Billy Gillespie this year at Texas Tech. I think that is their first Big 12 win this season. I'm sure Lon Kruger can't be very happy about it.

[TrueBlue82]

Just saw a shocking statistic...

liverpi.com currently lists ORU as RPI #47, with an overall strength of schedule rank of 171 - and a non-conference SOS rank of 200. Which, unless I'm misinterpreting these numbers, means that our Summit League schedule to date has actually IMPROVED our overall strength of schedule compared to our non-conference schedule. I'm pretty confident that this is a phenomenon never before experienced in ORU's Mid-Con/Summit era, and can be attributed to the strongest Summit League ever AND a non-conference schedule that was somewhat watered down by our participation in the Pre-season NIT, which gave us the likes of UAPB, FIU and SMU.

This SOS difference will narrow (and could even flip the other way) within the next week, after a non-conference game with #62 Akron and a Summit trip to #245 SUU, but it is still a pretty incredible statistic. If you had told me at the beginning of the year that our Summit schedule would be the toughest part of our season, I certainly wouldn't have believed it!

[tmh8286]

Good post, Blue.

[Jacks02]

TrueBlue82, on 16 February 2012 - 08:18 PM, said:

Just saw a shocking statistic...

liverpi.com currently lists ORU as RPI #47, with an overall strength of schedule rank of 171 - and a non-conference SOS rank of 200. Which, unless I'm misinterpreting these numbers, means that our Summit League schedule to date has actually IMPROVED our overall strength of schedule compared to our non-conference schedule. I'm pretty confident that this is a phenomenon never before experienced in ORU's Mid-Con/Summit era, and can be attributed to the strongest Summit League ever AND a non-conference schedule that was somewhat watered down by our participation in the Pre-season NIT, which gave us the likes of UAPB, FIU and SMU.

This SOS difference will narrow (and could even flip the other way) within the next week, after a non-conference game with #62 Akron and a Summit trip to #245 SUU, but it is still a pretty incredible statistic. If you had told me at the beginning of the year that our Summit schedule would be the toughest part of our season, I certainly wouldn't have believed it!

That is pretty interesting. Hopefully it helps one of us get a decent seed (12?) come tournament time.

[theeagleman5]

TheEagleman would have to say that ORU should get a 12 seed if we run the table and finish 29-5.....that could get us a game with the likes of Florida State or Louisville.....just hazarding a guess....

[lamb740]

theeagleman5, on 16 February 2012 - 09:10 PM, said:

TheEagleman would have to say that ORU should get a 12 seed if we run the table and finish 29-5.....that could get us a game with the likes of Florida State or Louisville.....just hazarding a guess....

If we run the table and finish 29-5, right now RPIforecast.com projects we'll finish with an RPI of 21.9! With a 21.9 RPI, we'll have an RPI higher than several top 25 teams! If that was the case, I'd venture a guess that'd we'd get at least an 11 seed and possibly even a 10 or 9. Again, this is territory our program has never experienced in the modern era of college basketball.

[tmh8286]

lamb740, on 16 February 2012 - 10:54 PM, said:

If we run the table and finish 29-5, right now RPIforecast.com projects we'll finish with an RPI of 21.9! With a 21.9 RPI, we'll have an RPI higher than several top 25 teams! If that was the case, I'd venture a guess that'd we'd get at least an 11 seed and possibly even a 10 or 9. Again, this is territory our program has never experienced in the modern era of college basketball.

It will be interesting to see if we're able to run the table - we've just played three of the lower teams in the conference very closely, and two of those games at home. We either peaked too early or just need to pull things together. I think the game tomorrow could very easily set the stage for the rest of the season. If we play poorly and lose to Akron tomorrow it is conceivable that it could set up a rough patch where we struggle to win any more games this season. On the other hand if we win, it could give us the confidence boost we need to shake off the funk of the past three games and manage to win games from here on out.

If we can do that it will be very interesting to see where they end up seeding us. This is mentioned on here pretty often, but keep in mind that MSU had an RPI of 21 and didn't even MAKE the tournament with an at-large bid a few years back, when Barry Henson was at the helm. The selection process is a very subjective one, and it's just hard to figure how much they will reward or disdain ORU in the process if we were fortunate enough to win out from here. Only once in the history of the conference has a team been rewarded with a seed higher than a 12 - and that was in 1990, when Missouri State received a 9-seed. Only four times has the conference even gotten a 12, and all of those occurred before ORU was in the conference. The highest during the ORU era has been a 13. It was a 13-seeded Valpo that beat Mississippi State with "The Shot" in the 1998 NCAA Tournament. ORU got a 13-seed in their last appearance in the tournament in 2008

Based on a historical perspective it's hard to imagine us getting a 9- or 10-seed, but it will just depend on how the committee looks at our record. Beating #60 Akron and #63 SDSU in our last five games of the season should surely help, if we're successful in accomplishing those things.

STILL A LOT OF BASKETBALL TO GO, THOUGH! Sure don't want to be counting our chickens before they hatch! Before we need to be worrying about our tournament seed we've got to win five very difficult games. There are no gimmes from here out. I think at this point we have the roughest road to the tournament of any ORU team in recent years. Tthat path almost certainly will require one or more wins against the EXTREMELY dangerous teams of SDSU, NDSU and Oakland, and taking place in the back yard of SDSU. It's going to be TOUGH from here on out!

[ORUJason]

Basically the difference between the ORU that was firing on all cylinders during the middle part of the season and the ORU team that has been struggling to pull out victories in their last 5-6 games is 3 point FG shooting %. We have averaged less than 30% 3 point % over the last 6 games. Prior to that, we were shooting at a 45-50% 3 point % average for several games in a row.

While our defense has not been perfect, it has been pretty solid and more consistent than last year. Our overall FG % has been around or just under 50%. We have kept turnovers down with only a couple exceptions. The FT shooting % has also been around 70-75% almost every game. This consistency in other areas of our game has allowed us to win games even though our 3 point shooting has been off.

I agree that a win against Akron may get us out of the funk we've been in (which has actually been just a 3 point shooting funk) and propel us with momentum into the final roadie at SUU and then the Summit League tournament. What we really need is for our 3 point shooters to spend some extra time shooting in the gym.

[ORUTerry]

Our three point shooting funk is somewhat related to how opponents have been playing us: they are playing very physical against both Niles & Morrison and working hard to deny them the basketball. I am convinced that we are not running all of the normal sets for DoMo or Niles - holding them back for the tournament? Having Manghum hurt has not helped either. We need the other guards (Pearson, Manghum or Lliteras) to make outside jumpers to loosen up the defense a bit. The key is to play tough defense, rebound and limit turnovers. If the three pointers are not falling, don't force it and find another way to score.

[OKC Eagle]

Notwithstanding the close game at IPFW, I am encouraged that Niles and Craion both seemed to break out of their slumps. Morrison will get points, whether pretty or ugly. But, I think as Craion, and to a slightly lesser extent, Niles, go, so goes the team. When we have Craion playing his best ball and everybody else doing what they are supposed to do, we are at our best. Of course to win a tournament game, the 3s will have to be falling.

[ORUJason]

No doubt Terry that teams play Morrison and if they can Niles more physically than earlier in the year. But we have also seen a lot of zone to try to slow down Roundtree, Craion , DBH, etc. Which has still led to some open looks. We basically need to knock down those open looks with regularity and the rest will take care of itself. I know that is easier said than done.

[ORUTerry]

_{We have (and will see) some match up zone and triangle & two defenses to try to neutralize Morrison and Niles. Just have to attack the defense and make shots.}

[ORUalum]

Recent perfomances have me wondering if this team has peaked as well. The SDSU game was a clinic on how to beat ORU...get pearson in foul trouble early and make ORU play zone. They absolutely carved up ORU's zone with good passing from their big men. Hopefully ORU's bigs remember that game, because Dykstra outplayed ORU's entire frountcourt.

[ORUJason]

Quote

Recent perfomances have me wondering if this team has peaked as well. The SDSU game was a clinic on how to beat ORU...get pearson in foul trouble early and make ORU play zone. They absolutely carved up ORU's zone with good passing from their big men. Hopefully ORU's bigs remember that game, because Dykstra outplayed ORU's entire frountcourt.

The other two things that happened in that game were that we shot 3-pointers poorly while SDSU shot 3-pointers fairly well and we also had a larger number of turnovers than usual. Along with the items you mentioned, those issues really tell the story of the SDSU road loss.